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Economy

Lafarge Africa, Product of Painful Restructuring

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By Cordros Research

In June 2014, Lafarge Group announced the combination of its businesses in Nigeria and South Africa to create a leading Sub-Saharan Africa building materials platform.

LafargeHolcim was formed a year after –and became the majority shareholder in LAFARGE – as a result of the successful merger between two global cement giants.

Overall, we saw a transformation of the cement industry at the global level, that could potentially change the dynamics of the Nigerian cement market from one dominated by Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) through Dangote Cement Plc (DANGCEM) – as is currently happening in the brewery industry.

Looking back, WAPCO was actually better-off alone. The 2013 proforma financials show that WAPCO’s standalone EBITDA margin of 37% was a lot bigger than the combined entity’s 27% EBITDA margin. And more instructively, WAPCO’s PBT margin was 28% in 2013 while ASHAKACEM’s and UNICEM’s were 13% and 5% respectively.

Shareholders have been on the losing end since the restructuring. We estimate that the M&A resulted in the dilution of the share of minority shareholders’ stake in the old WAPCO to 22% currently (our estimate), from 40% pre-merger level.

From an earnings perspective, it is instructive noting that since the NGN9.4/s last reported by WAPCO in 2013FY, EPS has been on a consistent slide under LAFARGE to negative NGN6.4 in 2017FY, eroded by high restructuring and financing costs.

The experience has been worse for shareholders when viewed with respect to share price performance.

The causes of LAFARGE’s dwindling earnings are diverse and largely result from the business combination. Operating costs have increased significantly following the M&A at a four-year CAGR of 20%, faster than revenue CAGR of c.10%. From NGN21.5 billion in 2013FY, the total debt reported by LAFARGE increased to NGN287.6 billion in 2017FY, with finance costs increasing accordingly. Besides, earnings have also been beset of efficiency issues in recent years, and revenues have not been supportive.

Desperate measures have been taken under the desperate situation. This includes (1) the diversion of priority from ASHAKACEM’s capacity expansion plan, (2) back and forth moves with the USD shareholder loans, and (3) capital raises resulting in further dilution of minority shareholding.

The Nigerian cement market outlook is not too fantastic in the short to medium term. At -3% average annual rate, the cement market has grown less between 2014-2017 compared to the years preceding, and economic growth is forecast to be much slower. Worse for LAFARGE, DANGCEM has raised the barrier of survival for competitors in the market with the group’s investments of the last decade, and BUA Group is also positioning strategically.

Ultimately, LAFARGE needs to stabilize production across its plants and restore market share back to competitive levels.

We update on LAFARGE following H1-18 result, with HOLD recommendation. The recently announced rights issue is incorporated into our valuation, as we believe it is already being factored in by investors. We also roll forward our estimates and valuation by one year, as we believe investors are already trading on 2019E multiples.

On our DCF-derived TP of NGN27.22, the stock offers 18% potential upside – and expected total return of 25% after incorporating 2018E dividend yield of 6.5%. The stock has lost 21% since the H1-18 result release and rights issue (RI) announcement, not surprisingly faster than the (1) broader market (-11%) and (2) fellow cement companies (DANGCEM: -11%, CCNN: +8%) have dipped.

View the detailed analysis below

LAFARGE-AFRICA-PLC-2018-update

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Champion Breweries Concludes Bullet Brand Portfolio Acquisition

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The acquisition of the Bullet brand portfolio from Sun Mark has been completed by Champion Breweries Plc, a statement from the company confirms.

This marks a transformative milestone in the organisation’s strategic expansion into a diversified, pan-African beverage platform.

With this development, Champion Breweries now owns the Bullet brand assets, trademarks, formulations, and commercial rights globally through an asset carve-out structure.

The assets are held in a newly incorporated entity in the Netherlands, in which Champion Breweries holds a majority interest, while Vinar N.V., the majority shareholder of Sun Mark, retains a minority stake.

Bullet products are currently distributed in 14 African markets, positioning Champion Breweries to scale beyond Nigeria in the high-growth ready-to-drink (RTD) alcoholic and energy drink segments.

This expansion significantly broadens the brewer’s addressable market and strengthens its revenue base with an established, profitable portfolio that already enjoys strong brand recognition and consumer loyalty across multiple markets.

“The successful completion of our public equity raises, together with the formal close of the Bullet acquisition, marks a defining moment for Champion Breweries.

“The support we received from both existing shareholders and new investors reflects strong confidence in our long-term strategy to build a diversified, high-growth beverage platform with pan-African scale.

“Our focus now is on disciplined execution, integration, and delivering sustained value across markets,” the chairman of Champion Breweries, Mr Imo-Abasi Jacob, stated.

