Economy
Market Oil Trades Mixed Amid Surge in US Crude Inventories
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market traded mixed on Thursday as a large build in crude stockpiles in the United States outweighed expectations that US interest rates had peaked, with Brent growing by 18 cents to $86.00 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down by 58 cents to $82.91 a barrel.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory build of 10.2 million barrels for the week to October 6, in contrast to the draw of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week, which, however, did not affect prices as expected because the EIA also estimated a substantial increase in fuel inventories, sparking concern about the health of demand.
Prices, meanwhile, have been volatile since the start of the week but were on the retreat on Thursday after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a crude inventory build of almost 13 million barrels for the week to October 6.
The massive estimated increase in inventories sent prices tumbling despite the war premium that the latest events in the Middle East have added.
Data on Thursday showed that US inflation was slowing, further supporting expectations that the Fed will freeze interest rate hikes next month.
The US consumer price index increased 0.4 per cent last month, supporting market expectations that the US Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates next month.
The Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz and Russia’s deputy prime minister Novak once again reiterated the need to balance oil markets.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said it was necessary to be proactive in bringing stability to the oil market, which had recently been hit by concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could disrupt supplies from the Middle East.
On his part, Mr Novak also reassured markets, saying the current oil price factored in the Middle East conflict and showed that the risk from it was not high.
He also said on Thursday that Russia will further ease its fuel exports ban if necessary after it lifted restrictions on pipeline diesel supplies last week.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Association (IEA) lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2024, suggesting harsher global economic conditions and progress on energy efficiency will weigh on consumption.
In contrast, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its forecast for relatively strong demand growth next year, expecting it to reach 2.25 million barrels per day.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria for March 2026 should further moderate to 13.59 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.06 per cent recorded in February 2026.
The company, in a note sighted by Business Post, explained that easing in the average prices of goods and services for last month would be impacted by a high base from the same period of 2025, but noted that on a month-on-month basis, the rate will spike.
Last month, energy prices soared after the price of crude oil on the global market soared as a result of the war in Iran, with prices of items growing in Nigeria.
“However, month-on-month pressures are likely to pick up, driven by the renewed increases in energy prices, which should nudge headline inflation higher.
“Core inflation is also likely to edge higher, reflecting second-round effects from higher transportation and production costs, although the relative stability of the Naira should help moderate the pace of increase.
“Food inflation is also expected to rise on a month-on-month basis, driven by higher logistics and distribution costs, as well as recent increases in staple food prices,” a part of the report noted.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers later today.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated marginally by 0.04 per cent to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, though on a month-on-month basis, inflationary pressures accelerated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s total public debt rose from N153.29 trillion at the end of September 2025 to N159.28 trillion in December 2025, according to the latest data released by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday.
The increase indicates a quarter-on-quarter increase of N5.98 trillion or 3.9 per cent.
The debt office noted that the December 2025 figures are provisional and were converted using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of N1,435.25/$, while the September 2025 figures were converted using N1,474.85/$.
On a year-on-year basis, the debt profile marked an increase of N14.61 trillion or 10.1 per cent, from N144.67 trillion in December 2024 to N159.28 trillion in December 2025, representing a rise from $94.23 billion to $110.97 billion, an increase of $16.75 billion, in Dollar terms.
Domestic debt remained the largest, rising from N81.82 trillion in September 2025 to N84.85 trillion in December 2025.
This represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of N3.03 trillion or 3.7 per cent compared to December 2024, when domestic debt stood at N74.38 trillion – the figure increased by N10.47 trillion or 14.1 per cent year-on-year.
In Dollar terms, domestic debt rose from $55.47 billion in September 2025 to $59.12 billion in December 2025, and from $48.44 billion in December 2024. This highlights a sustained reliance on the domestic market for financing.
The federal government accounted for the bulk of domestic debt at N80.49 trillion, representing 50.53 per cent of total public debt, while states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) accounted for N4.36 trillion.
Nigeria’s external debt stood at N74.43 trillion as of December 2025, representing 46.73 per cent of total public debt.
This reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of N2.95 trillion from N71.48 trillion in September 2025, and a year-on-year increase of N4.14 trillion from N70.29 trillion recorded in December 2024.
In Dollar terms, external debt rose from $48.46 billion in September 2025 to $51.86 billion in December 2025, and from $45.78 billion in December 2024.
The federal government continued to dominate external borrowing, accounting for N66.27 trillion of the total external debt, while states and the FCT accounted for N8.16 trillion.
However, the structure of Nigeria’s debt portfolio remained broadly stable despite the increase in overall debt.
While domestic debt accounted for 53.27 per cent of total debt in December 2025, compared to 53.37 per cent in September 2025 and 51.41 per cent in December 2024, external debt stood at 46.73 per cent in December 2025, compared to 46.63 per cent in September 2025 and 48.59 per cent a year earlier.
By Dipo Olowookere
The volume of premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, consumed daily in Nigeria stood at 47.3 million litres in March 2026 compared with the 56.9 million litres recorded in February 2026.
This information was revealed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in its latest factsheet.
The decline in daily petrol consumption in Nigeria coincided with a hike in the price of the product, triggered by a rise in global crude oil prices as a result of the Middle East crisis.
The United States and Israel launched airstrikes in Iran in late February, with crude oil rising above $100 per barrel and even above $110 per barrel at one point.
The price is currently below $100 per barrel on the global market after the President of the United States, Mr Donald Trump, signalled his intention to negotiate with Iran amid the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Data by NMDPRA also showed that diesel consumption eased to 14.5 million litres per day from the previous month’s 20.3 million litres per day, while aviation fuel stood at 2.1 million litres per day versus 2.9 million litres per day in February 2026.
It was also disclosed that PMS daily supply for the month under review increased to 40.1 million litres per day from the preceding month’s 39.5 million litres per day.
From this, domestic supply came down by 6.30 per cent to 34.2 million litres per day from 36.5 million litres per day, while imported petrol stood at 5.9 million litres per day versus 3.0 million litres per day a month earlier.
Business Post observed that Dangote Refinery supplied about 34.2 million litres per day of PMS into the Nigerian market from the 48.2 million litres per day it produced. The private refiner produced 16.5 million litres of diesel per day in March 2026, supplying 2.2 million litres per day into the domestic market.
In the period, the Warri and Kaduna refineries were totally shut down, while the Port Harcourt refinery, according to the report, though it was shut down, witnessed the evacuation of about 0.048 million litres of diesel per day while it was operational.
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