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Nigeria Ought to Rebase Economy 2017—NBS Boss

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Statistician-General of the Federation, Dr Yemi Kale, has disclosed that Nigeria was supposed to rebase its economy this year, but as things stand, such may never happen.

Dr Kale told Economic Confidential in an interview in Abuja that money was not released by the Federal Government to carry out this exercise.

He said in the interview that, “We are supposed to have to done it (rebase) this year, but no allocation to that effect.

“Every country does it maximum five years. The United States of America does it once a year. Those ones have more money, so they do it every year, apart from the fact that their economy is more dynamic.

“Technology is changing so many things so they have to upgrade all the time. If you don’t rebase your economy, it is like as if you are using Betamark system.

“When we rebased the economy, the politicians grabbed it because it favoured them. If it were in the negative, nobody will even talk about it.

“I was surprised to see at the election period that APC went to our website to retrieve all the positive figures and refused to accept the ones tagged negative.

“PDP too took all the positives and refused the poverty rate figures! Meanwhile all of them are NBS data.

“I have seen a Minister who agreed with chapter two of our report and said chapter three was not correct. While commending us for a job well done on chapter two, chapter three was tagged not correct; the same document!”

Speaking further on the economic, the renowned Economist said all things being equal, the Nigeria will get out of recession next year.

“If all prices do not collapse including Niger Delta crisis, by 2018 we would have recovered,” Dr Kale told Economic Confidential.

He said further, “It was an extremely difficult period and we all felt it. I will say that most of the indicators suggest that we are coming out of it.

“We have not come out of it yet. As if the worst has already happened and it’s a low process of recovery. Now there is what we call technical recovery as different from the recovery Nigerians would prefer.

“When you tell somebody, the economy is coming out of recession, they would say what do you mean. After all, prices are still high.

“Coming out of recession means positive growth. And your positive growth can be plus zero point one (+0.1). That does not mean everything is fine. It technically means you are no longer in negative again,” said Dr Kale.

He further posited that the fact that you are no longer in negative does not translate to be buoyant, stressing that there is going to be a gradual process of recovery as things are improving.

“At least all the indicators are suggesting things are getting better. People always make this mistake when we say inflation is slowing down. Slowing down of Inflation does not mean prices are coming down.

“Inflation by definition is always a rise in price. All we are saying is that increase is not as much as before. Before it went up by 100 percent, but this time it went up by 50 percent. Having double digit inflation figure is still huge and a problem.

The fact that it went down from 18 percent to 17 percent and now to 16 percent shows improvement. But I can tell you 16 percent is not good but a huge problem”, he said.

According to him, “If the trend continues, by the end of the year things should have normalized and by 2018 Nigerians would now see the benefit of the recovery.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Nigerian Stocks Close 1.13% Higher to Remain in Bulls’ Territory

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Nigerian Stocks1

By Dipo Olowookere

The local stock market firmed up by 1.13 per cent on Friday as appetite for Nigerian stocks remained strong.

Investors reacted well to the 2026 budget presentation of President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly yesterday, especially because of the more realistic crude oil benchmark of $64 per barrel compared with the ambitious $75 per barrel for 2025. This year, prices have been between $60 and $65 per barrel.

Business Post observed profit-taking in the commodity and energy sectors as they respectively shed 0.14 per cent and 0.03 per cent.

But, bargain-hunting in the others sustained the positive run, with the consumer goods index up by 3.82 per cent.

Further, the industrial goods space appreciated by 1.46 per cent, the banking counter improved by 0.08 per cent, and the insurance industry gained 0.04 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 1,694.33 points to 152,057.38 points from 150,363.05 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N1.080 trillion to finish at N96.937 trillion compared with Thursday’s closing value of N95.857 trillion.

A total of 34 shares ended on the advancers’ chart, while 24 were on the laggards’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.

Austin Laz gained 10.00 per cent to close at N2.42, Union Dicon also jumped 10.00 per cent to N6.60, Tantalizers increased by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, Aluminium Extrusion improved by 9.78 per cent to N12.35, and Champion Breweries grew by 9.71 per cent to N16.95.

