Economy
Moody’s Downgrades Nigeria’s Rating to B3 Over Sharp Fall in Revenue
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria’s rating has been downgraded to B3 from B2 by Moody’s Investors Service due to a “significant deterioration” in the country’s revenue despite an improvement in crude oil prices, the nation’s main source of earnings.
In a rating report released on Friday, the agency said the downgrade affects Nigeria’s local currency and foreign currency long-term issuer ratings as well as its foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings.
The firm also said it had placed the ratings on review for downgrade.
“Concurrently, Moody’s downgraded Nigeria’s foreign currency senior unsecured MTN rating to (P)B3 from (P)B2, also and placed it on review for downgrade,” the report obtained by Business Post stated.
Moody’s said the initiation of the review for downgrade is prompted by the risk that the ongoing fiscal and external deterioration accelerates, further weakening the government’s capacity to service debt and thereby increasing its risk of default.
The company said the sharp fall in revenue would exert more pressure on the sovereign credit profile of the country, which prides itself as the largest economy in Africa despite a strong increase in international crude oil prices in 2022.
“Moody’s assessment is that these developments are partly the result of weak governance and likely to last. The steep fall in oil production in 2022 and the extension of the expensive oil subsidy have almost entirely eroded the boost to government revenue and exports that would otherwise have been anticipated from higher oil prices.
“Policy levers available to manage weaker oil revenue and rising borrowing costs amid monetary tightening in Nigeria and globally are limited. Similarly, on the external front, the capacity of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to protect foreign exchange reserves from external outflows has its limits,” the report said.
Concurrently, Moody’s has lowered Nigeria’s local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) country ceilings to B1 and B3, respectively, from Ba3 and B2.
But it noted that while it reviews the rating, it would focus on understanding the Nigerian authorities’ strategy to address both domestic and external pressure and assessing the associated default risk for the government’s private creditors.
It expressed concerns over the comments made by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, last week that the federal government would consider restructuring the debts by seeking a repayment extension, including through potential bond buybacks or exchanges, which Moody’s said could “constitute a distressed exchange” under its default definition.
Economy
Nigeria Halts Petrol Import Licences for Second Month
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has suspended the issuance of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol import licenses for a second straight month in a move that signals a win for Dangote Refinery.
This development comes as regulators begin enforcing provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) that allow imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicated that no import licenses were issued in February, while the Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria (CORAN) confirmed to Reuters that none have been issued so far in March, signalling a shift towards prioritising local output.
According to Bloomberg, oil marketing firms, including a unit of TotalEnergies SE, Conoil Plc and MRS Nigeria Plc, which imported around one-quarter of the nation’s petroleum in January, had their licenses suspended.
The shift highlights a stronger intent by the federal government to protect domestic refining and marks a win for the Dangote Refinery and other local refineries, which last year sued the NMDPRA and the state oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, to force a halt to imports.
Under the PIA, the regulator may grant import permits only when domestic production is not enough to meet national demand.
There have been previous arguments that issuing licenses was necessary to maintain competition and prevent market dominance.
Fuel pump prices have surged by more than 50 per cent since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran last week, pushing global oil markets higher.
NMDPRA Spokesperson, Mr George Ene‑Ita, blamed the sharp rise in prices on escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption fell to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, down from 60.2 million litres in January.
In February, the Dangote Refinery supplied 36.5 million litres of petrol and 8 million litres of diesel to the local market, leaving a daily deficit of 20 million litres that was covered by previously imported stock.
According to NMDPRA, these volumes were sufficient, leading to its decision to withhold import licenses.
Mr Eche Idoko, spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), which has long urged the government to stop issuing import licenses that undermine local refiners’ margins, welcomed the regulator’s stance.
“For us, anything that protects local production is a good move. The challenge now is to sustain the momentum,” Mr Idoko said.
Economy
Nigeria’s Economy Strong Enough to Absorb Oil Market Shocks—Edun
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has begun assessing the potential economic implications of the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adjusting policies to shield Nigeria from possible disruptions.
This was disclosed by the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, as the Economic Management Team (EMT) convened to evaluate the risks posed by the US-Israel-Iran standoff to global energy routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
He said Nigeria’s robust 4.07 per cent real GDP growth in Q4 2025 positions the country to weather looming oil market shocks from Iran tensions.
