Economy
KPMG Sees 9% Drop in Household Consumption Spending in Q1’23
By Adedapo Adesanya
The first quarter of the year came with many challenges for businesses and households in Nigeria, who had to deal with a heavy cash crunch while trying to navigate already existing headwinds in the macroeconomic environment.
According to its Macroeconomic Snapshot, a top consultancy firm, KPMG, the squeeze in the formal and informal sectors impacted nominal household consumption spending by 9 per cent between January and March 2023.
“We are estimating a year-on-year contraction in nominal household consumption expenditure by 9 per cent in Q1 2023 following these challenges,” it said.
It noted that this is as businesses faced substantial challenges on both the demand and supply sides.
“On the demand side, the combination of higher taxes on goods and services, hyperinflation which averaged 21.9 per cent in Q1 2023, monetary policy targeting demand to control inflation, and the cash shortages and disruptions in the electronic payment channels following the naira redesign policy constrained consumer demand,” it said.
“On the supply side, high cost of financing with the CBN interest rate hikes, higher energy costs, transport and distribution costs, and higher input costs especially given FX unavailability and instability, have also increased costs substantially year on year.
“Purchaser Manager Indices covering Q1 2023 had also shown persistent declining trends with some levels lower than what was obtained during the COVID-19 pandemic when the economy contracted and eventually entered a recession,” it added.
KPMG maintained its earlier estimate of a N10-15 trillion drop in nominal GDP and a Q1 real GDP growth of between 1.5 per cent – 2.0 per cent, given that there will be slower consumer demand and reduced earnings for businesses and, at the same time, rising costs of their operations.
This will, however, be largely dependent on if the oil sector can reverse its 11-quarter-long contraction, warning that further contraction from the oil sector may result in Q1 2023 real GDP growth of -0.23 per cent – 1.18 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three bellwether stocks lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.62 per cent on Friday, December 12 with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) jumping by 22.20 points to 3,600.43 points from 3,578.23 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N13.28 billion to close at N2.154 trillion from the previous day’s N2.140 trillion.
During the session, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N2.53 to close at N39.71 per share compared with the previous day’s N37.18 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc added 35 Kobo to its price to finish at N5.00 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N4.65 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 23 Kobo appreciation to sell at N60.23 per share versus N60.00 per share.
It was observed that yesterday, the price of Golden Capital Plc went down by N1.05 to N9.45 per unit from N10.50 per unit, and UBN Propertiy Plc declined by 21 Kobo to N2.01 per share from the N2.22 per share it was traded a day earlier.
There was a significant improvement in the level of activity for the day, as the volume of transactions increased by 6.2 per cent to 37.4 million units from the previous day’s 35.2 million units, the value of trades went up by 265.1 per cent to N4.9 billion from N1.4 billion, and the number of deals soared by 13.80 per cent to 33 deals from 29 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the last trading day of this week as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, the second spot was taken by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units traded for N9.5 billion, and third space was occupied by a new comer in MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units valued at N420.3 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 537.0 million units sold for N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bullish run on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited continued on Friday with a further 1.00 per cent growth buoyed by gains recorded by Guinness Nigeria, Champion Breweries, and others.
Data showed that the consumer goods space expanded by 1.53 per cent during the last trading session of the week, as the insurance counter grew by 0.51 per cent, and the industrial goods sector marginally gained 0.01 per cent.
However, the banking index depreciated by 0.54 per cent due to a pocket of profit-taking, and the energy industry shrank by 0.09 per cent, while the commodity sector closed flat.
Guinness Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N217.80, Morison Industries rose by 9.84 per cent to N4.69, Champion Breweries jumped by 9.69 per cent to N14.15, Austin Laz grew by 9.66 per cent to N2.27, and C&I Leasing appreciated by 9.62 per cent to N5.70.
Conversely, eTranzact lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N12.60, Chellarams slumped by 9.00 per cent to N13.20, Eunisell depleted by 9.89 per cent to N75.15, Africa Prudential moderated by 9.77 per cent to N12.00, and DAAR Communications decreased by 9.18 per cent to 89 Kobo.
The busiest stock on Friday was Access Holdings with 107.6 million units sold for N2.2 billion, Consolidated Hallmark traded 59.9 million units worth N245.8 million, Zenith Bank transacted 48.2 million units valued at N3.1 billion, Transcorp Power transacted 42.8 million units for N13.1 billion, and Champion Breweries exchanged 36.4 million units valued at N510.2 million.
At the close of business, a total of 602.8 million units worth N30.7 billion exchanged hands in 20,550 deals yesterday, in contrast to the 529.7 million units valued at N12.3 billion traded in 18,159 deals on Thursday, representing a surge in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 13.80 per cent, 149.59 per cent, and 13.17 per cent apiece.
Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) soared during the session by 1,485.89 points to 149,436.48 points from 147,950.59 points and the market capitalisation moved up by N945 billion to N95.264 trillion from N94.319 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
An intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the foreign exchange (FX) market eased the pressure on the Naira on Friday.
The apex bank sold forex to banks and other authorised dealers in the official window to defend the domestic currency, helping to calm the FX demand pressure, with the Nigerian currency appreciating against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by 0.11 per cent or N1.57 to sell at N1,454.50/$1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N1,456.07/$1.
Also, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N3.95 to close at N1,946.15/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,950.11/£1 but lost 10 Kobo on the Euro to quote at N1,706.46/€1 compared with the N1,706.36/€1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
At the black market segment, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar during the session at N1,470/$1 and also traded flat at N1,463/$1 at the GTBank forex counter.
Despite the sigh of relief, demand pressures outweighed the robust supply from the CBN and inflow from offshore players looking to participate at the OMO bills auction.
Gross FX reserves increased for the twenty fifth consecutive week, growing by a strong $396.84 million week-on-week to $45.44 billion.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was down on Friday as pressure remained after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday, which hinted at a possible rate cut pause in January. As a result, markets now expect only two rate cuts in 2026 instead of three.
However, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, who was against a December rate cut, said he expects more in 2026 than the current median projection.
Ethereum (ETH) slumped by 5.1 per cent to $3,090.61, Solana (SOL) declined by 4.5 per cent to $132.79, Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 3.8 per cent to $0.4103, and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 2.5 per cent to trade at $0.1373.
In addition, Bitcoin (BTC) lost 2.4 per cent to sell at $90,342.74, Litecoin (LTC) tumbled by 1.9 per cent to $81.86, Binance Coin (BNB) fell by 0.6 per cent to $886.93, and Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.5 per cent to $2.02, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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