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Meristem Forecasts 3.42% GDP Growth for Nigeria in Q2 2024

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GDP

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A notable investment house, Meristem Securities, has projected a 3.42 per cent growth in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2024.

Recall that in the first quarter of the year, Nigeria’s economy grew by 2.98 per cent on a year-on-year basis versus 2.31 per cent in the same period of last year, though lower than the 3.46 per cent recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

On Monday, August 26, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the GDP figures for the second quarter of this year, and Meristem analysts believe that the growth will be driven by rise in crude oil production, which according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), reached an average of 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June 2024 versus 1.45 mbpd in April 2024.

This led to an overall average production of 1.47 mbpd for the quarter compared with the 1.39 mbpd recorded in the second quarter of 2023, reflecting a 5.61 per cent YoY growth.

It was stated that the increase was primarily due to higher output from major terminals like Bonny and Forcados and the resumption of operations at previously inactive terminals such as Okono. Additionally, government efforts to enhance security along oil infrastructures also contributed to this rise in production.

Business Post reports that the 2.98 per cent GDP growth in the first three months of this year was fuelled by a 5.7 per cent YoY rise in the oil sector and a moderate 2.8 per cent YoY growth in the non-oil sector, with the oil ecosystem recording a spike in average daily production of 1.54 mbpd, in contrast to the 1.53 mbpd in Q1 2023.

Amid macroeconomic challenges recorded between April 2024 and June 2024, particularly high inflation driving up operational costs, Meristem Research noted that the financial services sector has managed to find opportunities in the current environment.

It said the sector has benefited from the high-interest rate landscape, which has resulted in increased interest and trading incomes.

“Moreover, the ongoing depreciation of the Naira has led to revaluation gains on foreign currency-denominated financial assets.

“Additionally, the sector’s growth trajectory has been supported by improved technological leverage, with the PMI averaging 50.27pts in Q2:2024, up from 42.74pts in Q1:2024.

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Economy

First Holdco Drives Nigerian Bourse’s 0.54% Growth

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By Dipo Olowookere

The bulls regained control of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday after surrendering power to the bears a day earlier as a result of mild selling pressure.

Yesterday, the Nigerian bourse rebounded by 0.54 per cent, mainly due to the gains recorded by First Holdco and others.

Data harvested by Business Post indicated that the industrial goods and energy sectors were flat, while the banking index chalked up 3.13 per cent. The insurance space expanded by 1.08 per cent, and the consumer goods counter rose by 0.21 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 1,316.52 points to 243,462.13 points from 242,145.61 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N850 billion to N157.057 trillion from N156.207 trillion.

The market breadth index was bullish during the last trading session of this week, printing 31 appreciating stocks and 23 depreciating stocks, representing strong investor sentiment.

First Holdco led the advancers’ log after it climbed 9.97 per cent to N95.95, Haldane McCall appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.65, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank soared by 9.73 per cent to N3.72, LASACO Assurance jumped by 5.26 per cent to N2.00, and Thomas Wyatt gained 5.10 per cent to quote at N3.09.

On the flip side, Red Star Express declined by 9.50 per cent to N20.00, Omatek slipped by 6.08 per cent to N1.70, C&I Leasing shrank by 5.93 per cent to N5.55, Jaiz Bank crashed by 5.03 per cent to N8.50, and Livestock Feed fell by 3.89 per cent to N8.65.

As for the activity chart, market participants bought and sold 685.9 million equities for N42.7 billion in 44,134 deals on Friday versus the 498.5 million equities worth N34.9 billion traded in 39,484 deals on Thursday, implying a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 37.59 per cent, 22.35 per cent, and 11.78 per cent, respectively.

Investors’ darling for the day was First Holdco, with a turnover of 225.9 billion units valued at N21.0 billion, Guinea Insurance sold 53.4 million units for N45.2 million, Zenith Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N4.7 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 29.1 million units valued at N720.6 million, and UBA exchanged 27.5 million units for N1.2 billion.

