Economy
MPC Meeting: Analysts Expect CBN to Raise Interest Rate to 19.75%
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The anchor interest rate, which is the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), should be raised by 100 basis points to 19.75 per cent by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
This is the view of analysts at Meristem Research in a report obtained by Business Post ahead of the rate-setting announcement on Tuesday, February 27, 2024.
The committee is commencing its two-day meeting today, Monday, February 26, and will announce the outcome of their deliberations tomorrow.
The group last met in July 2023. It would be the first under the current Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, who was confirmed as the chairman of the team by the Senate last week.
Mr Cardoso, a former banker, was appointed as the substantive CBN chief in September 2023 and took over from Mr Folashodun Shonubi, who was appointed as the bank’s acting governor after Mr Godwin Emefiele was suspended from office in June 2023 by President Bola Tinubu some days after he (Mr Tinubu) assumed office.
Mr Cardoso missed the MPC meeting for September and November.
In a recent interview, he disclosed that the team was taking its time to hold another meeting because it wants a situation where the outcomes of the committee would carry much weight.
As the MPC meeting starts today, Meristem Research has predicted that the rate would go up “considering the sustained inflationary pressures and the anticipation of a continued uptrend.”
It also expects “an increase in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 250 basis points to 35.00 per cent, with other policy parameters remaining unchanged.”
“Additionally, considering the necessity of aligning the monetary policy rate with prevailing market interest rates, we opine that a HOLD stance is unlikely,” it stated.
On February 15, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that inflation in January 2024 rose by 29.90 per cent on a year-on-year basis, its highest in 28 years, as a result of a hike in the prices of goods and services in the country.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited suffered a 0.25 per cent hair cut on Friday after investors offloaded some stocks, including Tantalizers, which topped the losers’ chart.
The company was the worst-performing equity during the session after it shed 9.85 per cent to settle at N2.93, Jaiz Bank lost 9.72 per cent to trade at N3.25, Neimeth declined by 9.45 per cent to N2.49, Dangote Sugar tumbled by 7.76 per cent to N35.05, and Lasaco Assurance shrank by 5.96 per cent to N2.68.
On the flip side, Royal Exchange gained 10.00 per cent to finish at 88 Kobo, Linkage Assurance soared by 9.57 per cent to N1.26, Guinea Insurance appreciated by 9.52 per cent to 69 Kobo, Enamelware inflated by 9.05 per cent to N25.30, and Red Star Express rose by 8.41 per cent to N5.80.
Business Post reports that the market breadth was negative on the last trading session of the week, with 24 depreciating shares and 22 appreciating share, showing a weak investor sentiment.
Apart from the insurance index, which closed higher by 0.12 per cent, and the commodity space, which closed flat, every other sector crumbled.
The consumer goods counter deflated by 1.08 per cent, the banking industry went down by 0.22 per cent, the energy sector fell by 0.18 per cent, and the industrial goods counter retreated by 0.03 per cent.
At the close of trades, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 265.81 points to 105,955.13 points from 106,220.94 points and the market capitalisation dropped N166 billion to end at N66.352 trillion compared with Thursday’s value of N66.518 trillion.
A total of 750.6 million stocks worth N11.1 billion exchange hands in 10,584 deals during the session versus the 341.7 million stocks valued at N16.7 billion transacted in 11,233 deals a day earlier, implying a rise in the trading volume by 119.67 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 33.54 per cent and 5.78 per cent apiece.
Champion Breweries topped the activity chart with 350.4 million units worth N1.4 billion, Tantalizers sold 53.1 million units for N157.1 million, Custodian Investment traded 51.1 million units valued at N1.0 billion, Lasaco Assurance transacted 36.5 million units worth N97.7 million, and Access Holdings exchanged 30.7 million units valued at N723.0 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
There was a 0.6 per cent decline at NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, March 14, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropping 20.44 points to close at 3,363.74 points, in contrast to the previous trading day’s 3,384.18 points and the market capitalisation of the bourse losing N11.81 billion at session to settle at N1.942 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.954 trillion.
Yesterday, Okitipupa Plc went down by N30.00 to close at N300.00 per share compared with Thursday’s value of N330.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc shrank by 31 Kobo to trade at N21.69 per unit versus the previous day’s N22.00 per unit, and Geo Fluids slid by 31 Kobo to trade at N2.84 per share, in contrast the N3.15 per share it was traded a day earlier.
However, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc rose by N2.66 to N38.23 per unit from N35.57 per unit, Afriland Properties Plc expanded by 30 Kobo to N23.20 per share from its previous rate of N22.90 per share, and AG Mortgage Bank Plc increased by 5 Kobo to close at 53 Kobo per unit versus 48 Kobo per unit.
During the session, the volume of securities traded at the bourse fell by 72.6 per cent to 652,237 units from the 3.9 million units recorded on Thursday.
But the value of securities traded went up by 40.5 per cent to N33.1 million from the N23.6 million quoted at the preceding session and the number number of deals increased by 11.7 per cent to 37 deals from 17 deals.
Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million, the second position was occupied by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 13.0 million units valued at N502.4 million, and the third spot was taken by Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units worth N356.2 million.
The most active stock by volume (year-to-date) was also Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units valued at N520.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 69.9 million units sold for N23.7 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units valued at N356.2 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded its first gain against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) this week on Friday, March 14, firming up by 1.19 per cent or N18.31 to close at N1,522.37/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1.540.68/$1.
This was supported by the injection of FX into the market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Over the last few sessions, the local currency had depreciate following recent pressures in the market as interventions have failed to ease pressure welling in the market with the country’s foreign reserves losing over $2 billion in the last month.
However, there were fresh injections at the session, which boosted the value of the local currency in the official market.
Equally, the domestic currency appreciated against the British Pound Sterling at NAFEM yesterday by N25.93 to sell at N1,640.20/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,990.13/£1 and improved its value against the Euro by N22.30 to quote at N1,653.78/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s value of N1,676.08/€1.
In the parallel market, the value of the Nigerian Naira remained unchanged against the US Dollar during the trading day at N1,590/$1.
As for the cryptocurrency market, sellers of risk assets took a breather yesterday, with crypto markets posting sizable gains after risk appetite returned to markets.
Solana (SOL) jumped by 6.7 per cent to trade at $133.10, Ripple (XRP) gained 4.1 per cent to finish at $2.39, Cardano (ADA) went up by 3.8 per cent to settle at $0.7356, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.5 per cent to sell at $0.1723, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 2.3 per cent to end at $83,987.28, Litecoin (LTC) added 3.0 per cent to quote at $91.48, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 1.8 per cent to $590.92, and Ethereum (ETH) improved its value by 1.4 per cent to sell at $1,919.80, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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