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Let’s Talk About Nigeria’s Fuel Subsidies

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Nigeria’s fuel subsidies

By Lukman Otunuga

Oil benchmarks are up almost 40% since the start of 2022

Heightened geopolitical risks revolving around the Russia-Ukraine conflict have fuelled supply-side fears. With the United States banning imports of Russian oil and the European Union threatening to make a similar move, the fundamentals favour more upside.

However, last week’s announcement by President Biden to release a mammoth 180 million from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) between May and October could help oil bears.

The idea of the SPR plugging the gaping hole in the absence of Russian oil may limit upside gains in the global commodity. Nevertheless, oil prices remain at multi-year highs.

The rally in oil prices has been a welcome development for oil-producing countries. Not so for Nigeria.

Africa’s largest crude producer has found itself in a tricky position despite the crude prices trading to their highest level since 2014.

Oil sales make up a massive amount of Nigeria’s export earnings and government revenues. However, the terrible combination of sub-optimal oil production, importing refined products, and petrol subsidies have turned a blessing into a curse.

If geopolitical tensions intensify and prices remain at elevated levels beyond $100, Nigeria stands to lose rather than gain.

Despite being Africa’s largest crude producer, Nigeria exports the global commodity but imports all by-products due to weak infrastructure.

So, as oil prices appreciate, this will support export earnings but also eat into foreign exchange earnings. To add insult to injury, whatever profit is left is drained by petrol subsidies which have cost the Nigerian government up to $7 billion a year in revenue.

Back in November 2021, the Nigerian government announced it will remove the subsidies. Fast forward to today, the removal of the subsidies has been delayed because of the general elections in 2023.

With the government being forced to draw $2.2 billion from the Eurobond it issued last September to fund the fuel subsidies, things are not looking pretty for the federal government or economy.

Even if the subsidies were to be removed in the future, the question is whether Nigeria is strong enough to weather the ramifications of such a move.

What will be the social-economic consequences? How about inflation? What will the Central Bank of Nigeria do to shield the economy? These are just a handful of the questions that need to be answered before Nigeria decides to pull the plug on fuel subsidies.

Lukman Otunuga is the Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Cuts PMS Gantry Price by N50 to N1,125 Per Litre

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has been cut down by N50 to N1,125 per litre from N1,175 per litre by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The refinery confirmed this development via a statement on Thursday to newsmen.

Dangote Refinery described this downward review of the product’s price as a reflection of its ongoing commitment to ensuring price stability, improving affordability, and supporting Nigeria’s energy security objectives.

It further said it underscores its responsiveness to prevailing market conditions and its efforts to pass on cost efficiencies to downstream partners and consumers.

In the statement, the company said it remains focused on its broader mission of contributing to economic growth, enhancing fuel availability, and fostering a more competitive and sustainable petroleum sector in Nigeria.

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Economy

Crude Oil Jumps Over 2% After Vessel Hit Near Strait of Hormuz

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Cawthorne crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday after a cargo vessel was hit ‌by an unknown projectile near Oman, putting an evacuation effort for ships from the key Strait of Hormuz on hold.

Brent futures gained $1.52 or 2.1 per cent to ​settle at $75.26 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chalked up $1.58 or 2.3 per cent to trade at $71.92 per barrel.

The flow of oil and gas has been disrupted since the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February, but the agreement between the US and Iran to end the war has ​allowed the resumption of traffic through the crucial strait.

The United Nations International Maritime Organisation on Thursday paused its effort ​to shepherd ships and seafarers through the strait after the cargo ship reported a suspected attack. This reawakened concerns about the worldwide flow of oil.

Reuters reported that Iran fired on the cargo ship ​as it attempted to pass through the strait after Iranian authorities said the security of vessels passing outside designated Hormuz routes is not guaranteed.

Previously, crude shipments through the strait rose to their highest since the start of the war on Wednesday. Before the war, about 20 per cent of world oil supplies passed through the ​Strait, located between Iran and Oman.

Key fuel oil producers Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have moved to increase shipments from ports outside the Persian Gulf. Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are set to jump by 20 per cent from May to about 508,000 barrels per day in June.

US ‌Secretary of ⁠State Marco Rubio told Gulf allies on Thursday that any deal with Iran would take their interests into account, as he wrapped up a Middle East trip aimed at winning over regional partners with deep reservations about the preliminary accord.

The US and the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) said a lasting peace would mean addressing Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and support for proxy groups. However, the US also threatened that if Iran threatens or blocks ships ​in the strait, there will be a “problem.”

The ​Wall Street Journal reported that Iran estimates charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait, which would bring ​in $40 billion a year ⁠for the states involved.

In Venezuela, thousands were feared dead ⁠after two ​powerful earthquakes affected the capital, Caracas. The quakes could slow the ​increase in Venezuelan oil exports expected by US President Donald Trump’s administration after it captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in January.

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Economy

Distributors Kick Against Plans by Lagos to Tackle Egg Glut

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egg glut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Eggs Sellers and Distributors Association of Nigeria (ESDAN) has kicked against the proposed plan involving the production of egg powder to tackle the glut of eggs.

The National President of ESDAN, Mrs Olaide Graham, made the position clear in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) this week.

Egg glut occurs when egg production exceeds consumer demand, resulting in a surplus that often forces farmers to sell at reduced prices to avoid spoilage.

The Lagos State Government recently announced plans to establish an egg powder processing facility as part of efforts to address seasonal egg glut in the poultry sector.

Mrs Graham described the initiative as a welcome development but maintained that it would not address the fundamental challenges facing the industry.

“The establishment of an egg powder factory in Lagos to address the egg glut situation will have a positive impact if it is properly implemented and the product meets market standards.

“It could help reduce waste and, to some extent, stabilise prices temporarily.

“However, egg powder may not be widely accepted as a substitute for fresh eggs in this part of the country because of differences in taste, texture and consumer perception.

“Many consumers still regard fresh eggs as more nutritious,” she said.

According to her, the major issue is identifying and addressing the root causes of the egg glut rather than focusing solely on processing surplus eggs.

“We have a population of over 200 million people. Why should there be an egg glut?

“We need to examine what farmers, distributors and other stakeholders are not getting right and provide the necessary support.

“Egg powder is not the cure for egg glut in Nigeria. Stakeholders should come together to identify sustainable solutions,” she said.

Mrs Graham noted that egg powder could serve as a raw material for the production of other goods, but should not be viewed as a long-term remedy for the challenge.

She emphasised the need for improved distribution systems across the egg value chain.

“Effective distribution can go a long way in addressing the problem.

“We should remember that Lagos distributes not only eggs produced within the state but also eggs brought in from other parts of the country.

“In every challenge, there is always a solution, but egg powder is not the major solution to egg glut,” she said.

The ESDAN president also dismissed concerns that egg distributors could be negatively affected by the proposed factory.

“Distributors have nothing to fear because Nigerians are accustomed to consuming fresh eggs.

“The number of consumers who will continue to prefer fresh eggs will still be higher.

“Even if egg powder production affects access to fresh eggs, there will still be ways to address that challenge.“If the purpose of producing egg powder is to reduce glut, then that is why distributors have joined the conversation,” she said, according to the news agency.

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