Mr Edun, who chairs the EMT, in a statement issued on Tuesday by the Assistant Director for Information and Public Relations in the ministry, Uloma Amadi, said the government was closely monitoring developments and remained committed to safeguarding Nigeria’s economic stability.
The EMT moved to review the potential impact of the unfolding crisis on the Nigerian economy.
Mr Edun also chaired a Naira-for-Crude policy coordination meeting to evaluate developments in the global energy market and their possible domestic implications.
The government noted that the situation remained fluid, with global markets already showing signs of uncertainty amid concerns about potential disruptions to critical energy supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Such disruptions, it said, could lead to volatility in crude oil prices and financial markets worldwide.
Given Nigeria’s integration into global commodity and financial markets, the government identified three major channels through which the crisis could affect the domestic economy.
These include crude oil and gas prices, capital flows and financial market conditions, as well as global logistics and supply costs.
The statement noted that volatility in global energy markets was already pushing up the prices of key commodities, with possible implications for domestic fuel, diesel, cooking gas, and fertiliser costs.
It added that heightened geopolitical risks could also lead to a shift by global investors toward safe-haven assets, potentially affecting capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.
In addition, disruptions to major shipping and energy supply routes could increase international freight and logistics costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on domestic prices.
The Minister of Finance noted that, beyond these immediate effects, sustained instability in the region could lead to higher prices for goods and services, further intensifying inflationary pressures and the cost of living.
During the EMT meeting, ministers provided sector-specific updates on the evolving situation, with discussions focusing on the likely scale of impact on Nigeria depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict.
Particular attention was placed on how developments in the global oil market could influence Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and external reserves.
The government said the Economic Management Team is closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including global crude oil prices, exchange rate developments, and their potential impact on domestic prices.
It is also tracking capital flows, financial market conditions and broader implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position.
Despite global uncertainty, the Federal Government said Nigeria is entering the period from a position of strengthened economic fundamentals.
It cited recent economic data showing that the country recorded a real Gross Domestic Product growth of 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, one of the strongest quarterly performances in more than a decade.
According to the statement, the growth reflects the impact of ongoing economic reforms and improved macroeconomic coordination.
The government said it remains committed to protecting these gains and ensuring that recent progress in economic stabilisation and revenue mobilisation is not undermined by external shocks.
To achieve this, the Economic Management Team is maintaining close coordination across fiscal, monetary and energy policy institutions.
Policy options are also being kept under continuous review to mitigate potential volatility and protect households and businesses from the possible spillover effects of the global crisis.
Mr Edun emphasised that careful policy calibration would remain central to the government’s response to evolving global developments.
Economy
NASD Investors Lose N16.25bn
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange faced south on Tuesday, March 10, by 0.64 per cent, with the market capitalisation dropping N16.25 billion to close at N2.540 trillion versus the preceding session’s N2.556 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) shrinking by 27.15 points to 4,245.97 points from 4,273.12 points.
The red team had more members than the green team yesterday, with the former comprising four and the latter three.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depreciated by N2.43 to sell at N80.00 per share versus N83.78 per share, Afriland Properties Plc lost N1.90 to trade at N17.60 per unit versus N19.50 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 30 Kobo to N3.00 per share from N3.30 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc declined by 2 Kobo to N1.33 per unit from N1.35 per unit.
Conversely, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N2.85 to N136.70 per share from N133.85 per share, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc added 25 Kobo to sell at N4.00 per unit compared with Monday’s price of N3.75 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc gained 1 Kobo to settle at N1.91 per share versus N1.90 per share.
The volume of securities surged during the session by 1,253.2 per cent to 14.9 million units from 1.1 million units, the value of securities jumped 180.7 per cent to N132.7 million from N47.3 million, and the number of deals increased by 61.1 per cent to 58 deals from 36 deals.
The most active stock by value (year-to-date) was CSCS Plc with 38.1 million units exchanged for N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc occupied the second spot with 6.3 million units worth N1.1 billion, and the third place was taken by MRS Oil Plc with 3.4 million units valued at N507.8 million.
The most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) was Resourcery Plc with 1.05 billion units sold for N408.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.6 million units transacted for N503.8 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.1 million units worth N2.4 billion.
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