Conversely, Sovereign Trust Insurance dipped by 7.42 per cent to N3.87, Royal Exchange lost 6.84 per cent to trade at N1.77, Omatek slipped by 6.84 per cent to N1.09, Eunisell depreciated by 5.88 per cent to N80.00, and Eterna dropped 5.63 per cent to close at N28.50.

Yesterday, traders transacted 1.5 billion units worth N21.8 billion in 25,667 deals compared with the 839.8 million units sold for N32.8 billion in 23,211 deals in the preceding session, showing a surge in the trading volume by 76.61 per cent, an uptick in the number of deals by 10.58 per cent, and a shrink in the trading value by 33.54 per cent.

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Economy

FrieslandCampina, Two Others Erase N26bn from NASD OTC Bourse

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Three stocks stretched the bearish run of the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.21 per cent on Friday, December 19, with the market capitalisation giving up N26.01 billion to close at N2.121 billion compared with the N2.147 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropping 43.47 points to 3,546.41 points from 3,589.88 points.

The trio of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, and NASD Plc overpowered the gains printed by four other securities.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N6.00 to sell at N54.00 per unit versus N60.00 per unit, NASD Plc shrank by N3.50 to N58.50 per share from N55.00 per share, and CSCS Plc depleted by N2.91 to N33.87 per unit from N36.78 per unit.

On the flip side, Air Liquide Plc gained N1.01 to close at N13.00 per share versus N11.99 per share, Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 70 Kobo to N7.68 per unit from N6.98 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc added 39 Kobo to sell at N5.50 per share versus N5.11 per share, and IPWA Plc rose by 8 Kobo to 85 Kobo per unit from 77 Kobo per unit.

During the trading day, market participants traded 1.9 million securities versus the previous day’s 30.5 million securities showing a decline of 49.3 per cent. The value of trades went down by 64.3 per cent to N80.3 million from N225.1 million, but the number of deals jumped by 32.1 per cent to 37 deals from 28 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc finished the session as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units traded for N4.9 billion.

The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was still InfraCredit Plc with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.

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Economy

Naira Crashes to N1,464/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market

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Official FX Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira at the two major foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday as it suffered a heavy loss against the United States Dollar at the close of transactions.

In the black market segment, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,485/$1, in contrast to the N1,475/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank forex counter, it depreciated by N2 to settle at N1,467/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,465/$1.

In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, which is also the official market, the nation’s legal tender crashed against the greenback by N6.65 or 0.46 per cent to close at N1,464.49/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,457.84/$1.

In the same vein, the local currency tumbled against the Euro in the spot market by N2.25 to sell for N1,714.63/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,712.38/€1, but appreciated against the Pound Sterling by 73 Kobo to finish at N1,957.30/£1 compared with the N1,958.03/£1 it was traded in the preceding session.

The market continues to face seasonal pressure even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is still conducting FX intervention sales, which have significantly reduced but not remove pressure from the Naira. Also, there seems to be reduced supply from exporters, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporate inflows.

President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented the government’s N58.47 trillion budget plan aimed at consolidating economic reforms and boosting growth.

The budget is based on a projected crude oil price of $64.85 a barrel and includes a target oil output of 1.84 million barrels a day. It also projects an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.

President Tinubu said inflation had plunged to an annual rate of 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, while foreign reserves had surged to a seven-year high of $47 billion.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by the bulls but it continues to face increased pressure after million in liquidations in previous session over accelerating declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) recovering 4.2 per cent to trade at $0.1309.

Further, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $1.90, Cardano (ADA) rose by 3.5 per cent to $0.3728, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.4 per cent to $126.23, Ethereum (ETH) climbed by 2.9 per cent to $2,982.42, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 2.0 per cent to sell for $853.06, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 1.7 per cent to $88,281.21, and Litecoin (LTC) soared by 1.2 per cent to $76.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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