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MPC Meeting: Considerations and Policy Options

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MPC Meeting

By FSDH Research

Is Expansionary Monetary Policy Appropriate?

We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels when it meets on January 23-24, 2017. Although the inflationary pressure and weak exchange rate justify a rate hike, it may be a difficult policy given the need to implement policies to boost growth in the economy.

The CBN will continue to use the Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage liquidity to achieve the desired goals in the short-term. At its November 2016 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 basis points and -700 basis points; retained the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that economic activity is projected to improve in 2017 especially in emerging market economies. This is contained in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update for January 2017. The IMF projects global growth at 3.4% in 2017, from an estimated growth of 3.16% in 2016. Advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.9% in 2017, from 1.6% in 2016, led by growth in the United States (U.S). The IMF projects a growth of 4.5% for the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies from an estimate of 4.1% in 2016, as policy stimulus and improvements in commodity prices aid growth.

The new administration in the U.S. led by Mr. Donald Trump has promised to embark on expansionary fiscal policy to build infrastructure and lower taxes. This policy may drive inflation rate in the U.S beyond the 2% target set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S Federal Reserve (The Fed).

The FOMC may respond by a rate hike faster than earlier anticipated. Consequently, global yields may rise with a possible capital flight from other countries into the U.S. The appropriate monetary mitigant in Nigeria under this situation is a tight monetary policy.

The IMF estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Nigeria in 2016 at 1.5%, but to grow by 0.8% in 2017. The Nigerian economy has been plagued with a number of macroeconomic issues, as well as insecurity in certain parts of the country that are now experiencing some relief. There is still foreign exchange shortages as a result of lower export revenue linked to the drop in oil price and production. There is an improvement in Nigeria’s economic outlook because of the increase in oil output and the impact of the supply cut by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the short-term, a hold decision will be appropriate.

The inflationary pressure still persists in Nigeria, as we expect the January 2017 inflation rate to increase further from the December 2016 figure. The inflation rate increased in December 2016 to 18.55%, from 18.48% in November 2016. The inflation rate in the medium term would be driven by the base effect from previous higher prices, expected good food crop harvest and, possible increase in electricity tariff and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Given the outlook of inflation rate between now and the next MPC meeting, a rate cut will be counter-productive.

The decision of the OPEC and some non-OPEC countries for coordinated cuts in oil output agreed in

November 2016 has led to a significant boost to oil prices. The average price of Bonny Light was $54.21/b in December 2016, up by 19.27% from $45.45/b in November 2016.

The price of Bonny Light crude oil also increased by 17.44% to US$55.09b as at January 17, 2017 from US$46.91/b on November 22, 2016. The secondary data from the OPEC shows that Nigeria’s oil output decreased by 7.23% to 1.54mbd in December 2016, from 1.66mbd as at November 2016. The ongoing talks in the Niger Delta region and the provision for the amnesty programme in Budget 2017 could restore oil output.

The external reserves increased consistently after the last MPC meeting in November 2016. The 30-day moving average external reserves increased by 11.51% from $24.50bn as at November 22, 2016 to $27.32bn as at January 17, 2017. The increase in oil production from September 2016 up till November 2016 boosted the external reserves. The support from the African Development Bank (AfDB) contributed to the external reserves. A rate cut may lead to capital flight. Thus, we expect the MPC to hold rates while it awaits complementary fiscal policy support.

The Naira depreciated at the inter-bank and parallel markets between the last MPC Meeting and January 17, 2017. It recorded a marginal depreciation of 0.08% at the inter-bank market to close at $1/N305.25 on January 17, 2017 from $1/N305 on November 22, 2016. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N181 after the last MPC meeting in November 2016. The parallel market rate also depreciated by 6.12% to $1/N498.50 on January 17, 2017 from $1/N468 on November 22, 2016. A rate cut may lead to further depreciation in the value of the Naira.

The average yields on the 182-day and 364-day Nigerian Government Treasury Bills (NTBs) increased to 19.17% and 22.98% in December 2016, compared with 19.11% and 22.85% respectively in November 2016.

