Economy

Naira to Appreciate This Week Amidst Drop in Reserves, FPIs Inflows

Published

6 years ago

30/09/2019

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

There are strong indications that the Naira will appreciate at the foreign exchange (forex) market this week, analysts at Cowry Asset and Business Post have predicted.

According to Business Post analysts, the domestic currency will record a marginal gain against the Dollar in the four-day trading week despite the expected decline in the nation’s external reserves.

As at last Wednesday, data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) by Business Post showed that the reserves were at $42.1 billion from $42.2 billion in the previous day.

From our analysis, the local currency will get an unusual strength from the easing of pressure from the demand of FX from investors as well as exporters at their market segment.

In the past few days, Business Post has observed lower demand for the foreign currency at the I&E window as shown by the FMDQ, a platform which gives update on the daily turnover at the market.

Last Tuesday, the Naira depreciated after market demand for FX rose by 37 percent to trade at N362.29/$, and the next day, a 35.8 percent decline in the turnover left the local currency flat at N362.29/$.

On Thursday, the Naira lost 29 kobo to trade at N362.58/$ despite a marginal 9.2 percent drop in demand for FX at the I$E segment. But on Friday, the Naira appreciated to N362.02/$1 after gaining 56 kobo on 59.4 percent decline in the market turnover for the third straight session.

It was observed that the decrease in the turnover is attributed to the inflow of forex into the country from foreign portfolio investors, who are finding Nigerian markets attractive again especially with the low prices stocks are being traded at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as well as rising yields of bonds and treasury bills.

This point was buttressed by analysts at Cowry Asset, who said, “In the new week, we expect appreciation of the Naira against the USD across the market segments as seemingly renewed interest by foreign portfolio investors in local financial assets is further felt amid rate cut in US.”

Last week, Naira appreciated at the I&E to close at N362.02/$, but traded flat at the Bureau De Change as well as the parallel (black) markets, closing at N358.00/$ and N360.00/$ respectively.

Also, at the interbank segment, the domestic currency depreciated to N358.13/$ despite the weekly injections of $210 million by the CBN into the FX market via the Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS).

In the intervention, the apex bank allocated $100 million to Wholesale SMIS, $55 million to Small and Medium Scale Enterprises and another $55 million for invisibles.

Meanwhile, the Naira/USD exchange rate fell (i.e. Naira appreciated) for most of the foreign exchange forward contracts – one month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months rates fell by 0.11 percent, 0.09 percent, 0.03 percent, 0.26 percent and 0.42 percent to close at N365.31/$, N368.73/$, N372.28/$, N382.97/$ and N409.45/$ respectively. However, spot rate was flattish at N306.95/$.

Economy

Nigeria’s Oil Production Drops 64,000b/d to 1.401m/d in April 2025

Published

1 hour ago

07/05/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production declined by 64,000 barrels per day or 4.4 per cent to 1.401 million barrels per day in April 2025 from 1.465 million barrels per day recorded in the preceding month (March).

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) April Monthly Oil Market Report revealed this, saying the numbers are based on direct communication from the producing countries.

The report also indicated that oil production fell by 6.6 per cent below OPEC’s 1.5 million barrels per day quota, and approximately 32 per cent belief of the country’s 2025 budget target of 2.06 million barrels per day.

Nigeria’s persistent shortfalls in meeting government production targets comes from challenges such as underinvestment and rampant oil theft, all contributing to suppressed output.

Nigeria’s oil production peaked at 2.5 million barrels decades ago and despite ambitious 3-4 million barrels promises by subsequent governments, the highest actualisation in recent times have been 1.8 million barrels per day.

The decline in oil production since then and the falling oil prices in the international market are likely to strain fiscal revenues, worsening budgetary pressures

Market analysts have pointed out that this will impact national reserves, thereby reducing the availability of resources for developmental spending.

While the government has no control over global oil prices, it can, to some extent, meet its OPEC production quota.

Therefore, the government must intensify efforts by enforcing stricter penalties for oil theft, while fostering greater collaboration with local communities.

Simultaneously, there is a need to attract investment in the sector by ensuring that regulatory bodies and the judiciary work together to provide an enabling environment for investment and modernisation of oil infrastructure.

Economy

USDT/Naira Stablecoin Pair Emerges Most Traded on Crypto Exchanges

Published

2 hours ago

07/05/2025

Modupe Gbadeyanka

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A new report has shown the wide adoption of digital currencies in Nigeria despite efforts by the authorities to discourage the use of crypto.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has yet to lift the ban of crypto transactions through the banking system in the country after almost five years.

In a report made available to Business Post by a venture capital firm, Hashed Emergent, it was stated that the USDT/Naira stablecoin pair has become the most traded on centralized exchanges, with stablecoin transfers in Nigeria nearing $3 billion in the first quarter of 2024, signalling the practical adoption of blockchain for real-world challenges like inflation and cross-border payments.

Last year, Nigeria ranked second globally for crypto adoption, according to Chainalysis, with $59 billion in crypto value received—$24 billion of that in stablecoins.

Stablecoin trading has overtaken Bitcoin trading on centralized exchanges, reflecting changing behaviour: for many, crypto is not speculative—it’s practical; it is how people hedge against inflation, send money, and make real-world payments.

According to the report, national agencies and multiple state governments are already implementing blockchain-based solutions across areas like identity verification, land registries, education records, and healthcare systems.

These aren’t pilots; they’re operational systems designed to improve transparency, efficiency, and trust in public services.

However, integration into existing public infrastructure remains a key challenge. Many legacy systems lack the technical readiness or interoperability needed for seamless adoption, and institutional capacity gaps—such as limited digital skills and fragmented procurement processes—continue to slow implementation.

Without addressing these bottlenecks, the long-term impact of public sector blockchain adoption may remain limited despite early momentum.

Economy

ExxonMobil Plans $1.5bn Investment in Usan Deepwater Oil Field

Published

2 hours ago

07/05/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

ExxonMobil is planning a $1.5 billion investment in deepwater exploration and development of the Usan oilfield in Nigeria.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed this in a statement, noting that commitment will be implemented between this current quarter (Q2 2025) and 2027.

This announcement, it said, was made during a visit by ExxonMobil’s Managing Director in Nigeria, Mr Shane Harris, to the Commission’s Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Mr Gbenga Komolafe.

The company proposed a Final Investment Decision (FID) for late Q3 2025, subject to final Field Development Plan (FDP) approval as well as internal and partner funding approvals, the upstream regulator added.

According to the NUPRC, this is in addition to investment targeted at the accelerated development of the Owowo and Erha deepwater oil fields, amongst others.

Mr Harris, while speaking, stated that the planned capital deployment reflects ExxonMobil’s confidence in Nigeria’s upstream potential and its dedication to playing a pivotal role in the sector’s growth.

He also voiced ExxonMobil’s support for the NUPRC’s “Project 1 Million Barrels” initiative, which aims to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2.4 million barrels per day in the medium term.

The initiative has gotten commitments from other oil firms operating in the country since it was floated last year.

On his part, the NUPRC Chief Executive, Mr Komolafe, welcomed the announcement, reaffirming the NUPRC’s role as a business enabler and pledging regulatory support to facilitate ExxonMobil’s operations.

Mr Komolafe highlighted the importance of sustained collaboration between regulators and investors to meet Nigeria’s production and energy security goals, highlighting compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) and the need for transparent pricing and accountability in the sector.

“The commission is committed to the implementation of Section 109 of the PIA, which addresses the subject of willing buyer, willing seller, and we urge producers to comply,” he stated.