Economy
Lafarge Africa Plc: Making Hay While Prices Shine
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
After four successive quarters of losses, Lafarge Africa Plc reported N17.56 billion pre-tax profit in Q4-2016 on (1) price-driven 1004bps y/y and 3290bps q/q gross margin expansion, (2) other gains/operating income of N9.97 billion (vs. losses in previous quarters), and (3) investment/finance income of N2.88 billion (highest since Q2-2015).
Of the above mentioned items that impacted the fourth quarter result, the restoration of gross margin to the pre-2015 price-crash levels (given the uncertainty of other items) will be most defining of LAFARGE’s return to profitable performance in 2017.
Consequently, we have revised 2017 PAT forecast higher to N25.8 billion, from N11.2 billion previously. The PAT is also reflective of the elimination of forex-related losses as well as relatively higher sales volume.
Cement prices in Nigeria are currently above the end-2016 levels, following the additional increases (twice) effected this quarter. We estimate LAFARGE’s realized average Nigerian price to be 42 percent above 2016 average. In addition, we look for relatively lower per tonne production cost, given the earlier-than-expected progress made with energy substitution, and considering that about 50 percent of 2017 capex outlay will be committed to delivering energy optimization.
Notwithstanding the generally modest Nigerian cement consumption outlook, we forecast LAFARGE’s Nigerian cement sales volume to increase by c.7%, as markets lost in 2016 on production challenges (which limited supply capability) are reclaimed. For reference, Q4-2016 realized volume was 39 percent and 3 percent above Q3 and Q2 levels (during which energy challenges adversely impacted production) respectively, despite the relatively higher price.
In addition to pricing and efficiency gains, we estimate 2017 EBITDA of N64.34 billion, higher than both the previous estimate of N50.2 billion, and the N29.65 billion reported in 2016.
Following the revision to our forecasts, we have increased 2017 TP to N80.56 (from N60.10) and retain BUY recommendation on 107.37% upside. At current price, the stock is trading on a forward PE of 7.8x, at 37 percent and 5 percent discount respectively to Bloomberg’s SSA and Nigerian comparables.
While acknowledging the risks to earnings recovery in the short term, we think LAFARGE’s shares have faced intense pressure and expect the market price to rise to our 2017 TP on relatively (compared to 2016) better performance.
Key risk is that notwithstanding the expected lower production cost, the strength of LAFARGE’s profitability in 2017 has greater dependence on pricing development where we think the market leader (Dangote Cement) might a pull negative surprise.
While updating on DANGCEM, we noted that the Group targets sizeable absolute Nigerian EBITDA in 2017 which is realizable under a lower price (from current level, but above 2016 average) scenario. From our sensitivity test, LAFARGE risks losing up to N9 billion of the above forecast 2017 EBITDA on N32,000-N34,000 realized average price scenario (from the N42,000 estimated).
Target price under this scenario is N62.88, representing 57.60 percent upside from market value.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria added 150,000 barrels per day to its crude production in November 2024 as it continues to pursue an ambitious 2 million barrels per day target.
According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.48 million barrels per day in November, up from 1.33 million barrels per day the previous month.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC revealed that at 1.48 million barrels per day, it is the continent’s leading oil producer, surpassing Algeria’s 908,000 barrels per day and Congo’s 268,000 barrels per day.
Business Post reports that OPEC doesn’t account for condensates, which Nigeria’s accounts for in its broader 2 million barrels per day target.
Despite the surge in production levels, Nigeria is still under producing its 1.5 million barrels per day output quota under a deal involving OPEC and 10 other producers known as OPEC+.
OPEC said it relied on primary data gotten through direct communication, noting that secondary sources reported 1.417 million barrels per day as Nigeria’s crude production in November — up from 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
The data also shows that OPEC’s total oil production among its 12 members rose by 104,000 barrels per day in the month under review.
According to secondary sources, the total of the 12 OPEC countries’ crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day in November 2024.
“Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, while production in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait decreased”, OPEC said.
“At the same time, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 14.01 mb/d in November 2024, which is 219 tb/d higher, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan and Malaysia,” the organisation added.
In a related development, OPEC trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth time this year.
Now, the cartel expects the world’s oil demand growth at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previously 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, a 900,000 barrels per day cut from the previously expected 1.54 million barrels per day.
On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a marginal 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, December 11 due to profit-taking activities.
The OTC securities exchange experienced a downfall at midweek despite UBN Property Plc posting a price appreciation of 17 Kobo to close at N1.96 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.79.
Business Post reports that Afriland Properties Plc slid by N1.14 to finish at N15.80 per unit versus the preceding day’s N16.94 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 1 Kobo to trade at N3.92 per share compared with the N3.93 it ended a day earlier.
At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the bourse, which measures the total value of securities on the platform, shrank by N650 million to finish at N1.055 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.056 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 1.86 points to wrap the session at 3,012.50 points compared with 3,014.36 points recorded in the previous session.
The alternative stock market was busy yesterday as the volume of securities traded by investors soared by 146.9 per cent to 5.9 million units from 2.4 million units, as the value of shares transacted by the market participants jumped by 360.9 per cent to N22.5 million from N4.9 million, and the number of deals increased by 50 per cent to 21 deals from 14 deals.
When the bourse closed for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units worth N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc, which is now listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after its exit from NASD, remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units sold for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The euphoria around the recent appreciation of the Naira eased on Wednesday, December 11 after its value shrank against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N5.23 or 0.3 per cent to N1,547.50/$1 from the N1,542.27/$1 it was valued on Tuesday.
It was observed that spectators’ activities may have triggered the weakening of the local currency in the official market at midweek as they tried to fight back and ensure the value of funds in foreign currencies strengthened.
The domestic currency was regaining its footing after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched an Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform to tackle speculation and improve transparency in Nigeria’s FX market.
At midweek, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling by N3.56 to close at N1,958.68/£1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,955.12/£1 and against the Euro, it slumped by 34 Kobo to trade at N1,612.66/€1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,613.00/€1.
As for the black market segment, the Naira lost N45 against the American currency during the session to quote at N1,670/$1 compared with the N1,625/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
A look at the cryptocurrency market showed a recovery following profit-taking as the US Consumer Price Index report matched economist forecasts.
The news was enough to convince traders that the Federal Reserve is certain to trim its benchmark fed funds rate another 25 basis points at its meeting next week.
The move also saw Bitcoin (BTC), the most valued coin, return to the $100,000 mark as it added a 2.9 per cent gain and sold for $100,566.12.
The biggest gainer was Cardano (ADA), which jumped by 15.00 per cent to trade at $1.16, as Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 10.4 per cent to sell for $121.76, and Ethereum (ETH) surged by 7.0 per cent to $3,929.30, while Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded a 6.7 per cent growth to finish at $0.4181.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 5.2 per cent to $716.72, Solana (SOL) expanded by 4.6 per cent to $229.77, and Ripple (XRP) increased by 4.2 per cent to $2.43, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
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