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Economy

Freight Forwarders Seek Wider Sensitisation on Green Tax, Others

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Freight Forwarders Customs green tax

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) has appealed to the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) to deepen its sensitisation on the newly introduced Green Tax Surcharge Policy.

The chairman of APFFLON, Mr Akeem Ayobiojo, made this plea on behalf of his colleagues on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at the Customs House in Abuja, during a stakeholders’ engagement with the agency.

He also called for improvements in the administration of Pre-Arrival Assessment Reports and Post Clearance Audit and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Mr Ayobiojo stated that freight forwarders were happy to work with the customs, commending the organisation for implementing Chapter 99, describing it as a major relief for manufacturers.

He, however, emphasised that a deeper understanding of the new tax was necessary for his members, saying more predictable procedures would reduce delays and unexpected costs for importers and freight forwarders.

In his remarks, the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, assured manufacturers, freight forwarders and other players in the nation’s trade sector that the NCS would continue to engage them on fiscal policies affecting their businesses, saying sustained dialogue remains key to resolving implementation challenges and improving the country’s trading environment.

He also promised them the service’s resolve to enhance and facilitate trade, acknowledging that, “Your feedback is important because it helps us understand what is happening in the field, and where necessary, we will take your concerns to the Federal Ministry of Finance and other relevant government institutions.”

Speaking about Authorised Economic Operator (AEO), Mr Adeniyi further explained that Nigeria would not lower the standards required under the Authorised Economic Operator Programme as the initiative is guided by global benchmarks established by the World Customs Organisation (WCO).

On her part, the Deputy Comptroller-General of Customs for Tariff and Trade, Ms Caroline Niagwan, clarified that electric vehicles can be imported without payment of duty only by holders of Import Duty Exemption Certificate (IDEC) issued by the Federal Ministry of Finance.

She also urged importers facing classification disputes to take advantage of the Advance Ruling system, noting, “Once an Advance Ruling is issued based on genuine documentation, importers have certainty on classification, valuation or origin before the goods arrive, thereby reducing unnecessary disputes during clearance.”

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Economy

Naira Firms to N1,380/$ as FX Market Rally Continues

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 17, by N1.35 or 0.07 per cent to N1,380.18/$1 from N1,381.53/$1.

It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment during the session by N11.75 to trade at N1,854.42/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,866.17/£1, and gained N5.69 against the Euro to sell at N1,576.99/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,582.68/€1.

In the same vein, the Naira chalked up N1 against the United States currency yesterday at the GTBank forex desk to quote at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,389/$1, but closed flat at the black market at N1,405/$1.

The appreciation of the Nigerian currency on Friday came amid fresh signals that Nigeria is building its external reserves for protection against shocks and excessive currency volatility.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, said the country’s gross reserves had risen above approximately $52 billion by 15 July, while net reserves had increased from about $3 billion when the current CBN leadership took office to more than $40 billion.

Mr Cardoso linked the increase in reserves to reforms that had restored greater confidence in the foreign exchange system. He also pointed to efforts to diversify foreign currency inflows, including policies designed to increase remittances through official channels.

He noted that monthly diaspora remittances had risen above $600 million and the CBN expected them to reach approximately $1 billion by the end of 2026. The target is part of a broader effort to grow reserves through recurring inflows rather than temporary measures.

The improvement, he argued, had strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to respond when unexpected events threatened market stability.

The apex bank has also launched a new digital platform that will track every foreign exchange transaction involving Bureau De Change (BDC) operators, marking a major step in its efforts to improve transparency and strengthen oversight of Nigeria’s retail forex market.

As for the crypto market, prices were up as markets overlooked geopolitical developments and macro forces weighing on the whole market ecosystem rather than anything crypto-specific, with Cardano (ADA) up by 4.6 per cent to $0.1661.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 1.8 per cent to $63,968.32, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.9 per cent to $1,843.88, Dogecoin (DOGE) also rose by 0.9 per cent to $0.0723, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.6 per cent to $74.90, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $1.08, and Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 0.1 per cent to $567.32.

However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.2 per cent to close at $0.3218, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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