Economy
Nigeria May See 4.4% GDP Growth, 17.1% Inflation in H2 2025—FSDH
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria may achieve an economic growth of 4.4 per cent and a moderate inflation of 17.1 per cent if crude oil production improves, analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank have projected.
In a report released last week, the firm in its Nigeria Macroeconomic Report for the First Half of 2025, offered critical insights into the global and domestic economic environment.
The report titled Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World dissected the complex interplay of global disruptions and Nigeria’s economic performance, while providing a forward-looking projection for the second half of 2025.
It said despite global trade tensions, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, and fragile capital flows, Nigeria showed signs of resilience, underpinned by expanding non-oil exports, moderating inflation, and improving investor sentiment.
“Nigeria has demonstrated encouraging signs of macroeconomic stability in the face of global headwinds. Our PMI data suggests an expanding economy, inflation is decelerating, and exchange rate reforms are strengthening market confidence. However, sustaining this progress requires deep structural reforms, especially in energy, trade, and fiscal management,” the chief executive of FSDH Merchant Bank, Mrs Bukola Smith, was quoted as saying in the note.
For the first half of the year, the report noted that Israel-Iran conflict and a renewed tariff war under US President Donald Trump have triggered global uncertainty, with the IMF cutting global growth projections, adding that oil price volatility and trade disruptions are shaping Nigeria’s external outlook.
It also noted that Nigeria’s inflation has moderated following a revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, inflation slowed from 24.5 per cent in January to 23 per cent in May 2025.
The firm also affirmed that exchange rate reforms were working.
“The Naira showed relative stability, trading within a narrower band. FX reforms and CBN’s transparency have restored investor confidence,” it said, adding that, “Though official GDP data is pending, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed above the 50-point threshold throughout H1, reflecting economic expansion across agriculture, industry, and services.”
It revealed that despite a decline in oil’s share of exports to 62.9 per cent (from 81 per cent in Q1 2024), crude oil production remains below budget benchmarks. This shortfall may affect fiscal performance unless addressed.
Other pointers include NGX All Share Index (NGX-ASI) which returned 16.6 per cent YTD, outperforming many global peers, while foreign portfolio investments surged to $5.03 billion in Q1 as well as the passage of four major tax laws in June, aiming to harmonize tax administration, increase compliance, and improve equity.
“These are expected to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10 per cent to 18 per cent in three years,” it said.
The report then projects that if oil production improves and inflation continues its downward trend in the current half of this year, Nigeria may achieve GDP growth of 4.4 per cent, inflation at 17.1 per cent, and external reserves of $44.3 billion, provided oil output and reforms align in a best-case scenario.
However, Nigeria must leverage current momentum to deepen economic diversification, accelerate reforms in the power and petroleum sectors, and maintain coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.
“Investor sentiment has begun to turn positive. Nigeria’s bond and T-bill markets are attracting renewed interest, and equity markets are gaining momentum.
“At FSDH, we understand that in times like this, clarity and partnership matter more than ever. While we can’t control global events or predict every market move, we remain committed to helping you navigate the complexity with perspective, precision, and purpose,” the Executive Director for Global Markets and Institutional Banking at FSDH, Mr Hakeem Muhammed, said.
The report also noted cautious optimism in the bond and NT-Bills market, as yields softened in response to improved macro indicators, while oil sector stocks on the NGX continued to underperform due to global crude price pressures.
“With the MPR at 27.5 per cent, prime lending rates currently exceed 30 per cent, but projected downward trends in H2 2025 offer a more favourable outlook for debt-funded expansion and capital investments,” added Mrs Stella-Marie Omogbai, Executive Director, Corporate Banking and Branches, FSDH Merchant Bank, “Interest rates are expected to ease due to projections on MPC rates dropping to at least 27 per cent, supported by fresh capital inflows in the banking industry and reduced inflation concerns.”
“FSDH, in partnership with DFIs, will continue to provide funding at competitive rates to help businesses grow,” she further stated.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Nigerian private sector in July 2026 contracted to 52.5 points from 53.4 points in June 2026, a statement made available to Business Post has shown.
This occurred despite the business environment sustaining its growth last month, with an increase in new orders experienced, as inflationary pressures softened, and output and employment modestly rising.
The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said the PMI indicated that the private sector recorded its slowest since March 2026, as businesses also increased their input purchasing activity to keep up with current demand requirements and prepare for future workloads.
“Nigerian businesses reported improved customer demand in July while better pricing and new product launches also helped them to capture new orders arising from the increase in demand. These factors helped to keep the private sector activity in an expansionary territory, although this moderated when compared to June,” he was quoted as saying.
