Economy
MPC Meeting: Considerations and Policy Options

By FSDH Research
Is Expansionary Monetary Policy Appropriate?
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels when it meets on January 23-24, 2017. Although the inflationary pressure and weak exchange rate justify a rate hike, it may be a difficult policy given the need to implement policies to boost growth in the economy.
The CBN will continue to use the Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage liquidity to achieve the desired goals in the short-term. At its November 2016 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 basis points and -700 basis points; retained the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that economic activity is projected to improve in 2017 especially in emerging market economies. This is contained in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update for January 2017. The IMF projects global growth at 3.4% in 2017, from an estimated growth of 3.16% in 2016. Advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.9% in 2017, from 1.6% in 2016, led by growth in the United States (U.S). The IMF projects a growth of 4.5% for the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies from an estimate of 4.1% in 2016, as policy stimulus and improvements in commodity prices aid growth.
The new administration in the U.S. led by Mr. Donald Trump has promised to embark on expansionary fiscal policy to build infrastructure and lower taxes. This policy may drive inflation rate in the U.S beyond the 2% target set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S Federal Reserve (The Fed).
The FOMC may respond by a rate hike faster than earlier anticipated. Consequently, global yields may rise with a possible capital flight from other countries into the U.S. The appropriate monetary mitigant in Nigeria under this situation is a tight monetary policy.
The IMF estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Nigeria in 2016 at 1.5%, but to grow by 0.8% in 2017. The Nigerian economy has been plagued with a number of macroeconomic issues, as well as insecurity in certain parts of the country that are now experiencing some relief. There is still foreign exchange shortages as a result of lower export revenue linked to the drop in oil price and production. There is an improvement in Nigeria’s economic outlook because of the increase in oil output and the impact of the supply cut by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the short-term, a hold decision will be appropriate.
The inflationary pressure still persists in Nigeria, as we expect the January 2017 inflation rate to increase further from the December 2016 figure. The inflation rate increased in December 2016 to 18.55%, from 18.48% in November 2016. The inflation rate in the medium term would be driven by the base effect from previous higher prices, expected good food crop harvest and, possible increase in electricity tariff and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Given the outlook of inflation rate between now and the next MPC meeting, a rate cut will be counter-productive.
The decision of the OPEC and some non-OPEC countries for coordinated cuts in oil output agreed in
November 2016 has led to a significant boost to oil prices. The average price of Bonny Light was $54.21/b in December 2016, up by 19.27% from $45.45/b in November 2016.
The price of Bonny Light crude oil also increased by 17.44% to US$55.09b as at January 17, 2017 from US$46.91/b on November 22, 2016. The secondary data from the OPEC shows that Nigeria’s oil output decreased by 7.23% to 1.54mbd in December 2016, from 1.66mbd as at November 2016. The ongoing talks in the Niger Delta region and the provision for the amnesty programme in Budget 2017 could restore oil output.
The external reserves increased consistently after the last MPC meeting in November 2016. The 30-day moving average external reserves increased by 11.51% from $24.50bn as at November 22, 2016 to $27.32bn as at January 17, 2017. The increase in oil production from September 2016 up till November 2016 boosted the external reserves. The support from the African Development Bank (AfDB) contributed to the external reserves. A rate cut may lead to capital flight. Thus, we expect the MPC to hold rates while it awaits complementary fiscal policy support.
The Naira depreciated at the inter-bank and parallel markets between the last MPC Meeting and January 17, 2017. It recorded a marginal depreciation of 0.08% at the inter-bank market to close at $1/N305.25 on January 17, 2017 from $1/N305 on November 22, 2016. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N181 after the last MPC meeting in November 2016. The parallel market rate also depreciated by 6.12% to $1/N498.50 on January 17, 2017 from $1/N468 on November 22, 2016. A rate cut may lead to further depreciation in the value of the Naira.
The average yields on the 182-day and 364-day Nigerian Government Treasury Bills (NTBs) increased to 19.17% and 22.98% in December 2016, compared with 19.11% and 22.85% respectively in November 2016.
The 91-day
NTB closed unchanged at 14.50% in December 2016. The yields on the NTBs sold on January 04, 2017 were at 14.51%, 19.17% and 22.98% on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTBs, respectively. However, the average yield on the 16% June 2019; 16.39% FGN Bond January 2022 and 10% July 2030 increased to 15.65%, 15.71% and 15.86% in December 2016 from 14.99%, 15.26% and 15.61% in November 2016. They stood at 16.37%, 16.10% and 16.30% as at January 18, 2017. The increase in yields reflects the current rising inflation rate and weak exchange rate.
