Economy
Moody’s Foresees Reversal in Nigeria’s Deteriorating Fiscal Position
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A notable rating agency, Moody’s Ratings, has said the reforms introduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu could reverse Nigeria’s deteriorating fiscal and external positions.
The company said this in a statement on Friday to announce the affirmation of the country’s Caa1 long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings with a positive outlook.
Moody’s has also affirmed Nigeria’s foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings at Caa1 and the foreign currency senior unsecured MTN program rating at (P)Caa1.
It explained that the positive outlook, in place since December 2023, reflects the possibility of things turning around for good for the country, especially as the external rebalancing has continued to advance since the beginning of the year after further initiatives to address the backlog of foreign exchange (FX) demand.
“The authorities’ reforms to the foreign exchange market have started to bear fruit, supporting Nigeria’s external rebalancing,” a part of the disclosure stated.
However, it warned that inflation risk remains elevated and the fiscal outlook particularly uncertain, both key reasons underpinning the affirmation of the Caa1 ratings.
Recall that a few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the average price of goods and services increased by 34.95 per cent last month on a year-on-year basis despite the tighter monetary conditions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
In the statement issued by Moody’s yesterday, it posited that further risks to the government’s fiscal consolidation plans come from the higher cost of oil subsidy and the likely introduction of supplementary measures to support Nigerians most affected by the inflation shock, which threatens ever-increasing interest expenses.
“The CBN has acted vigorously since February 2024 in its fight against Nigeria’s high and still-rising inflation, raising the policy interest rate by a cumulative 750bps since the beginning of the year in a series of three hikes.
“In addition, the CBN reduced on April 17, 2024, the maximum loan-to-deposit ratio for deposit money banks by 15 percentage points to 50%, intending to reinforce contractionary pressure on the money supply and prices.
“These policy changes come after a lengthy period of policy inaction by the CBN after inflation started to take off in June 2023,” another part of the statement seen by Business Post said.
“We expect that the fiscal deficit will widen significantly in 2024 to around 7 per cent of GDP amid multiple obstacles to the government’s fiscal consolidation plans,” it added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Geo-Fluids Plc and Afriland Properties Plc propelled the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange up 0.13 per cent on Friday, January 10.
Investors gained N1.4 billion during the trading session after the market capitalisation of the bourse ended at N1.053 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.052 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased at the close of business by 4.07 points to wrap the session at 3,073.93 points compared with 3,069.86 points recorded at the previous session.
Geo-Fluids added 25 Kobo to its value to close at N4.85 per unit compared with the previous session’s N4.60 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 24 Kobo to close at N16.25 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N16.01 per share.
There was a 35.4 per cent fall in the volume of securities traded in the session as investors exchanged 4.3 million units compared to 6.6 million units traded in the preceding session, the value of shares traded yesterday went down by 37.4 per cent to N17.2 million from the N27.5 million recorded a day earlier, and the number of deals decreased by 47.2 per cent to 19 deals from the 36 deals recorded in the preceding day.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI )Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.
IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira witnessed a depreciation on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, January 10.
According to data from the FMDQ Exchange, the local currency weakened against the greenback yesterday by 0.12 per cent or N1.80 to sell for N1,543.03/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,541.23/$1.
The pressure on the domestic currency came as the access granted to the Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to purchase FX from the official market through the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform prepares to end next week, precisely on January 19.
The CBN had given a 42-day window to the operators to access the platform to help stabilise the Naira in December, and this expires next week.
On Friday, the Nigerian currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N30.78 to sell for N1,889.29/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,858.51/£1, but gained N5.48 against the Euro to finish at N1,583.81/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s rate of N1,589.29/€1.
As for the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira remained stable against the US Dollar during the trading session at N1,650/$1, according to data obtained by Business Post.
In the cryptocurrency market, it was bearish as the US economy added 256,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, topping forecasts for 160,000 and up from 212,000 in November (revised from an originally reported 227,000).
However, the readings came after a number of recent economic reports triggered a broad-market pullback across asset classes such as crypto as investors quickly scaled back the idea of a continued series of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
Cardano (ADA) fell by 3.6 per cent to trade at $0.921, Solana (SOL) slumped by 2.8 per cent to $185.93, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.4 per cent to $3,233.27, Litecoin (LTC) lost 1.3 per cent to finish at $103.62, Dogecoin (DOGE) shed 0.5 per cent to sell at $0.3315, Bitcoin (BTC), waned by 0.2 per cent to $94,154.43, and Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 0.1 per cent to $693.30.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped by 1.5 per cent to settle at $2.34, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
Profit-takers took control of Customs Street on Friday, plunging it by 0.08 per cent at the close of trading activities.
The sell-offs were across all the key sectors of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on last trading session of the week.
The insurance space went down by 1.53 per cent, the banking index depreciated by 0.41 per cent, the consumer goods sector weakened by 0.16 per cent, and the energy counter slumped by 0.08 per cent, while the industrial goods sector closed flat.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) tumbled by 79.68 points to 105,451.06 points from 105,530.74 points and the market capitalisation retreated by N48 billion to N64.303 trillion from N64.351 trillion.
Yesterday, investors traded 1.5 billion shares worth N19.4 billion in 12,877 deals compared with the 489.5 million shares worth N13.1 billion transacted in 13,010 deals in the preceding day, indicating a decline in the number of deals by 1.02 deals and a rise in the trading volume and value by 203.14 per cent and 48.09 per cent, respectively.
Wema Bank was the busiest stock with 976.2 million units valued at N9.8 billion, Tantalizers traded 53.0 million units worth 129.6 million, Universal Insurance sold 34.8 million units for N26.8 million, Access Holdings exchanged 33.9 million units valued at N843.8 million, and Nigerian Breweries traded 27.3 million units worth N873.3 million.
The heaviest loss was suffered by Sunu Assurances with a decline of 9.99 per cent to trade at N7.30, Eunisell shed 9.96 per cent to N17.35, SAHCO crumbled by 9.87 per cent to N30.15, DAAR Communications plunged by 9.28 per cent to 88 Kobo, and Sovereign Trust Insurance went down by 7.04 per cent to N1.32.
On the flip side, C&I Leasing gained 10.00 per cent to close at N4.51, Honeywell Flour appreciated by 9.99 per cent to N10.02, Trans Nationwide Express jumped by 9.89 per cent to N2.00, RT Briscoe rose by 9.83 per cent to N2.57, and Secure Electronic Technology grew by 9.46 per cent to 81 Kobo.
Business Post reports that the bourse ended with 33 price gainers and 25 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
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