Economy
Low Interest Rate Could Lead to Inflation—CBN
By Dipo Olowookere
Though some have called for the lowering of the nation’s benchmark interest rate presently at 14 percent, others feel making such move at the moment could be counter-productive.
One of such people is the Director in charge of Policy at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Moses Tule, who is of the view that a lower interest rate could bring about inflation crisis in the country.
Nigeria went into a recession in the second quarter of 2016 as a result of very low price of crude oil at the international market. The commodity remains Nigeria’s major export and the drop in the price affected the nation’s economy, resulting in sharp fall in revenue.
But in the second quarter of 2017, the Africa’s largest market exited recession as a result of efforts made by government to diversify the economy.
When the country was battling with the economic crisis, many analysts, including the Minister of Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, called for downward review of the interest rate, but the CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had maintained then that lowering the rate could spell doom for the country.
Speaking with newsmen in Abuja on Friday at the Maiden Colloquium of Prof Uche Uwaleke, Mr Tule noted that the downward review of the benchmark rate could lead to higher demand, leading to inflation which would bring about calls for wage increase in both public and private sectors, with various consequences for the economy.
The CBN Director argued that, “When you reduce MPR, of course, the way the fundamentals are today, you are going to have the impact of that in other ways; which means the demand is going to be higher on the government to increase wages because inflation will erode the living wage.”
According to him, “There will be demand on the government, and every other person in the private sector will demand for wage increase.
“That’s the choice. We have to choose between having to improve infrastructure and interest rate will come down overtime and the whole economy will benefit or reduce interest rate now and then worsen inflation.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Demand for hot stocks, including MRS Oil Plc, buoyed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.52 per cent on Tuesday, December 23.
The energy company was one of the three price gainers for the session as it chalked up N19.69 to sell at N216.59 per share versus the previous day’s value of N196.90 per share.
Further, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.95 to close at N56.75 per unit versus N53.80 per unit and Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 84 Kobo to N9.29 per share from Monday’s N8.45 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation went up by N10.95 billion to N2.125 trillion from N2.125 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 18.31 points to 3,570.37 points from 3,552.06 points.
Yesterday, the NASD bourse recorded a price loser, the Central Securities Clearing System Plc (CSCS), which gave up 17 Kobo to close at N33.70 per unit against the previous trading value of N33.87 per unit.
The volume of securities traded at the session went down by 97.6 per cent to 297,902 units from the previous day’s 12.6 million units, the value of securities decreased by 98.5 per cent to N10.5 million from N713.6 million, and the number of deals remained flat at 32 deals.
By value, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended as the most actively traded stock on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units exchanged for N16.4 billion. This was followed by Okitipupa Plc, which traded 178.9 million units valued at N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
In terms of volume, also on a year-to-date basis, InfraCredit Plc led the chart with a turnover of 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc ranked second with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, while Impresit Bakolori Plc followed with the sale of 536.9 million units valued at N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
It was another bullish trading session for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as it closed higher by 0.59 per cent on Tuesday.
The market further rallied due to continued interest in large and mid-cap stocks on the exchange by investors rebalancing their portfolios for the year-end.
Yesterday, Aluminium Extrusion sustained its upward trajectory after it further appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, as Austin Laz gained 9.81 per cent to close at N2.91, Custodian Investment improved by 9.69 per cent to N38.50, and First Holdco soared by 9.35 per cent to N50.30.
Conversely, Royal Exchange declined by 7.22 per cent to N1.80, Champion Breweries shrank by 6.57 per cent to N15.65, NASCON lost 5.36 per cent to trade at N105.05, Sovereign Trust Insurance depreciated by 5.28 per cent to N3.77, and Japaul went down by 4.51 per cent to N2.33.
At the close of business, 29 shares ended on the gainers’ table and 27 shares finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
This raised the All-Share Index (ASI) by 895.06 points to 153,354.13 points from 152,459.07 points and lifted the market capitalisation by N579 billion to N97.772 trillion from the previous day’s N97.193 trillion.
VFD Group finished the day as the busiest stock after it recorded a turnover of 192.0 million units worth N2.1 billion, GTCO exchanged 63.5 million units valued at N5.6 billion, Access Holdings traded 49.8 million units for N1.0 billion, First Holdco sold 45.8 million units valued at N2.3 billion, and Secure Electronic Technology transacted 38.3 million units worth N28.4 million.
In all, market participants bought and sold 677.4 million units valued at N20.8 billion in 27,589 deals compared with the 451.5 million units worth N13.0 billion traded in 33,327 deals on Monday, showing an improvement in the trading volume and value by 50.03 per cent and 60.00 per cent apiece, and a shortfall in the number of deals by 17.22 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira rallied against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, December 23 by N6.57 or 0.45 per cent to N1,449.99/$1 from the previous day’s N1,456.56/$1.
The domestic currency also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N1.30 to sell for N1,956.03/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,957.33/£1 and gained N2.94 on the Euro to close at N1,707.65/€1, in contrast to the previous session’s closing price of N1,710.59/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the US Dollar by N5 at the GTBank FX counter to sell for N1,465/$1 versus the previous day’s N1,470/$1 but remained unchanged at N1,485/$1 in the black market window.
Sentiment in the FX market continued to improve with market operators attributing the appreciation to increased supply in the official market, supported by sustained interventions from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the impact of recent reforms.
Improved liquidity from exporters and foreign portfolio investors has also contributed to easing pressure on the local currency, helping to stabilise trading conditions during the festivities.
Analysts noted that the Naira’s performance has helped narrow the spread between the official and parallel market rates, a development seen as supportive of investor confidence and business planning. This relative stability has reduced short-term volatility risks and encouraged more orderly price discovery in the FX market.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was down yesterday as analysts suggest tax-loss harvesting and low liquidity are contributing to the action in crypto as the year ends. That means investors selling their underwater positions to realize losses, lowering their tax liabilities.
Some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about a potential rally, though significant recovery is not expected until liquidity returns in January.
Dogecoin (DOGE) crumbled by 3.1 per cent to $0.1281, Solana (SOL) slumped by 2.9 per cent to $121.92, Cardano (ADA) fell by 2.7 per cent to $0.3582, Ethereum (ETH) slid by 2.2 per cent to $2,926.25, and Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 2.1 per cent to $1.85.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 2.0 per cent to sell for $838.21, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.4 per cent to $86,933.97, and Litecoin (LTC) went down by 0.2 per cent to $76.33, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded at $1.00 apiece.
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