It was stated that while input costs increased at their slowest pace in five months, panellists reported higher costs for fuel and raw materials. Selling prices also softened in line with the picture for input costs in July.
Headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91 per cent y/y in June from 15.93 per cent y/y in May, snapping three consecutive months of price increases.
Although July inflation is likely to be higher m/m, it is expected to print lower, likely at 15.72 per cent y/y, primarily driven by favourable base effects from the corresponding period of last year, because there are no expectations of the magnitude of m/m inflation witnessed in July 2025 (1.99 per cent) to materialise this year.
“We retain our 2026 growth forecasts at 4.1 per cent as we see the oil sector growing by 3.45 per cent y/y in 2026, from 8.50 per cent y/y in 2025, while the non-oil sector is likely to grow by 4.11 per cent y/y, from 3.71 per cent y/y in 2025.
“The risks to our outlook include country-wide insecurity which may constrain food production, exchange rate pressures resurfacing, extreme-weather related conditions and higher fertiliser prices impacting crop yield, and a volatile global environment which may affect sentiment and constrain capital flows,” Mr Oni noted.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Sahara Upstream, a Nigeria-focused crude producer, has deployed a new 380,000-barrel tanker to boost exports from the OML 18 block as part of a wider push by domestic operators to invest in infrastructure and lift output and exports for Africa’s biggest oil producer.
The MT D Adesanya, which can hold more than 62,000 cubic metres of crude, will operate alongside the MT D Bayero, receiving crude from shuttle vessels at Bonny Anchorage, one of Nigeria’s main crude export hubs, before transferring it to the FSO Cawthorne storage facility.
Sahara said the tanker would help cut turnaround times, currently about 30 to 48 hours, and support a planned 50 per cent increase in exports from the block’s current level of about 950,000 barrels per month.
The block currently produces about 36,000 barrels per day, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), with Sahara targeting output of 60,000 barrels per day.
OML 18 is one of the Niger Delta’s oldest producing assets. It began production in 1970 and contains an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves.
Shell, Total and Eni sold their combined interests to Eroton in 2015 as part of a broader shift toward domestic ownership in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
This development comes as Sahara Upstream is deepening its exploration and production footprint through Asharami Energy Limited (AEL), its upstream E&P business, which says it is targeting 350,000 barrels of oil per day by 2030 through its subsidiary, Enageed Resources Limited (ERL).
The growth target comes as AEL also marks a major safety milestone, achieving 6 million Lost Time Injury (LTI)-free man-hours in its OML-148 operations — reinforcing the company’s commitment to operational excellence and safety leadership.
According to Asharami Energy, the milestone reflects its ability to execute complex operations safely, in line with Sahara’s Beyond XXX vision, which builds on the group’s 30-year legacy of responsible enterprise while marking its next chapter of impact, innovation, and sustainable growth.
The developments position Sahara Upstream and its subsidiaries among the domestic operators driving increased investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure, as the group works to scale up production and exports for Africa’s biggest oil producer.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading energy firms in Nigeria, Aradel Holdings Plc, has expressed its desire to optimise its enlarged portfolio and improve operational efficiency in the second half of 2026.
The company is planning to build on the success it recorded in the first half of the year, where it grew its revenue by 577 per cent to N2.5 trillion from N368.1 billion in H1 2025.
The significant rise in earnings was driven by higher production volumes together with stronger realised crude oil and gas prices, with the average at $90.4/bbl and $2.08/mmscf, respectively.
In the period under review, the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) increased by 688 per cent to N1.4 trillion from N176.4 billion in the corresponding period of last year, while the operating profit surged by 789 per cent to N1.1 trillion from N118.6 billion due to higher revenue and crude handling income at N149.8 billion, partly offset by underlift cost and general and administrative costs.
The net cash generated from operations was N975.6 billion between January and June 2026 versus N140.8 billion in the same period of 2025, reflecting the cash generation of the enlarged organisation.
The net debt contracted by 70 per cent on a year-to-date basis to N46.5 billion from N475.1 billion as of December 31, 2025.
Aradel, in the period under consideration, improved its post-tax profit by 30 per cent to N191.0 billion from N146.4 billion, a development that impressed its chief executive, Mr Adegbite Falade, who said, “A firmer price environment supported performance, generating net cash from operating activities of N975.6 billion and a closing cash balance of N1.7 trillion.”
“Our enlarged portfolio provides more opportunities to generate stronger cash flow and returns for shareholders and unlocking that potential is our main focus.
“We reaffirm our full year production guidance of 110 – 140 kboepd and remain committed to operating responsibly in a changing energy landscape and to delivering lasting value for our stakeholders,” he stated.
