Economy
Meristem Forecasts August 2023 Inflation at 25.37%
By Dipo Olowookere
Inflation in Nigeria for August 2023 should reach 25.37 per cent compared with the 24.08 per cent recorded in July 2023, analysts at Meristem Securities Limited have predicted.
In a research note obtained by Business Post, the investment firm said this 1.29 per cent surge in the average cost of goods and services would be influenced by the rise in the prices of food, premium motor spirit (PMS), “the lingering challenges in sourcing foreign exchange (FX) and depreciating exchange rate.”
Nigeria has faced a food crisis for some months due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022.
Despite being a major oil-producing country in Africa, the country, which prides itself as the largest economy on the continent, has struggled to improve its forex earnings despite the prices of crude oil rising.
In May 2023, President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy, shooting the price of petrol in the country higher. This caused prices of goods and services to go red hot and have refused to cool down.
The liberalisation of the forex market has also not helped matters, and the gap between the official exchange rate and the others has continued to widen.
In the note released ahead of the disclosure of the inflation numbers for last month on Friday, September 15, by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Meristem said the headline inflation is expected “to increase by 129 basis points to 25.37 per cent (on a year-on-year basis) versus 24.08 per cent in July 2023.”
It noted that despite the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) revealing that last month, the global food commodity price index fell by -2.11 per cent, it was not the same in Nigeria, as key food prices remained elevated in the period under review “based on our perception of market prices.”
“We anticipate a continued surge in the price of rice and oils, hinged on the partial ban on rice exports in India, which has had a substantial impact on global rice supply.
“We also expect that higher logistic costs and poor road networks in the country would further impact food prices.
“Thus, we expect food inflation to shoot up by 173bps to 28.71 per cent for August 2023,” a part of the note stated.
The firm further said the FX crisis and high energy costs would “drive up the prices of import dependent items like petroleum products, motor vehicles, clothing and fabrics etc., that typically impact the core index movement.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange fell by 0.24 per cent on Friday, April 25 after the duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Afriland Properties Plc landed on the losers’ table.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc depreciated by N2.58 to sell at N35.37 per unit compared with the previous day’s N37.95 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 2 Kobo to close at N17.78 per share versus Thursday’s closing value of N17.80 per share.
However, Geo-Fluids Plc appreciated by 10 Kobo during the trading day to sell for N1.80 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.70 per unit. The rise in the price of the stock could not prevent the fall of the bourse yesterday.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform went down by N4.64 billion to N1.914 trillion from N1.918 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 7.92 points to 3,269.06 points from 3,276.98 points.
The final trading session of the week ended with a surge of 1,695.8 per cent in the volume of securities transacted to 3.7 billion units from the 206.2 milion units transacted in the previous trading day.
Equally, the value of transactions jumped by 2,592.6 per cent to N9.5 billion from N354.1 million on Thursday, and the number of deals decreased by 47.4 per cent to 20 deals from the 38 deals recorded a day earlier.
Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 259.3 million units worth N456.1 million, and Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units valued at N4.9 billion.
Also, Okitipupa Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 153.6 million units valued at N4.9 billion, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 15.6 million units worth N598.5 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
A 0.30 per cent fall was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday as a result of profit-taking in the industrial goods sector.
This was mainly caused by sell-offs in Dangote Cement Plc, which released its financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 yesterday.
The cement maker lost 10.00 per cent during the session to trade at N432.00, Regency Alliance lost 8.06 per cent to close at 57 Kobo, VFD Group depreciated by 7.57 per cent to N17.10, Chams declined by 7.27 per cent to N2.04, and Sovereign Trust Insurance crashed by 6.12 per cent to 92 Kobo.
Conversely, International Breweries, Legend Internet, and Ikeja Hotel gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N7.70, N6.82, and N12.10 apiece, Vitafoam Nigeria surged by 9.93 per cent to N44.85, and Eterna rose by 9.92 per cent to N39.90.
The industrial goods index was down by 4.73 per cent on Friday, as the others finished in green territory.
The consumer goods space rose by 2.21 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 1.55 per cent, the insurance counter expanded by 1.50 per cent, the energy sector increased by 0.07 per cent, and the commodity industry went up by 0.04 per cent.
At the close of transactions, the All-Share Index (ASI) went down by 321.21 points to 105,753.05 points from 106,074.26 points and the market capitalisation shrank by N202 billion to N66.465 trillion from N66.667 trillion.
The level of activity increased yesterday as the trading volume, value, and number of deals grew by 30.40 per cent, 94.23 per cent, and 17.64 per cent, respectively.
This was because investors transacted 428.1 million shares worth N20.2 billion in 14,284 deals compared with the 328.3 million shares valued at N10.4 billion in traded in 12,142 deals a day earlier.
GTCO led the activity chart with 60.7 million equities sold for N3.8 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 41.4 million stocks worth N829.3 million, Access Holdings exchanged 40.6 million shares valued at N968.3 million, MTN Nigeria sold 33.0 million equities for N8.2 billion, and Zenith Bank transacted 22.9 million stocks worth N1.1 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira extended its gains against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, April 25 by 0.22 per cent or N3.59 to sell for N1,599.42/$1 compared with the N1,603.01/$1 it was traded in the previous session.
The Nigerian currency also improved its value against the Euro in the official market by N1.36 to close at N1,818.53/€1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N1,819.89/€1.
However, the domestic currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N1.90 to wrap the session at N2,130.44/£1 versus the preceding session’s rate of N2,128.50/£1.
At the black market segment, the Naira appreciated against the greenback on Friday by N2 to quote at N1,605/$1, in contrast to the previous day’s value of N1,607/$1.
In the cryptocurrency market, a possible regulatory progress about digital assets in the US spurred buying interest among investors during the trading session.
The chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Mr Paul Atkins, was at a crypto roundtable on Friday and he devoted his inaugural speech to assuring the industry that he will continue to remake securities policy to favor digital assets innovation.
Litecoin (LTC) rose by 3.0 per cent to $87.24, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 2.7 per cent to $0.1862, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1.3 per cent to $94,687.84, Ethereum (ETH) jumped by 1.2 per cent to $1,797.51, Cardano (ADA) improved by 0.9 per cent to $0.7235, and Ripple (XRP) gained 0.6 per cent to close at $2.20.
On the flip side, Solana (SOL) depreciated by 0.9 per cent to $151.64, and Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.8 per cent to sell for $602.89, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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