Through this transaction, Champion Breweries is expected to achieve enhanced foreign exchange earnings, expanded distribution leverage across African markets, integrated supply chain efficiencies, portfolio diversification into high‑growth consumer beverage categories, and strengthened presence in the RTD and energy drink segments.

The acquisition accelerates Champion Breweries’ transition from a regional brewing business to a multi-category consumer platform with continental reach.

Bullet Black is Nigeria’s leading ready-to-drink alcoholic beverage, while Bullet Blue has built a strong presence in the energy drink category across several African markets.

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Economy

M-KOPA Nigeria Plans Expansion to Edo, Others After N231bn Credit Milestone

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Emerging market fintech firm, M-KOPA, has announced plans to deepen its reach in Nigeria to the South South and South East regions, starting with Edo this year, after providing N231 billion in credit to over 1 million customers in the country.

The firm released its first Nigeria-focused Impact Report, which showed that Nigeria is M-KOPA’s fastest-growing market and fastest to reach the milestone.

Since its foray into the Nigerian market in 2019, M-KOPA has been working to dismantle barriers to financial inclusion by providing flexible smartphone financing and digital financial tools that align with how people in the informal economy earn and manage their money.

It operates in six states in the country, including Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo, among others.

The report highlights the company’s contribution to income generation, digital inclusion and economic opportunity for Every Day Earners across the country.

The report showed that M-KOPA has enabled 290,000 first-time smartphone users, while 56 per cent of agents accessed their first income opportunity through the platform.

It showed high income and livelihood gains among its users, with about 77 per cent of customers leveraging smartphones or digital loans obtained through the platform to generate income, indicating that access to financed devices is directly supporting micro-entrepreneurial activity and informal sector productivity.

Furthermore, 75 per cent of users report higher earnings since gaining access to M-KOPA’s services, suggesting measurable improvements in personal revenue streams. On the distribution side, 99 per cent of agents disclose increased earnings, reflecting positive spillover effects across the company’s value chain.

In addition, 81 per cent of long-term customers state that their household expenses have improved, pointing to enhanced financial stability and better consumption smoothing over time.

Speaking on the report, Mr Babajide Duroshola, General Manager, M-KOPA Nigeria, said, “Nigeria represents extraordinary potential, and we’re proud that it has become M-KOPA’s fastest-growing market. Our Impact Report shows that when Every Day Earners gain access to the right digital and financial tools, they use them to create stability and long-term progress for their families. This is about access that unlocks opportunity and sustained prosperity.”

On its expansion plans Nigeria-wide, the M-KOPA helmsman said, “Many of the states we are considering are already similar to the ones we are currently in proximity… So, there is proximity and similarity between these states, and that’s what we are going to do, starting with Edo.”

He noted that as M-KOPA Nigeria continues to expand, the focus remains on ensuring more everyday earners gain access to the digital and financial tools they need to build resilient, prosperous futures in Nigeria’s rapidly digitising economy.

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Economy

Tinubu Okays Extension of Ban on Raw Shea Nut Export by One Year

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The ban on the export of raw shea nuts from Nigeria has been extended by one year by President Bola Tinubu.

A statement from the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, on Wednesday disclosed that the ban is now till February 25, 2027.

It was emphasised that this decision underscores the administration’s commitment to advancing industrial development, strengthening domestic value addition, and supporting the objectives of the Renewed Hope Agenda.

The ban aims to deepen processing capacity within Nigeria, enhance livelihoods in shea-producing communities, and promote the growth of Nigerian exports anchored on value-added products, the statement noted.

To further these objectives, President Tinubu has authorised the two Ministers of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, and the Presidential Food Security Coordination Unit (PFSCU), to coordinate the implementation of a unified, evidence-based national framework that aligns industrialisation, trade, and investment priorities across the shea nut value chain.

He also approved the adoption of an export framework established by the Nigerian Commodity Exchange (NCX) and the withdrawal of all waivers allowing the direct export of raw shea nuts.

The President directed that any excess supply of raw shea nuts should be exported exclusively through the NCX framework, in accordance with the approved guidelines.

Additionally, he directed the Federal Ministry of Finance to provide access to a dedicated NESS Support Window to enable the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment to pilot a Livelihood Finance Mechanism to strengthen production and processing capacity.

Shea nuts, the oil-rich fruits from the shea tree common in the Savanna belt of Nigeria, are the raw material for shea butter, renowned for its moisturising, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant properties. The extracted butter is a principal ingredient in cosmetics for skin and hair, as well as in edible cooking oil. The Federal Government encourages processing shea nuts into butter locally, as butter fetches between 10 and 20 times the price of the raw nuts.

The federal government said it remains committed to policies that promote inclusive growth, local manufacturing and position Nigeria as a competitive participant in global agricultural value chains.

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