The 91-day

NTB closed unchanged at 14.50% in December 2016. The yields on the NTBs sold on January 04, 2017 were at 14.51%, 19.17% and 22.98% on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTBs, respectively. However, the average yield on the 16% June 2019; 16.39% FGN Bond January 2022 and 10% July 2030 increased to 15.65%, 15.71% and 15.86% in December 2016 from 14.99%, 15.26% and 15.61% in November 2016. They stood at 16.37%, 16.10% and 16.30% as at January 18, 2017. The increase in yields reflects the current rising inflation rate and weak exchange rate.

The monetary aggregates and credits to the private sector grew in the first ten months of the year, and above the target rates for 2016. The growth in credit was mainly from the impact of devaluation of the Naira. The broad money supply (M2) increased by 11.21% to N22.28trn in October 2016, from N20.03trn in December 2015; an annualized growth of 13.45%. The provisional growth benchmark for 2016 is 10.98%.

The narrow money (M1) grew by 16.94% to N10.02trn in October 2016, from the end-December 2015 figure. Net Domestic Credit (NDC) also grew by 23.89% in the same period; an annualized growth of 28.67%. The provisional benchmark growth for 2016 is 17.94%. The credit to government increased by 280.06% during the period.

Similarly, credits to the private sector grew by 23.24% for October 2016, compared with December 2015; an annualized growth of 27.89%. The benchmark growth for 2016 is 13.28%.

Looking at the economic developments in the country and the impact of the external developments on the Nigerian economy, we expect the MPC to hold rates at the current levels. If the peace in the Niger Delta region is maintained, oil output may increase. This will increase exports and inflow of foreign exchange.

The need for the Federal Government Nigeria (FGN) to borrow aggressively may reduce and interest rate and inflation rate may drop. All these may take a couple of months to happen.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Oyedele Describes Reports on ‘Admits Errors in Tax Laws’ Misleading

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taiwo oyedele tax reform

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has denied admitting errors in Nigeria’s new tax laws, describing the reports as “misleading” and a false misrepresentation.

In a Sunday statement, attributed to the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and posted on Mr Oyedele’s official X handle, the reports were described as an unhelpful twisted narrative that risks distorting public understanding and misleading the very people the reforms were designed to benefit.

“Our attention has been drawn to misleading media reports claiming that the Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has ‘finally admitted errors in the new tax laws.’

“These publications misrepresent the Minister’s statements, falsely alleging that he urged Nigerians to await the outcome of a legislative probe, a process that has long been concluded and the gazetted copies certified by the National Assembly [have been] published since early January 2026.

“This twisted narrative is unhelpful as it risks distorting public understanding and misleading the very people the reforms were designed to benefit,” the statement read.

The committee explained that the minister, while speaking at a fireside chat during the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Legal Practice conference in Lagos, highlighted early gains from the tax reforms.

According to the statement, the gains highlighted by the Minister included a significant increase in the number of informal businesses seeking registration with the Corporate Affairs Commission, as well as a rise in the number of registered taxpayers from about 10 million to over 100 million nationwide.

These impressive results stem from the robust design and progressive nature of the new laws, including an exemption of small companies from tax, increased exemption thresholds for low-income earners, tax exemptions on basic consumption items like food, education, healthcare, transportation, and rent, and the introduction of the Tax Ombud to protect taxpayer rights, it stated.

The statement added, “The Minister contrasted the transformative changes in the new laws with the regressive provisions in the old laws. He, however, emphasised that no law is perfect.

“Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement is essential to identify and address any errors or gaps for appropriate legislative updates through Finance Bills as part of a continuous improvement process.”

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Economy

Lafarge Africa to Rebrand as HBM Nigeria After Huaxin Takeover

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Lafarge Africa

By Adedapo Adesanya

Lafarge Africa Plc will change its corporate name to HBM Nigeria Plc, reflecting new majority ownership by China’s Huaxin Cement Co., subject to approval by shareholders of the 67-year old cement maker.

The company will ask shareholders to approve the change of its corporate identity to HBM Nigeria Plc at its 67th Annual General Meeting scheduled for April 30, 2026, in Lagos.

