Economy
Naira to Appreciate This Week Amidst Drop in Reserves, FPIs Inflows
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
There are strong indications that the Naira will appreciate at the foreign exchange (forex) market this week, analysts at Cowry Asset and Business Post have predicted.
According to Business Post analysts, the domestic currency will record a marginal gain against the Dollar in the four-day trading week despite the expected decline in the nation’s external reserves.
As at last Wednesday, data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) by Business Post showed that the reserves were at $42.1 billion from $42.2 billion in the previous day.
From our analysis, the local currency will get an unusual strength from the easing of pressure from the demand of FX from investors as well as exporters at their market segment.
In the past few days, Business Post has observed lower demand for the foreign currency at the I&E window as shown by the FMDQ, a platform which gives update on the daily turnover at the market.
Last Tuesday, the Naira depreciated after market demand for FX rose by 37 percent to trade at N362.29/$, and the next day, a 35.8 percent decline in the turnover left the local currency flat at N362.29/$.
On Thursday, the Naira lost 29 kobo to trade at N362.58/$ despite a marginal 9.2 percent drop in demand for FX at the I$E segment. But on Friday, the Naira appreciated to N362.02/$1 after gaining 56 kobo on 59.4 percent decline in the market turnover for the third straight session.
It was observed that the decrease in the turnover is attributed to the inflow of forex into the country from foreign portfolio investors, who are finding Nigerian markets attractive again especially with the low prices stocks are being traded at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as well as rising yields of bonds and treasury bills.
This point was buttressed by analysts at Cowry Asset, who said, “In the new week, we expect appreciation of the Naira against the USD across the market segments as seemingly renewed interest by foreign portfolio investors in local financial assets is further felt amid rate cut in US.”
Last week, Naira appreciated at the I&E to close at N362.02/$, but traded flat at the Bureau De Change as well as the parallel (black) markets, closing at N358.00/$ and N360.00/$ respectively.
Also, at the interbank segment, the domestic currency depreciated to N358.13/$ despite the weekly injections of $210 million by the CBN into the FX market via the Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS).
In the intervention, the apex bank allocated $100 million to Wholesale SMIS, $55 million to Small and Medium Scale Enterprises and another $55 million for invisibles.
Meanwhile, the Naira/USD exchange rate fell (i.e. Naira appreciated) for most of the foreign exchange forward contracts – one month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months rates fell by 0.11 percent, 0.09 percent, 0.03 percent, 0.26 percent and 0.42 percent to close at N365.31/$, N368.73/$, N372.28/$, N382.97/$ and N409.45/$ respectively. However, spot rate was flattish at N306.95/$.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) has called on state and local governments to account for the N10.4 trillion they received from resources generated following the removal of the petrol subsidy.
The Director-General of NECA, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, made the call on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily on Thursday morning, a day after the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed details of the financial impact of the federal government’s economic reforms.
Mr Oyedele had said the removal of the petrol subsidy and reforms to the foreign exchange market mobilised N15.8 trillion for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
According to the minister, the federal government received N5.4 trillion of the amount, while N10.4 trillion was distributed to state and local governments through the Federation Account.
Reacting to the disclosure, Mr Oyerinde said the states and local governments should now provide details of how the funds they received were utilised.
He particularly called on state commissioners for finance to disclose the amounts their respective governments received and how the funds were spent.
“Absolutely. I think it should trickle down. The commissioners of finance in states, you come out and also say, this is how much we’ve received; this is how much we have spent,” he said on the television programme.
Mr Oyerinde compared the expected disclosure by governments to the financial reporting obligations of private businesses, where companies present audited accounts and performance reports to shareholders.
“We believe strongly that as private businesses, at the end of the year you audit your accounts, you present your scorecard to your shareholders to gauge what we have done. The Minister of Finance has led the way now, and the states also should follow,” he said.
The NECA director-general urged state governments to provide a breakdown of the funds received, the challenges encountered and how the money was deployed.
“And so this is how much we have received. These are the constraints we face, and this is how we have expended this amount. I think we should move progressively towards transparency in government,” he said.
Mr Oyerinde commended the Federal Government for publicly disclosing details of its finances, describing the presentation by the finance minister as a step towards greater transparency in public administration.
He said the level of detail provided by Mr Oyedele would enable citizens and other stakeholders to better scrutinise government spending and assess the impact of the reforms.
The NECA boss also said greater disclosure by the sub-national governments would allow citizens to engage state and local governments more constructively on the use of public funds.
