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Lafarge Africa Plc: Making Hay While Prices Shine

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

After four successive quarters of losses, Lafarge Africa Plc reported N17.56 billion pre-tax profit in Q4-2016 on (1) price-driven 1004bps y/y and 3290bps q/q gross margin expansion, (2) other gains/operating income of N9.97 billion (vs. losses in previous quarters), and (3) investment/finance income of N2.88 billion (highest since Q2-2015).

Of the above mentioned items that impacted the fourth quarter result, the restoration of gross margin to the pre-2015 price-crash levels (given the uncertainty of other items) will be most defining of LAFARGE’s return to profitable performance in 2017.

Consequently, we have revised 2017 PAT forecast higher to N25.8 billion, from N11.2 billion previously. The PAT is also reflective of the elimination of forex-related losses as well as relatively higher sales volume.

Cement prices in Nigeria are currently above the end-2016 levels, following the additional increases (twice) effected this quarter. We estimate LAFARGE’s realized average Nigerian price to be 42 percent above 2016 average. In addition, we look for relatively lower per tonne production cost, given the earlier-than-expected progress made with energy substitution, and considering that about 50 percent of 2017 capex outlay will be committed to delivering energy optimization.

Notwithstanding the generally modest Nigerian cement consumption outlook, we forecast LAFARGE’s Nigerian cement sales volume to increase by c.7%, as markets lost in 2016 on production challenges (which limited supply capability) are reclaimed. For reference, Q4-2016 realized volume was 39 percent and 3 percent above Q3 and Q2 levels (during which energy challenges adversely impacted production) respectively, despite the relatively higher price.

In addition to pricing and efficiency gains, we estimate 2017 EBITDA of N64.34 billion, higher than both the previous estimate of N50.2 billion, and the N29.65 billion reported in 2016.

Following the revision to our forecasts, we have increased 2017 TP to N80.56 (from N60.10) and retain BUY recommendation on 107.37% upside. At current price, the stock is trading on a forward PE of 7.8x, at 37 percent and 5 percent discount respectively to Bloomberg’s SSA and Nigerian comparables.

While acknowledging the risks to earnings recovery in the short term, we think LAFARGE’s shares have faced intense pressure and expect the market price to rise to our 2017 TP on relatively (compared to 2016) better performance.

Key risk is that notwithstanding the expected lower production cost, the strength of LAFARGE’s profitability in 2017 has greater dependence on pricing development where we think the market leader (Dangote Cement) might a pull negative surprise.

While updating on DANGCEM, we noted that the Group targets sizeable absolute Nigerian EBITDA in 2017 which is realizable under a lower price (from current level, but above 2016 average) scenario. From our sensitivity test, LAFARGE risks losing up to N9 billion of the above forecast 2017 EBITDA on N32,000-N34,000 realized average price scenario (from the N42,000 estimated).

Target price under this scenario is N62.88, representing 57.60 percent upside from market value.

http://research.cordros.com/view-reports

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

UAE to Leave OPEC May 1

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Nigeria OPEC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United ‌Arab Emirates has announced its decision to quit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to focus on national interests.

This dealt ⁠a heavy ⁠blow to the oil-exporting group at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran had caused ⁠a historic energy shock and rattled the global economy.

The move, which will take effect on May 1, 2026, reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”, a statement carried by state media said on Tuesday.

“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” it added. “However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”

The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could create disarray and weaken the oil cartel, which has usually sought to show a united ⁠front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies.

“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to the level of production,” the minister said.

OPEC’s Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a ‌narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, because of threats and attacks against vessels during the war.

The UAE had been a member of OPEC first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when it became its own country in 1971.

The oil cartel, based in Vienna, has seen some of its market power wane as the US has increased its production of crude oil in recent years.

Additionally, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed over economic issues and regional politics, particularly in the Red Sea area.

The two countries had joined a coalition to fight against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis in 2015. However, that coalition broke down into recriminations in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for Yemeni separatists backed by the UAE.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Inches Up 0.03% as CSCS Outshines Four Price Decliners

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Nigerian OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc bested four price decliners on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday, April 27. The alternative stock market opened the week bullish during the session with a 0.03 per cent uptick.

According to data, the security depository company added N2.61 to its share price to close at N76.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N78.87 per unit.

As a result, the market capitalisation of the platform increased by N820 million to N2.425 trillion from N2.424 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 1.38 points to finish at 4,053.97 points compared with the 4,052.58 points it ended last Friday.

The four price losers were led by NASD Plc, which slumped by N3.80 to sell at N34.70 per share versus N38.50 per share. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc fell by N1.45 to N98.10 per unit from N99.55 per unit, Food Concepts Plc slid by 27 Kobo to N2.43 per share from N2.70 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 9 Kobo to N2.91 per unit from N3.00 per unit.

The value of securities transacted by market participants went down by 82.0 per cent to N7.4 million from N41.3 million units, the volume of securities declined by 28.5 per cent to 319,831 units from 447,403 units, and the number of deals dropped by 34.1 per cent to 29 deals from 44 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units sold for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.

Also, GNI Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with a turnover of 400 million units worth N1.2 billion.

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Economy

Naira Opens Week Weaker at N1,364/$ at NAFEX After N5.80 Loss

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NAFEX Rate

By Adedapo Adesanya

The first trading day of the week in the currency market was bearish for the Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, April 27.

Yesterday, it lost N5.80 or 0.43 per cent against the United States Dollar to trade at N1,364.24/$1, in contrast to the N1,358.44/$1 it was traded last Friday.

In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N13.70 to close at N1,847.72/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,834.02/£1, and slumped against the Euro by N11.56 to sell at N1,602.29/€1 versus N1,590.73/€1.

Also, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the greenback during the trading day by N5 to quote at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,370/$1.

The poor performance of the domestic currency could be attributed to liquidity shortage at the official currency market on Monday, which came amid surging demand for international payments. At $76.50 million, interbank liquidity printed higher across 79 deals, up from the $43.572 million reported on Friday.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined to $48.45 billion amid a month-long decline in inflows, amid uncertainties in the global commodity market. The depletion of foreign reserves could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the FX market.

The market remains perturbed by persistent concerns over liquidity constraints, policy transparency, and weakening confidence in Nigeria’s FX market, while boosters, including oil prices, continue to look rocky due to stalled discussions and unclear ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.

A look at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has been rejected near $79,000 three times in eight sessions, leaving the level as the de facto ceiling of its current trading range even as major cryptocurrencies trade lower over the past day. It lost 0.9 per cent to sell at $77,003.61.

Analysts say that upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decisions and top tech firms’ earnings this week could provide the catalyst to push bitcoin decisively above $80,000.

The market also continued to weigh Iran’s interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which failed to advance over the weekend. The White House said US officials were discussing the latest Iranian proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the eight-week war.

Solana (SOL) dropped 1.8 per cent to $84.25, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.6 per cent to $1.39, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $2,290.00, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 0.5 per cent to $625.18, and Cardano (ADA) fell by 0.2 per cent to $0.2480.

However, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.0 per cent to $0.1002, and TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3242, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

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