Economy
NEITI Calls for Review of Oil Producing Agreements
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The need to urgently review the Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Agreement between Nigeria and oil companies has been stressed by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI).
In a statement signed by its Director in charge of Communications and Advocacy, Dr Orji Ogbonnaya Orji, the agency explained that the urgency to review the obsolete legislation without further delay was in view of the revenue losses to the federation by the use of the old agreement in computation of revenues to be shared between the government and oil companies.
NEITI recalled that the Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contracts Act of 1993 provides for: “ a review of the terms when prices of oil crosses $20 in real term; and a review of the terms 15 years after operation of the agreement and five years subsequently.”
However, NEITI said it observes with concern that Nigeria was yet to adhere to this important provision even now that the price of oil was revolving around $70 per barrel.
In an Occasional Paper released by NEITI which reviewed three years of NNPC’s financial and operations reports, NEITI has noted that crude oil production under the Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) has since overtaken production under the Joint Venture arrangements.
A careful look shows that the Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) accounted for 44.8 percent of total oil production while the Joint Ventures (JVs) contributed 31.35 percent.
A historical analysis of this development by NEITI shows that JV Companies accounted for over 97 percent of Production in 1998 while PSCs contributed only 0.50 percent.
This trend continued until 2012 when PSCs accounted for 37.58 percent while JVs contributed 36.91 percent.
From the publication in 2013, PSCs contributed 39.22 percent while JVs contributed 36.65 percent, 2014: PSCs; 40.10 percent and JVs 32.10 percent; 2015: PSCs 41.45 percent and JVs 31.99 percent while in 2017 the contributions stood at PSCs 44.32 percent and 30.85 percent respectively.
The NEITI Occasional Paper further explained that: “Other companies, comprising Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Alternative Financing (AF), and Independent/ Marginal Fields contributed 2.39 percent to total production in 1998 and by 2017 this had risen to 24.83 percent.
“This figure clearly shows the changing structure of oil production in Nigeria, where PSCs (which contributed a mere 0.5 percent to total production 20 years ago) have dramatically overtaken JVs (which contributed 97 percent to total production 20 years ago)”.
Between 2015 and 2017 covered by NEITI’s Occasional Paper review of NNPC Report, Nigeria produced 2.126 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate.
A Further review of the NNPC Report shows that: “Production was highest in 2015 with 775.6 million barrels produced. Production was lowest in 2016 with 661.1 million barrels produced, while production in 2017 was 690 million barrels.
“The year 2016 was a difficult year for oil production because production was shut in a number of oil terminals”.
NEITI said its major concern is that now that the PSCs account for about 50 percent of total oil production and major source of revenues, the delay or failure to review and renew the agreement means that payment of royalty on oil production under PSCs would not be made while computation of taxes would be based on the old rates.
On lifting of crude oil, the NNPC Monthly Financial and Operations Report disclosed “international oil companies (IOCs) lifted more crude oil than the government.
“Total lifting of crude oil and condensates was 2.135 billion barrels. Of this sum, IOCs and Independents lifted a total of 1.367 billion barrels, while government’s lifting by NNPC was 721.16 million barrels.
“This means that the operators lifted 64.01 percent of total crude lifting’s, while government through NNPC lifted 33.76 percent. When expressed in monetary terms, total government lifting of oil amounted to $35.893 billion while the figure for IOCs and Independents was $68.591 billion”
The NNPC Report further disclosed that refineries received 15.15 percent of total domestic crude lifting out of which 41.32 percent was utilized under the Direct Sale Direct Purchase (DSDP) program of NNPC.
On Refineries and domestic crude utilization, the report disclosed that for the 3 years under review, Nigeria’s refineries recorded an average capacity utilization of 12.26 percent.
A further breakdown shows that Kaduna refinery had the lowest capacity utilization of 9 percent while Warri and Port Harcourt recorded 9.73 percent and 15.4 percent respectively.
One striking feature of the NNPC financial operations report is the disclosure that the corporation lost the sum of N547 billion in its operation between 2015 and 2017.
Out of this amount, the NNPC Corporate Headquarters recorded the highest revenue loss to the tune of N336.268 billion.
On the contrary, the report revealed that the Nigeria Gas company made a huge profit of N141.324 billion.
NEITI said while it applauds the monthly voluntary disclosures by the NNPC, it was important to note that NEITI through its auditors under the EITI framework has not independently verified the information and data from the NNPC reports.