The proposed name change is part of a broader AGM agenda that also includes financial reporting, dividend approval, and board restructuring.

The rebrand marks a new chapter following Holcim’s exit and signals Huaxin’s intent to deepen its footprint in Nigeria’s construction materials sector.

The company highlighted the proposed name change as a key special resolution requiring shareholder approval at the meeting. Management noted that the amendment will formally alter Clause 1 of its Memorandum of Association, redefining its legal identity.

Lafarge Africa Plc reported strong financial performance for the 2025 financial year, underscoring the backdrop to its proposed strategic shift. The company recorded significant growth across key financial metrics.

Revenue rose to N1.1 trillion in 2025, up 53 per cent from N696.8 billion in 2024. Profit after tax increased from N100.1 billion to N273 billion, representing a 173 per cent growth. Operating profit climbed from N193 billion to N392 billion, driven by cost optimisation and operational efficiency.

Earnings per share surged from N6.22 to N17, reflecting improved profitability. The company has proposed a final dividend of N6.00 per share, subject to shareholder approval and applicable withholding tax.

Huaxin Cement acquired a controlling 83.81 per cent stake in Lafarge Africa Plc from the Holcim Group for roughly $1 billion. The deal, finalised in late 2025, marks Holcim’s complete exit from Nigeria to focus on other markets, with Huaxin aimed at expanding its footprint in Africa.

The chairman of Lafarge Africa, Mr Gbenga Oyebode, said Nigeria’s market holds vast potential with its positive growth indices, increasing urbanisation, and infrastructure demand.

“This development will further solidify Lafarge Africa’s position as a leading contributor to Nigeria’s infrastructure and economic growth. Nigeria’s market holds vast potential with its positive growth indices, increasing urbanisation, and infrastructure demand. We remain committed to leveraging these opportunities while maintaining our focus on sustainability and innovation.”

Lafarge expanded into Nigeria in 2001 through the acquisition of Blue Circle, thereby taking over its stake in West African Portland Cement Company (WAPCO), later rebranding it as Lafarge Cement WAPCO Plc and significantly increasing production capacity with new plants and infrastructure in Ogun State.

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Economy

Naira Trades N1,356/$ at Official Market, N1,385/$1 at Parallel Market

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yuan-naira $10bn

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira extended its gain on the Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, April 10, by 0.18 per cent or N2.43 to trade at N1,356.89/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,359.32/$1.

It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the same market window by N16.01 to close at N1,828.82/£1 versus N1,844.83/£1, but lost N3.40 against the Euro to sell at N1,592.58/€1 versus N1,589.18/€1.

In the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira further appreciated against the Dollar during the session by N5 to settle at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous day’s rate of N1,390/$1.

With the FX market operating with greater liquidity and efficiency, market participants now transact without extraordinary interventions from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

However, external reserves fell for 16 straight days through April 8, the longest declining run since July 2025. The central bank’s foreign exchange holdings declined by $1.1 billion in the period to $48.94 billion, the lowest level since February 19, the lender’s data show.

After initially weakening, as the Iran war broke out, the Nigerian currency has recovered losses and is one of only four of 23 African currencies still standing in the period.

The CBN had pledged to stabilise the Naira and has boosted sales of high-yield short-term debt to attract inflows of Dollars.

As for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies fell after US Vice President J.D. Vance announced that the country and Iranian negotiators had failed to agree to an extended ceasefire. BTC lost 1.9 per cent to sell at $71,549.08.

The parties met in Pakistan on Saturday to negotiate an agreement after the US’s nearly six-week-long campaign against Iran. VP Vance said at a press conference afterwards that the US had “not reached an agreement.”

Cardano (ADA) fell 4.3 per cent to $0.2398, Solana (SOL) depreciated by 2.7 per cent to $82.22, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 2.2 per cent to $593.61, Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 1.9 per cent to $0.0912, Ethereum (ETH) weakened by 1.4 per cent to $2,214.56, and Ripple (XRP) crashed by 1.3 per cent to $1.33.

However, TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.9 per cent to $0.3217, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.

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