The monetary aggregates and credits to the private sector grew in the first ten months of the year, and above the target rates for 2016. The growth in credit was mainly from the impact of devaluation of the Naira. The broad money supply (M2) increased by 11.21% to N22.28trn in October 2016, from N20.03trn in December 2015; an annualized growth of 13.45%. The provisional growth benchmark for 2016 is 10.98%.
The narrow money (M1) grew by 16.94% to N10.02trn in October 2016, from the end-December 2015 figure. Net Domestic Credit (NDC) also grew by 23.89% in the same period; an annualized growth of 28.67%. The provisional benchmark growth for 2016 is 17.94%. The credit to government increased by 280.06% during the period.
Similarly, credits to the private sector grew by 23.24% for October 2016, compared with December 2015; an annualized growth of 27.89%. The benchmark growth for 2016 is 13.28%.
Looking at the economic developments in the country and the impact of the external developments on the Nigerian economy, we expect the MPC to hold rates at the current levels. If the peace in the Niger Delta region is maintained, oil output may increase. This will increase exports and inflow of foreign exchange.
The need for the Federal Government Nigeria (FGN) to borrow aggressively may reduce and interest rate and inflation rate may drop. All these may take a couple of months to happen.
Economy
LIRS Reminds Companies of Annual Tax Returns Filing Deadline
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of their obligations to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year on or before January 31, 2026.
This reminder was given by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement made available to Business Post on Thursday.
In the notice signed by the chairman of the tax agency, Mr Ayodele Subair, it was stressed that filing the tax returns is an obligation as stipulated in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025.
He explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted.
Mr Subair emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.
According to Section 14 of the NTAA, employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.
“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” he noted.
The LIRS chief disclosed that electronic filing via the organisation’s eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the state.
Employers are therefore required to submit their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.
Dr Subair described the channel as secure, user-friendly, accessible 24/7, and designed to provide employers with a convenient and efficient means of fulfilling their tax obligations, advising firms to ensure that the tax identification number (Tax ID) of all employees is correctly captured in their filings, noting that employees without a Tax ID must generate one promptly to avoid disruptions during the filing process.
Economy
How Investor Confidence Is Reshaping Africa’s Digital Business Landscape
Africa’s business environment is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation. Over the past few years, investor confidence in African-focused digital companies has grown steadily, driven by stronger business fundamentals, improved technology infrastructure, and a deeper understanding of local markets. What was once viewed as a high-risk frontier is increasingly seen as a long-term growth opportunity with scalable returns.
This shift is evident in the types of startups attracting capital today. Investors are backing platforms that combine technology, recurring revenue models, and cross-border appeal—signaling a new phase in how digital businesses are built and funded across the continent.
The Evolution of Venture Capital in Africa
Early venture capital activity in Africa was largely experimental. Funding rounds were modest, timelines were short, and expectations focused on proof of concept rather than long-term scale. Today, the narrative has changed. Investors are deploying larger checks and looking beyond survival metrics toward sustainable growth, operational efficiency, and regional expansion.
Digital-first companies are particularly attractive because they can scale without heavy physical infrastructure. With mobile penetration rising and digital payments becoming more common, African startups now have access to broader audiences than ever before. This scalability has become a key selling point for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets without excessive operational complexity.
Why Digital Platforms Are Drawing Increased Attention
One notable trend is growing investment interest in digital entertainment and online platforms. These businesses benefit from high engagement, repeat usage, and diverse monetization opportunities. Unlike traditional industries, digital platforms can adapt quickly to consumer behavior and expand into new markets with relatively low marginal cost.
Recent investment activity reflects this shift. A clear example is the funding momentum around winna casino, which highlights how investors are backing tech-enabled platforms positioned for global reach rather than local limitation.
The significance of such deals goes beyond the individual company. They point to a broader willingness by investors to support African-linked digital businesses operating at the intersection of technology, finance, and entertainment.
Technology as a Driver of Business Scalability
Technology is no longer just an enabler—it is the core value proposition. Businesses that leverage automation, cloud infrastructure, and data-driven decision-making are better positioned to scale efficiently. This is particularly relevant in Africa, where legacy systems can slow down traditional business models.
