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Economy

Possible Interest Rate Pause After Nigeria’s Inflation Falls Again in August

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interest rate hike

By Adedapo Adesanya

In another positive news, Nigeria’s inflation further eased to 32.15 per cent in August 2024, relative to the 33.40 per cent that was quoted in July 2024 and this offers a window of opportunity for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to halt interest rates hike when it meets next week.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, the August 2024 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.25 per cent points when compared to the July 2024 headline inflation rate.

However, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.35 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 at 25.80 per cent.

This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in August 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (August 2023).

Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in August 2024 was 2.22 per cent, which was 0.06 per cent lower than the rate recorded in August 2024 (2.28 per cent).

This means that in August 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in July 2024.

This development may offer ease for businesses who have been lamenting the effect of the 26.25 per cent interest rate increment on their operations.

Some analysts have countered that the CBN might keep tightening in order to bring the rate further down, as it is still high comparatively.

The Food inflation rate in August 2024 was 37.52 per cent on a year-on-year basis, which was 8.18 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (29.34 per cent).

The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items, Bread, Maize Grains, Guinea Corn, etc (Bread and Cereals Class), Yam, Irish Potatoes, Water Yam, Cassava Tuber, etc (Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers Class), Palm Oil, Vegetable, etc (Oil & Fats Class) and Ovaltine, Milo, Lipton, etc (Coffee, Tea & Cocoa Class).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in August 2024 was 2.37% which shows a 0.10 per cent decrease compared to the rate recorded in July 2024 (2.47%). The fall can be attributed to the decline in the rate of increase in the average prices of Tobacco, Tea, Cocoa, Coffee, Groundnut Oil, Milk, Yam, Irish Potatoes, Water Yam, Cassava Tuber, Palm Oil, and Vegetable.

The August 2024 Urban inflation rate was 34.58 per cent on a year-on-year basis, this was 6.89 per cent points
higher compared to the 27.69 per cent recorded in August 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate was 2.39 per cent in August 2024, this was 0.07 per cent points lower compared to July 2024 (2.46 per cent).

On the flip side, The rural inflation rate in August 2024 was 29.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis; this was 5.85 per cent higher compared to the 24.10 per cent recorded in August 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in August 2024 was 2.06 per cent, down by 0.04 per cent points compared to July 2024 (2.10 per cent).

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Three Securities Drag NASD OTC Market Down by 1.01%

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Nigeria's Unlisted Securities Market Sheds 0.78%, NASD Shares up 8.31%

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.01 per cent on Tuesday, June 23, dragging the market capitalisation down by N25.91 billion to N2.544 trillion from Monday’s N2.570 trillion. Also, the NASD Security Index (NSI) decreased by 43.17 points to 4,239.34 points from 4,282.51 points.

The triplet price losers were Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which gave up N4.82 to trade at N75.00 per unit versus Monday’s closing price of N79.82 per unit. NASD Plc depreciated by N3.70 to close at N33.30 per share compared with the preceding day’s N37.00 per share, and Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc marginally lost 1 Kobo to sell at N21.41 per unit, in contrast to the previous session’s N21.42 per unit.

Tuesday’s trading data showed that the volume of securities traded by investors retreated by 35.9 per cent to 211,671 units from 330,034 units, and the value of securities fell by 82.9 per cent to N5.6 million from N32.7 million, while the number of deals doubled to 38 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.1 million units transacted for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc also closed the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Naira Weakens to N1,370/$1 at Official FX Window

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weakening Naira

By Adedapo Adesanya

A 0.11 per cent or N1.53 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 22, closing at N1,370.64/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,369.11/$1.

However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX window during the session by N4.69 to trade at N1,810.75/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,815.44/£1, and gained N5.37 on the Euro to sell at N1,561.02/€1 versus Monday’s exchange rate of N1,566.39/€1.

At the black market segment, the Naira traded flat against the Dollar yesterday at N1,395/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also closed flat at N1,380/$1.

Daily FX update from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that forex liquidity improved, but dollar volume was surpassed by strong dollar outflows on Tuesday.

Interbank FX turnover among financial institutions and market makers experienced a significant surge, reaching $125.314 million across 106 deals at the official window, 92 per cent higher than the $65.206 million the previous day, highlighting robust market activity and growing investor confidence.

Also, Nigeria’s foreign reserves continue to grow, reaching $51.142 billion, up from $51.060 billion reported the previous day, according to the CBN’s latest update.

In the cryptocurrency market, digital currencies fell amid heavy selling in technology stocks, which kept pressure on risk assets worldwide. Also, the gauge of the Dollar climbed to a seven-month high as investors moved toward safer assets.

Leading the losers was Cardano (ADA), as it slid 2.1 per cent to $0.1511. Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.3 per cent to quote at $0.0789, Ethereum (ETH) shrank 0.9 per cent to $1,673.38, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.7 per cent to $1.10, TRON (TRX) also fell by 0.7 per cent to $0.3285, Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $69.83, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 0.2 per cent to $62,756.99, and Binance Coin (BNB) tumbled by 0.01 per cent to $579.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Claims of PMS Export, Re-importation Not True—Dangote Refinery

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Fifth Crude Cargo Dangote Refinery

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has refuted allegations that its premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, exported to other countries, is being re-imported into Nigeria.

It was claimed that the private crude oil refiner sells PMS to other African nations, especially Togo, at a lower price to the extent that when re-imported into the country, it is still cheaper than what Dangote Refinery sells to Nigerian marketers.

Reacting via a statement on Tuesday night, the management described the allegations as “baseless and unsubstantiated” because they are not “supported by verifiable trade data, commercial logic, or the operational realities of Dangote Refinery.”

The company noted that its core mandate is to strengthen domestic supply and remains a leading provider of petroleum products in Nigeria.

“Any practice that enables imports to compete directly with its own production clearly contradicts this objective,” it stated.

Dangote Refinery said “all sales contracts and tender agreements expressly prohibit the resale or re-importation of Dangote Refinery products into Nigeria,” emphasising that “the economics of the purported trade route are fundamentally flawed.”

The organisation stated that estimated logistics costs for transporting products from the refinery to Lomé and back into Nigeria range between $82–90 per metric ton. Such additional costs would significantly erode margins and render the transaction commercially unviable.

“Dangote Refinery does not provide export discounts sufficient to offset these costs or create arbitrage opportunities between export and domestic markets. Simply put, no rational producer would incur additional shipping, storage, financing, and handling costs only for products to re-enter and compete in its primary market,” it pointed out.

The management also highlighted that the refinery maintains stringent product traceability protocols, including detailed records of lifting points, nominated vessels, counterparties, and declared destinations. These measures ensure full visibility and accountability across the supply chain.

The statement insisted that any “claim suggesting that the refinery facilitates or tolerates re-importation is inconsistent with its contractual safeguards and established compliance standards.”

The refinery said it has consistently advocated for reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, underscoring that encouraging or enabling re-importation would undermine local refining efforts, strain foreign exchange reserves, and weaken national industrial growth, positions that are contrary to its core objectives.

Dangote Refinery reiterated that there is no strategic, economic, or operational basis for the claim that it exports products for re-importation into Nigeria, stressing that the allegation is entirely unfounded and does not withstand scrutiny when measured against market logic, contractual frameworks, and industry practices.

The statement concluded that “Dangote Refinery remains focused on its mission to enhance energy security, support local refining, and contribute meaningfully to Africa’s industrial development.”

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