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NGX Exhibits Resilience, Gains N15.25trn in Five Months Amid Headwinds

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NGX investors

Amidst domestic and global economic headwinds, Nigerian Exchange Limited’s market capitalisation gained N15.25 trillion in value in the first five months of 2024 as investors continued to invest in fundamentally sound quoted companies on the bourse.

The N15.25 trillion market capitalisation growth is coming amid the spate of rising insecurity, inflation, and hikes in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy rate, among other macroeconomic challenges and global uncertainty.

Specifically, the overall market capitalisation closed May 2024 at N56.172 trillion, gaining N15.25 trillion or 37.28 per cent from N40.917 trillion the stock market opened for trading this year.

Consequently, the NGX ASI increased to 99,300.38 basis points, about 24,526.61 or 32.8 per cent Year-to-Date (YtD) performance from 74,773.77 basis points it closed for trading in 2023.

At 32.8 per cent growth in a major market index, the Nigerian stock market still maintains its position as the most performing Exchange in Africa.

Also, the management of the Exchange has enforced compliance, transparency and a market-friendly environment that continues to impact heavy participation in stock trading by both local and foreign investors.

Since the beginning of 2024, the stock market has witnessed an unprecedented rally and buying interest, especially in the industrial goods, oil & gas sector and consumer and sub-sector, which has continued to trigger massive bargain hunting in large company shares.

For instance, the NGX Industrial Index has gained 73.08 per cent YtD to 4,694.42 basis points as of May 2024, while the NGX Consumer Goods Index appreciated by 39.5 per cent to close at 1,564.19 basis points.

The taking position in Dangote Cement Plc influenced the 73.08 per cent YtD growth in the NGX Industrial Index.

The stock price of Dangote Cement has appreciated to N656.70 per share as of May 2024, about 105.28 per cent growth from N319.9 per share the stock opened for trading this year.

Among the top index performance was NGX Oil/Gas Index which gained 24.07 per cent YtD performance to 1,294.16 basis points and NGX Insurance Index which gained 14.17 per cent to close May 2024 at 367.23 basis points.

Amid reforms in the banking sector, the NGX Banking Index dropped by 11.13 per cent to close May 2024 at 797.37 basis points as investors trade listed banking stocks with caution.

Capital market analysts stated that the stock market performance in five months of 2024 is against the backdrop of mixed corporate first quarter ended March 2024 earnings by listed companies, the federal government’s reforms in the foreign exchange market, and fuel subsidy removal.

The Vice President of Highcap Securities Limited, Mr David Adnori, stated that investors traded based on sentiment.

Adnori stated that the emergence of Bola Tinubu as president further energised the stock market since market participants had confidence in his ability to rejig the economy and implement economy-friendly policies.

Adnori was also optimistic that the stock market might maintain its positive momentum in the second quarter of 2024, against the backdrop of banking sector recapitalisation that is expected to trigger investors’ buying rights issues from listed banks.

Amid the hike in MPR to 26.25 per cent, capital market experts stated that its impact had created sentiment trading among investors who saw the fixed-income market as an alternative investment opportunity to hedge against double-digit inflation.

At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, stated that the key focus of the Committee remained to achieve price stability by effectively using tools available to the monetary authority to rein in inflation.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued to climb to 33.69 per cent in April 2024, its highest since March 1996, up from 33.2 per cent in the prior month.

This marks the 16th consecutive month of acceleration in inflation, partly because of renewed weakness in the naira coupled with the removal of fuel subsidies.

An investment banker and stockbroker, Mr.Tajudeen Olayinka, stated that the drive by many investors to hedge against inflationary spirals put their buy interests in equity.

Olayinka stated, “And this is demonstrated by a simultaneous rise in interest rates and equity prices. Beyond this analogy, the economy is still grossly awash with Godwin Emefiele’s N30 trillion illegally printed for the use of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

“So, there is excess liquidity in the system, chasing fewer profitable investment opportunities in the economy.”

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Economy

NASD Index Rises 0.89% as Market Capitalisation Hits N2.580trn

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NASD Unlisted Securities Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange improved by 0.89 per cent on Tuesday, June 30, spurring the market capitalisation to chalk up N22.72 billion to close at N2.580 trillion, in contrast to the preceding session’s N2.557 trillion.