Digital platforms reduce friction by offering faster transactions, better user experiences, and real-time insights. From an investor’s perspective, these efficiencies translate into lower operating risk and higher growth potential. Companies that build with scalability in mind from day one are more likely to secure follow-on funding and strategic partnerships.
Africa’s Changing Perception Among Global Investors
Global investors are increasingly reassessing Africa’s role in their portfolios. Rather than viewing the continent solely through the lens of risk, many now see demographic advantage, underpenetrated markets, and long-term consumer growth.
A growing body of international business analysis supports this outlook. Forbes, for instance, has highlighted why global investors are paying closer attention to African tech and digital businesses as part of broader emerging market strategies:
This change in perception is critical. It influences not only the volume of capital flowing into Africa but also the quality—bringing in investors with longer horizons, stronger networks, and deeper operational expertise.
The Importance of Governance and Trust
Despite the optimism, capital is not deployed blindly. Investors remain highly selective, particularly when it comes to governance, compliance, and transparency. Digital businesses operating in regulated or semi-regulated spaces are expected to demonstrate strong internal controls and responsible growth strategies.
For African startups, this means that trust has become a competitive advantage. Companies that invest early in governance structures, risk management, and user protection are better positioned to attract serious institutional capital. In the long term, this focus strengthens the overall business ecosystem.
What This Means for African Entrepreneurs
For founders, the evolving investment climate presents both opportunity and responsibility. Access to capital can accelerate growth, but it also raises expectations around execution, reporting, and accountability. Investors now expect African startups to operate at global standards while maintaining local relevance.
This environment rewards entrepreneurs who think beyond short-term gains and focus on building resilient, scalable businesses. Those who can balance innovation with discipline are more likely to thrive in an increasingly competitive funding landscape.
Looking Ahead
Africa’s digital economy is entering a more mature phase. Venture capital is no longer just fueling ideas—it is shaping business models, governance practices, and long-term strategies. As investor confidence continues to grow, digital platforms that demonstrate scalability, trust, and clear value propositions will define the next chapter of Africa’s business story.
For business leaders, policymakers, and investors alike, one thing is clear: Africa’s digital transformation is not a future promise—it is already underway, and capital is following conviction.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Seeks Naira-For-Crude Policy Expansion
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has called for the expansion of the federal government’s Naira-for-Crude policy, describing this initiative as a strong indication of support for domestic refining.
The newly appointed Managing Director of the oil facility, Mr David Bird, made this call during a press briefing at the refinery complex in Lagos, noting that the scheme has significantly contributed to stabilising the the local currency and should be expanded in Nigeria’s overall economic interest.
“I think it’s a great testimony to the level of government support that we get,” he said on Wednesday.
According to Mr Bird, between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s current crude feedstock is sourced under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement, with ongoing monthly engagements between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to determine suitable crude grades.
“Let’s say between 30 and 40 per cent of our current crude diet is on the crude-for-naira programme. We engage with NNPC monthly on the grades to buy because there is a lot of variability in the Nigerian crude grades.
“So, we have a preference, we have a wish list, and we continue to work with government support to ensure we get the right allocations,” he explained.
Mr Bird noted that while the refinery is optimised for Nigerian crude, supply volumes fluctuate.
He said approximately 30 per cent of crude supply is obtained through the Naira-for-Crude programme, another 30 per cent from Nigerian crudes purchased on the spot market, while the remaining 40 per cent comes from international grades, adding that even at that, the refinery would welcome an expansion of the policy.
“We would always like to enhance the crude-for-naira programme. Even at that level, five cargoes a month, for example, it has contributed to the stabilisation of the naira enormously,” Bird said, in response to a question.
Mr Bird added that the refinery has the capacity to absorb additional crude volumes if allocations are increased, noting that continued engagement with NNPC and the federal government is ongoing.
“We would have the potential to take further grades if and when, and we continue to engage with NNPC and the government on further increasing that,” he said, pointing to global geopolitical uncertainties as a reason Nigeria should prioritise domestic crude supply.
“It is in the country’s interest to supply domestically, because geopolitically it’s a very volatile situation. If Venezuelan crude comes back on the market, for example, it is in Nigeria’s interest to secure an offtaker through domestic refining,” he said.
The Naira-for-Crude policy, which began in October 2024, allows local refineries to purchase crude oil from NNPC in Naira instead of US Dollars. This approach reduces pressure on foreign exchange, lowers transaction costs, stabilises the local currency, and strengthens domestic refining capacity.
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