“NEITI has not, except for the year 2015, independently validated the data from NNPC. This will be done in ongoing and future reconciliation reports. What has been done here is a preliminary analysis of the data that NNPC has made available for the three-year period. The figures examined here do not represent the sum total of all revenues from the sector, as other payment streams like royalties and taxes from JVs, signature bonuses, transportation rental fees, NESS fees, penalties and others are not covered by the NNPC financial and operational reports” the NEITI Report concluded.
NEITI however commended the NNPC for the reconciliation of the crude swap under-delivery transaction executed during the crude- for- product- swap.
NEITI also urged the corporation to sustain the new spirit of openness while encouraging the citizens to use the information and data from the NNPC’s disclosures to promote public debate required in implementing the on-going reforms in the extractive sector.
The NEITI Occasional Paper series which reviewed the 3 years of NNPC operations and financial reports is the third in the series. In the pursuit of EITI global Open Data Policy, NEITI has data set for the three years (2015 -2017) in excel format readily available on its website in support of public interest, analysis and debate.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil was down by around 4 per cent on Thursday after the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, said the crackdown on protesters in Iran was easing, calming concerns over potential military action against the Middle-East country and oil supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures depreciated by $2.76 or 4.15 per cent to $63.76 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $2.83 or 4.56 per cent, to $59.19 a barrel.
President Trump said he had been told that killings during Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing and he believed there was no current plan for large-scale executions, though he warned that the US was still weighing military action against the oil producer, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Countries (OPEC).
Thousands of people are reported to have been killed in the weeks-long protests, and the American president has vowed to support demonstrators, saying help was “on its way.”
Iran has threatened the US with reprisals were it to be attacked, alongside conciliatory signals, including the suspension of a protester’s execution.
The New York Times reported that many of the US Gulf allies, including several of Iran’s own rivals, have also pushed against a US military intervention, warning that the ripple effects would undermine regional security and damage their reputations as havens for foreign capital.
Regardless, the US withdrew some personnel from military bases in the Middle East, after a senior Iranian official said Iran had told neighbours it would hit American bases if America strikes.
Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a US embargo, with crude exports also resuming. The OPEC member’s oil exports fell close to zero in the weeks after the US imposed a blockade on oil shipments in December, with only Chevron exporting crude from its joint ventures with PDVSA under US license.
The embargo left millions of barrels stuck in onshore tanks and vessels. As storage filled, PDVSA was forced to shut wells and order oil production cuts at joint ventures in the country.
With this development, the Venezuelan state oil company is now instructing the joint ventures to resume output from well clusters that were shut.
On the demand side, OPEC said on Wednesday that 2027 oil demand was likely to rise at a similar pace to this year and published data indicating a near balance between supply and demand in 2026, contrasting with other forecasts of a glut.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), quoting primary sources, noted that the oil output was below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota for the nation.
The OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million barrels per day, Q2: 1.481 million barrels per day, Q3: 1.444 million barrels per day, and 1.42 million barrels per day in Q4.
However, the cartel acknowledged that despite the gradual decrease in oil production, Nigeria’s non-oil sector grew in the second half of last year.
The organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
According to the report, cooling inflation, a stronger Naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.
It forecast inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.
OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday revealed that inflation rate for December 2025 stood at 15.15 per cent compared with the 14.45 per cent it put the previous month.
However, it recalculated the November 2025 inflation rate at 17.33 per cent after using a 12-month index reference period where the average consumer price index (CPI) for the 12 months of 2024 is equated to 100. This is a departure from the single-month index reference period, in which December 2024 was set to 100, which would have produced an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate.
The NBS had earlier informed stakeholders a few days ago that it was changing its methodology for inflation to reflect the economic reality. This is coming after the organisation changed the base year from 2009 to 2024 earlier in 2025.
In its report released today, the stats agency explained that this process was in line with international best practice as contained in the Consumer Price Index Inter-national Monetary Fund (IMF) Manual, specifically in Section 9.125 and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual, which address index reference period maximisation, following a rebasing exercise.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 0.54 per cent, lower than the 1.22 per cent recorded in November 2025.
The NBS also revealed that on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate for last month stood at 14.85 per cent versus 37.29 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it jumped to 0.99 per cent from 0.95 per cent in the preceding month.
As for the rural inflation rate in December 2025, it stood at 14.56 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 32.47 per cent in December 2024, and on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.55 per cent from 1.88 per cent in November 2025.
It was also disclosed that food inflation rate in December 2025 was 10.84 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 39.84 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.36 per cent from 1.13 per cent in November 2025 (1.13%).
This was attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, grounded pepper, fresh onions and others.
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