In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) added 37.85 points during the session to settle at 4,2991.41 points from Monday’s 4,261.56 points.

The unlisted securities market gained weight yesterday after finishing with three price losers and gainers, led by Nipco Plc, which improved its share price by N34.24 to N384.00 per unit from N349.76 per unit. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N10.25 to close at N152.01 per share versus N141.76 per share, and Food Concepts Plc soared by 7 Kobo to settle at N2.50 per unit versus N2.43 per unit.

On the flip side, Afriland Properties Plc weakened by N1.57 to N15.17 per share from N16.74 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc lost 48 Kobo to trade at N88.00 per unit compared with Monday’s N88.48 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc eased by 24 Kobo to N2.37 per share from N2.61 per share.

During the session, the volume of securities traded by market participants moved up by 268.9 per cent to 846,063 units from 229,314 units, while the value of securities dropped 34.9 per cent to N15.99 million from N24.6 million, and the number of deals crashed by 26.5 per cent to 25 deals from 34 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, the second spot was occupied by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and the third spot was taken by CSCS Plc with 68.8 million units traded for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc also ended the day as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Naira Strengthens to N1,379/1$ at Official Market

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currency in circulation eNaira

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar by N3.95 0r 0.29 per cent to exchange at N1,379.68/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 30, compared with the previous day’s N1,383.63/$1.

The positive movement was also seen against the Pound Sterling at the same official market window, where it gained N6.59 to trade at N1,825.05/£1 versus the preceding day’s N1,831.64/£1, and improved against the Euro by N5.05 to sell for N1,572.98/€1 compared with Monday’s price of N1,578.03/€1.

At the GTBank FX counter, the Nigerian Naira, however, lost N2 against the Dollar yesterday to quote at N1,389/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,387/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1,

A look at the cryptocurrency market yesterday showed that Bitcoin (BTC) depleted for the fifth straight day, selling at $58,668.93. This sits below the levels that sparked rebounds in February and earlier in June, as well as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Dogecoin (DOGE) crashed by 1.5 per cent to sell at $0.0713, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 1.4 per cent to close at $544.98, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 1.0 per cent to $1,574.60, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.8 per cent to $0.3164, and Ripple (XRP) dropped 0.8 per cent to finish at $1.03.

Conversely, Cardano (ADA) grew by 2.9 per cent to $0.1493, and Solana (SOL) increased by 0.3 per cent to $74.19, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Oil Market Gains as Iran-US Negotiations Face Fresh Uncertainty

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global oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market rose on Wednesday morning amid concerns that breakdowns in ‌discussions between Iran and the United States for a final agreement to end their war may extend supply disruptions in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent futures gained 33 cents or 0.45 per cent to trade at $73.28 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ​climbed 34 cents or 0.49 per cent to $69.84 a barrel.

US officials arrived in Qatar for talks on the Iran war, but will meet with mediators, not Iranian negotiators. The lack of direct talks further complicates efforts to find a lasting end to the conflict and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The representatives, which include US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff, arrived in ​Doha for what the White House described as “high-level” talks on Tuesday, but Iran and host Qatar said they would meet with mediators, rather than the Iranians themselves.

The Wall Street Journal reported that while hardline military officials are pushing for full control of Hormuz, Iranian civilian leaders like President Masoud Pezeshkian are aiming to get access to billions in frozen assets, indicating different priorities.

Brent fell by around $45 a barrel between the first and second quarters of this year, its largest quarterly ​loss since 2008 during the financial crisis in the US. Crude futures meanwhile fell by around $31, their largest quarterly loss since 2020, when ‌the COVID-19 ⁠pandemic crushed global oil demand.

The declines followed progress toward ending the Middle East conflict, pulling back from the sharp gains triggered earlier by the hostilities.

Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts after five straight monthly increases, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over ​prolonged supply disruptions.

Tanker traffic ​through the ⁠critical waterway has started to recover, with US Vice President JD Vance claiming that oil flows through the strait had been restored to pre-war levels.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 6.072 million barrels in the week ending June 26. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 765,000 barrels.

Official oil stock data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)will be released later on Wednesday.

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