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Economy

Meristem Analysts See January 2024 Inflation at 29.54%

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Nigeria's inflation

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Inflation in January 2024 in Nigeria is predicted to rise by 0.62 per cent to 29.54 per cent from the 28.92 per cent recorded in December 2023, according to analysts at Meristem Research.

They noted that this rise would be influenced by the continuous rise in the prices of food, as well as the effect of the weakening of the Naira against the Dollar in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

In December 2023, inflation rose for the 13th consecutive month, with food inflation soaring by 33.93 per cent on a year-on-year basis and core inflation increasing by 23.07 per cent.

Food prices have continued to go beyond the reach of consumers due to the forex crisis and insecurity in the northern part of the country, where most of the food items come from.

Farmers have been unable to go to work because bandits and kidnappers are in charge, demanding taxes for planting and harvesting if farmers must go to their farms or risk being killed.

“For January, we anticipate food inflation to continue its upward trend as the underlying drivers of the surge in food prices remain unabated.

“Our market price survey revealed increases in the prices of pasta, noodles, rice, oils, and other essential food staples, supporting our projection of higher food inflation,” a part of the report obtained by Business Post read.

The firm further stated that, “We envisage a rise in core inflation in January. This expectation is based on the continued depreciation of the Naira observed in January, which is expected to impact the prices of imported goods. The Naira depreciated by 25.12 per cent on the NAFEM window, crossing N1500/USD in January 2024.

“Hence, we project a sustained uptrend in the country’s headline inflation for the month. Given the high base effect of January 2023, we expect that the pace of increase will be low. However, the peculiarities in January (mentioned above) would likely prevent a disinflation due to the base effect.”

Meristem then said it expects the headline inflation in January 2024 to jump by 29.54 per cent versus 28.92 per cent in December 2023, the food inflation to rise by 34.88 per cent versus 33.93 per cent in December 2023, and the core inflation to increase by 23.19 per cent versus 23.07 per cent in December 2023.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers for last month on Thursday, February 15, 2024.

Economy

Peter Obi Raises Eyebrows Over Tinubu’s $11.6bn Debt Servicing Plan

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peter obi

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed worry over plans by the administration of President Bola Tinubu to spend about $11.6 billion on debt servicing.

In a post on his social media platform on Monday, the opposition politician criticised this move, saying it is not good for the country.

He also said this action “should concern anyone interested in the country’s economic future and long-term development.”

The former Governor of Anambra State kicked against the penchant of the government to borrow from various sources without anything to show for it.

“There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing when it is guided by prudence and directed toward productive investment, he noted, stressing that countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Indonesia are all heavily indebted, yet their borrowings are largely channelled into education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation – sectors that generate long-term economic returns and sustain repayment capacity.”

According to him, “despite high debt levels, their obligations remain more manageable because they are tied to measurable productivity.”

He said, “Nigeria’s situation, however, is markedly different. A huge proportion of past borrowing has been directed toward consumption, with limited visible or sustainable developmental outcomes to justify the scale of indebtedness.”

“It is also important to note that a huge portion of the debt currently being serviced was accumulated under the Tinubu administration itself, while borrowing has continued at a significant pace. The administration’s recent external borrowing alone includes about $6 billion (from First Abu Dhabi Bank in the UAE—$5 billion, and UK Export Finance via Citibank London—$1 billion), a further $1.25 billion under consideration from the World Bank, and an additional $516 million arranged through Deutsche Bank, bringing the latest known external loan commitments to roughly $7.8 billion. In addition, domestic borrowing through monthly bond issuances continues to add to the overall debt stock,” the businessman also stated.

“Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2026 budget shows that health is N2.46 trillion, education is N2.56 trillion, and poverty alleviation is N865 billion, giving a combined total of about N5.885 trillion for these three critical sectors.

“By comparison, debt servicing at about $11.6 billion (approximately N17–N18 trillion, depending on exchange rate assumptions) is almost three times higher than the total allocation to health, education, and social protection combined. This imbalance highlights a troubling fiscal reality in which debt obligations increasingly crowd out investment in human capital and poverty reduction.

“Moreover, even within the limited allocations to these sectors, funds may not be fully released, and a significant portion of what is eventually released could be misappropriated,” he further stated.

Mr Obi said, “The central issue is not borrowing itself, but whether borrowed funds are being converted into measurable productivity, inclusive growth, and improved living standards. Without this, debt servicing shifts from being a temporary fiscal obligation to a long-term structural burden that constrains development and deepens economic vulnerability.”

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Economy

Pathway Advisors Closes Fresh N16.76bn Oversubscribed Veritasi Homes CP

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Pathway Advisors Limited

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pathway Advisors Limited, an issuing house and financial advisory firm, has announced the successful completion of the Series 2 Commercial Paper issuance for Veritasi Homes & Properties Plc.

The Series 2 offer, issued under Veritasi Homes’ newly registered N20.00 billion Commercial Paper Programme, raised N16.76 billion, significantly above its initial N12.00 billion target on the back of strong institutional demand.

This issuance builds on the company’s track record in the Nigerian debt capital market and follows the recently concluded N10 billion 3-year 20 per cent  Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond Issuance, further reinforcing investor confidence in Veritasi Homes’ strong credit profile.

The 364-day tenor instrument attracted robust participation from a diverse pool of institutional investors, underscoring sustained confidence in the Company’s financial strength, operating model, and governance standards.

Commenting on the deal, the Founder/CEO of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade (MBA, FCA, M.CIod), noted that the outcome further validates investor appetite for well-structured transactions in the Nigerian capital market.

“The strong oversubscription speaks to the market’s confidence in Veritasi Homes’ performance, governance, and repayment track record. We are pleased to continue supporting issuers with strong fundamentals in accessing efficient funding.’’

He further highlighted that Veritasi Homes’ consistent market activities since 2022, including successful issuances and full redemption of matured obligations, continue to strengthen its reputation among institutional investors.

“Pathway Advisors Limited remains committed to maintaining its leadership position within Nigeria’s capital markets through the origination and execution of transformative, value-driven, and commercially viable transactions by deploying innovative financial solutions and facilitating strategic capital formation across critical sectors.

“We are committed to supporting credible corporates in accessing efficient short-term and long-term financing solutions within the Nigerian capital market,” he said in a statement on Monday.

Speaking on the transaction, the Managing Director/CEO of Veritasi Homes & Properties Plc, Mr Nola Adetola, described the outcome as a strong endorsement of the company’s fundamentals.

“This result reflects the resilience of our business model, our growing market reputation, and the continued trust of the investment community. We are grateful to all institutional investors for their confidence in Veritasi Homes.”

He added that the proceeds from the issuance will be deployed to support the company’s working capital requirements, enhance liquidity, and complete the ongoing development activities across its real estate portfolio.

Mr Adetola also commended Pathway Advisors Limited for its advisory and arranging role in the successful execution of the transaction.

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Economy

SEC Okays Migration to T+1 Settlement Cycle for Capital Market Transactions

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Investments and Securities Act 2025

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.

The T+ settlement cycle is the number of working days required to complete a capital market transaction, such as the trading of securities, shares, and others, from the first day the trade was executed by an investor.

In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”

Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.

The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.

“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.

It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”

SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.

“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.

The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.

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