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Naira Settled Currency Futures Records Highest Daily Trading Volume in October

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By Quantitative Financial Analytics

The daily trading volume of Nigeria Settled FX currency futures has plunged over the past weeks as the original excitement that greeted its introduction appears to have waned.

An analysis of the open interest reports issued by the FMDQ indicates that the currency futures market had momentum, going by the notable and hitherto increasing trading volume the market enjoyed from June 27th until a couple of weeks ago.

Volumes, enthusiasm wane

At introduction, the Naira settled currency market was instituted as a way to manage foreign currency risk exposure by Nigerians and Nigerian companies.

As the market got underway, the trading volume peaked so much such that some analysts and observers began to wonder whether the market was being used to manage currency risk exposure or was it providing large investors with arbitrage opportunities.

However, rather than bridge the gap between the official exchange rate and that of the parallel market as intended, the divergence between the two has been increasing instead.

Market participants traded over $1 b worth of currency futures in notional terms from June 27th to July 31 (excluding matured positions). In August alone, about $1,581.69 million worth of trades was recorded with daily transaction activity ranging from as little as $3.89m to as high as $340.63m, according to analysis by Quantitative Financial Analytics.

In comparison, currency futures trading volume fell dramatically in September as $785.15m notional was traded the entire month. Daily trading peaked on September 9, reaching $110.02m and $92.97 on 27th September.

If the trading volume in September was poor, that of October has been dismal as the FX Futures market seems to have suffered excitement fatigue.

So far in October, only $116.84 notional value has been traded with the daily transaction activity ranging from a low of $0.5m on 10/11/16 to a high of $19.57 (10/4/16). There was not a single trade on October 12th but the lull in the market seems to have eased as a whopping $43.07 million trading volume was recorded on October 18, the highest so far in October.

The reason for the declining interest could be because investors are beginning to see the market as one that does not have much to offer beyond their speculative value but for a currency like the Naira whose direction is easy to predict, there may not be much to speculate on.

Again, the divergence between the official and parallel market rates makes it less attractive to contract to sell dollar via the futures market.

Furthermore, the convergence of the NIFEX rate and the contract rates on the futures makes it more difficult to extract arbitrage opportunities from the futures contracts and therefore less attractive.

For analysts and market watchers wondering if there is a future for currency futures in Nigeria, it does look like the end is not near for the market as trading volume could peak at any time.

Source: Quantitative Financial Analytics/FMDQ

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Oil Market Falls 3% as Ships Sail Through Disrupted Hormuz Route

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was down about 3 per cent on Monday after some vessels sailed through the critical Strait ​of Hormuz that has been largely shut down during the escalating war with Iran.

Iran has allowed some Indian vessels to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, sinking Brent futures by $2.93 or 2.8 per cent to $100.21 a barrel, as the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude drowned $5.21 or 5.3 per cent to settle at $93.50 per barrel.

The country also asked India to release three tankers seized in ​February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels through the strait.

This was confirmed by the US with Treasury Secretary, Mr Scott Bessent, saying the US is fine with some Iranian, Indian and Chinese ships going through the Strait of Hormuz for now, adding that any action to mitigate higher prices would depend on how long the war lasts.

Meanwhile, allies rebuffed US President Donald Trump’s call for help in unblocking the strait. He said his administration has contacted roughly seven countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude shipments and expects them to help secure the route.

The majority of crude moving through the strait ultimately heads to Asian markets, including China, India, Japan and South Korea.

According to the Associated Press, Chinese officials declined to directly address the request when asked during a daily briefing on Monday, instead reiterating their broader call for de-escalation in the region.

The Executive Director of the International Energy Information (EIA), Mr Fatih Birol, said on Monday that member countries could release more oil ​into the market from strategic stockpiles after they agreed to the largest-ever release of 400 million barrels last week.

The European Union (EU) foreign ministers are discussing on Monday the potential to move an already operational mission in the Middle East region to try to help unblock the Strait.

President Trump also threatened further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, which handles about 90 per cent of the country’s exports, after hitting military targets there that spurred further retaliation from Iran. On its part, Israel said it has detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war.

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Economy

FG Introduces iDICE Startup Bridge to Fund Early, Post-MVP Startups

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iDICE Startup Bridge

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has launched the iDICE Startup Bridge, a structured two-track initiative that will offer idea-stage founders grants of up to N10 million and equity investment of $100,000 for startups that have already built and launched their Minimum Viable Product (MVP).

Launched in 2023 with $617.7 million in funding, iDICE was designed to promote investment in Nigeria’s digital and creative sectors. iDICE, implemented through the Bank of Industry and financed by the African Development Bank, Agence Française de Développement, and the Islamic Development Bank, iDICE Startup Bridge, operates under the broader Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises (iDICE) program. It is part of efforts to drive Nigeria’s digital economy growth.

It made its first startup investment in late 2025 through Ventures Platform, one of Africa’s most active seed-stage venture capital firms.

The iDICE Startup Bridge is the government’s latest effort under the initiative to deepen early-stage startup support through structured training, mentorship, and access to capital.

The Founders Lab, the first pathway under the Startup Bridge, opened for applications on March 16 and will close on April 20. Selected beneficiaries will embark on a 12-week capacity-building programme designed for idea-stage and early prototype founders. The programme focuses on validation, business model development, and MVP creation through a structured curriculum delivered by expert facilitators.

Each year, 250 participants will receive capacity-building support and mentoring, with the top 100 founders who meet programme milestones receiving grants of up to N10 million to support product development or the launch of their ventures.

The Growth Lab, scheduled to launch in a later phase, will target post-MVP startups demonstrating traction, revenue potential, and operational readiness. Selected startups will receive $100,000 in equity investment, along with support to scale operations, strengthen governance, and refine their fundraising strategy.

The programme will also provide a direct pipeline to institutional investors to enable follow-on funding, while startups that secure additional investment from qualified external investors may access match funding.

Speaking on this, Ms Cindy Ezerioha, Head of Founders Lab, iDICE Startup Bridge, said, “Each cohort will support 125 aspiring entrepreneurs, with a clear target of ensuring progress from concept to validated business models. This programme is built for people with innovative ideas, early prototypes, or unanswered questions about how to take their first real step.”

According to Vice President Kashim Shettima and Chairman of the iDICE Steering Committee, “This programme, created under the iDICE umbrella, gives young entrepreneurs across the country a real opportunity to build or scale, and we are confident in its ability to reshape early-stage enterprise development and innovation outcomes over time.”

The Bank of Industry, the implementing agency, says it has disbursed N636 billion to enterprises across various sectors in Nigeria, its largest annual disbursement. Out of this figure, N43 billion was disbursed to projects in the creative & digital sectors.

“We are happy to replicate our success over time with the iDICE Startup Bridge as well,” said Mr Olasupo Olusi, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Bank of Industry.

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Economy

Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.

The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.

The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.

The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.

The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.

Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.

The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.

“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.

“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.

The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.

“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.

“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”

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