“I also put citizens, and I must say this, citizens are also in a good position now to engage constructively, engage the state governments constructively, and also engage local governments constructively, because that is where development should actually start,” Mr Oyerinde said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said from the N15.8 trillion in subsidy savings, N5.4 trillion went to the federal government, and N10.4 trillion was shared between the 36 states and the 774 local governments of the federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
Mr Oyedele disclosed this on Wednesday in Abuja while presenting the federal government’s Nigeria’s Reform Scorecard: The Benefits, Costs and Harms Prevented, an assessment of the economic reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu.
The finance minister said the N15.8 trillion in subsidy savings was distributed through the Federation Account, rather than being retained entirely by the federal government.
According to him, the central government received N5.4 trillion, representing about 34 per cent of the total savings, the states received N6.5 trillion, or 41 per cent, and the local councils received N3.9 trillion, representing about 24 per cent.
The combined N10.4 trillion allocated to states and local governments accounted for almost two-thirds of the total subsidy savings and was nearly twice the amount received by the federal government.
Mr Oyedele clarified that the N15.8 trillion should not be understood as money accumulated in a dedicated government account labelled “subsidy savings”.
Rather, he said the impact of the reforms was reflected in increased resources available to the federation through higher revenue collections, which were subsequently shared among the three tiers of government through the Federation Account.
The minister said the federal government’s N5.4 trillion share formed only one component of the additional resources available to it during the period.
It also recorded N3.1 trillion in incremental independent revenue, mainly from remittances by government-owned entities, and obtained N11.9 trillion in incremental borrowing.
Together, the three sources provided the federal government with N20.4 trillion in incremental resources between June 2023 and December 2025.
Mr Oyedele said the distribution of the subsidy savings underscored that the reform was not designed simply to increase Federal Government revenue, as a substantial portion of the additional resources accrued to the sub-national governments.
“The reform was never introduced for revenue purposes, but to address entrenched corruption in an artificially managed fuel subsidy and foreign exchange market,” he said.
He added that the federal government subsequently deployed its additional resources, alongside funds from its existing revenue base, to meet N30.64 trillion in incremental expenditure during the period.
Of the N20.4 trillion in incremental resources available to the federal government, borrowing accounted for 58 per cent, subsidy savings for 27 per cent and other revenue for 15 per cent.
The minister said the figures provided a clearer picture of how the financial impact of the subsidy reform was distributed across the Federation, with states and local governments collectively receiving the largest share.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL) Plc has expressed satisfaction with the growing participation of non-interest financial institutions in its credit risk guarantees for loans to farmers, processors, aggregators, exporters and other businesses across multiple agricultural value chains.
The chief executive of the non-bank financial institution created by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to de-risk agricultural lending in the country, Mr Sa’ad Hamidu, said non-interest lenders accounted for well over 50 per cent of the loans guaranteed by NIRSAL in the first half of 2026.
In 2025, the company guaranteed more than N100 billion to beneficiaries, and according to Mr Hamidu, this figure has already been surpassed in 2026 year-to-date.
Speaking at the AFRACA Masterclass on Inclusive Finance for Climate Resilience and Artificial Intelligence for Financial Services and Agricultural Finance in Lagos, the NIRSAL chief stated that the trend demonstrates what becomes possible when appropriate risk-sharing frameworks create sufficient confidence for different forms of capital to participate in agriculture.
“At NIRSAL, we have always maintained that agriculture, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, is not underfinanced because opportunities do not exist, but because the risks have not been sufficiently understood, measured, appropriately priced, and managed,” Mr Hamidu, represented by the agency’s Executive Director of Operations, Mr Ewaen Imohe, said.
He explained that NIRSAL’s response has been to co-develop systems and financing frameworks that bring greater structure to agricultural value chains, better define and mitigate their risks, and improve financiers’ understanding of the sector and confidence to lend.
The NIRSAL boss described the masterclass as particularly timely, noting that climate change is no longer an abstract global concern but a practical reality confronting farmers, agribusinesses and their financiers every production season across Africa.
The programme’s first major theme, Inclusive Finance for Climate Resilience, exposed participants to the concepts, tools, and approaches required to understand climate risk and develop financeable adaptation and mitigation projects.
For the second major theme, Artificial Intelligence for Financial Services and Agricultural Finance, Mr Hamidu expressed the expectation that participants would move beyond the excitement surrounding AI to examine how it can improve risk understanding, transaction assessment, and financial decision-making in agriculture.
He also pointed to opportunities for technology to complement climate finance, blended finance, grants, and other innovative mechanisms capable of expanding the financial and technical resources available to African agriculture.
On deepening AFRACA-NIRSAL collaboration, he stated that, “AFRACA, for us, is a platform for knowledge, continental exchange, and global insight. On our part, we remain a results-driven source of practical experience for AFRACA member countries.”
