Economy
Nigeria Rejects Moody’s Rating Downgrade
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Federal Government has strongly rejected the downgrading of Nigeria from a B1 stable to a B2 stable rating by Moody’s Investors Service Research.
In a statement dated Wednesday, November 8, 2017, the Nigerian authorities said the downgrade was not a true reflection of the current state of the country’s economy, which government said has improved.
“The attention of the Federal Ministry of Finance (FMF), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Debt Management Office (DMO) has been drawn to today’s announcement of the decision by Moody’s to downgrade Nigeria from a B1 stable to a B2 stable rating.
“This is equivalent to Nigeria’s existing B/Stable Outlook rating from S&P and slightly lower than Nigeria’s B+/Negative Outlook rating from Fitch.
“While we respect the right of Moody’s to make this decision, we strongly disagree with the premise and must address some of the conclusions upon which the decision rests,” the statement said.
It said further that, Since Nigeria was last rated by Moody’s (as B1 stable) in December 2016, Nigeria has successfully emerged from a protracted recession and recorded important improvements across a broad range of indices, including A return to economic growth of 0.55% in Q2 2017, and returning business confidence, as evidenced by a PMI index of 55.0; a stable foreign exchange window for importers and exporters, with improving liquidity and convergence of the parallel and official rates; significantly improved foreign exchange reserves, now totalling $34 billion; increased oil production, combined with stable and now improving oil prices; a slowly improving revenue profile, with non-oil revenue (principally taxes) up 10%; month on month improvements in inflation levels since January 2017, with inflation continuing to trend downwards; strong year on year improvement on the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings from 169th to 145th place, a 24 place move in one year; and in 2016, the highest capital expenditure deployment since 2013, making investments in critical infrastructure to support further growth.
“At the heart of Moody’s rationale is the need for Nigeria to improve non-oil revenue aggressively. This is absolutely and directly aligned to the government’s priorities. This is critical to our economic development and is the basis for the establishment of a stable and inclusive economy, which can withstand global shocks and has the resources to increase investments in our infrastructure.
“We have put in place a number of measures to improve our collection and FIRS has made good progress in increasing revenues, particularly when considering that the economy is still recovering from the oil price shock.
“Examples include introduction of a Tax Amnesty (the on-going Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS)), which is showing positive results; plugging leakages and deployment of technology driven revenue management strategies. An example is Health Pay, a pilot cashless revenue project in the health sector, which has recorded material increases in revenue.
“We have seen improvements in revenue in 2017. Fiscal revenues are linked directly to both the performance of the economy and the number of tax payers contributing. As a result of the foundation that has been established in 2017, we expect, similar positive trends in 2018.
“Our revenue initiatives are changing the mix of revenue sources available to government from the traditional oil or debt to a combination of oil, debt and domestic revenue. For example, the 2018 budget includes N710 billion proceeds from the restructuring of the Government’s equity in the JV oil assets. The reform is aimed at increasing private sector equity participation to improve efficiencies in the sector and also provides revenue to the government which will be deployed solely and exclusively for creating new assets in Nigeria.
“Moody’s highlights that while our debt levels remain low, interest is consuming a larger portion of revenue.
“It should be noted we are implementing a very prudent fiscal and debt management strategy to reduce the cost of our debt. Given the relatively higher domestic interest rates, we are focusing on longer term external borrowing with an aim to re-balance our domestic and international debt portfolio to a 60:40 split over the coming years.
“Our existing proposal to refinance $3 billion of treasury bills through external borrowing is expected to reduce Nigeria’s debt servicing costs, further improving our fiscal position.
“We also expect this strategy to help to reduce the ‘crowding out’ effect of government borrowing in the domestic markets.
“The challenges that are highlighted in the Moody’s rating are clear, and are being addressed by the government, with the environment having improved significantly since the last period of assessment.”
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria for March 2026 should further moderate to 13.59 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.06 per cent recorded in February 2026.
The company, in a note sighted by Business Post, explained that easing in the average prices of goods and services for last month would be impacted by a high base from the same period of 2025, but noted that on a month-on-month basis, the rate will spike.
Last month, energy prices soared after the price of crude oil on the global market soared as a result of the war in Iran, with prices of items growing in Nigeria.
“However, month-on-month pressures are likely to pick up, driven by the renewed increases in energy prices, which should nudge headline inflation higher.
“Core inflation is also likely to edge higher, reflecting second-round effects from higher transportation and production costs, although the relative stability of the Naira should help moderate the pace of increase.
“Food inflation is also expected to rise on a month-on-month basis, driven by higher logistics and distribution costs, as well as recent increases in staple food prices,” a part of the report noted.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers later today.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated marginally by 0.04 per cent to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, though on a month-on-month basis, inflationary pressures accelerated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s total public debt rose from N153.29 trillion at the end of September 2025 to N159.28 trillion in December 2025, according to the latest data released by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday.
The increase indicates a quarter-on-quarter increase of N5.98 trillion or 3.9 per cent.
The debt office noted that the December 2025 figures are provisional and were converted using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of N1,435.25/$, while the September 2025 figures were converted using N1,474.85/$.
On a year-on-year basis, the debt profile marked an increase of N14.61 trillion or 10.1 per cent, from N144.67 trillion in December 2024 to N159.28 trillion in December 2025, representing a rise from $94.23 billion to $110.97 billion, an increase of $16.75 billion, in Dollar terms.
Domestic debt remained the largest, rising from N81.82 trillion in September 2025 to N84.85 trillion in December 2025.
This represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of N3.03 trillion or 3.7 per cent compared to December 2024, when domestic debt stood at N74.38 trillion – the figure increased by N10.47 trillion or 14.1 per cent year-on-year.
In Dollar terms, domestic debt rose from $55.47 billion in September 2025 to $59.12 billion in December 2025, and from $48.44 billion in December 2024. This highlights a sustained reliance on the domestic market for financing.
The federal government accounted for the bulk of domestic debt at N80.49 trillion, representing 50.53 per cent of total public debt, while states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) accounted for N4.36 trillion.
Nigeria’s external debt stood at N74.43 trillion as of December 2025, representing 46.73 per cent of total public debt.
This reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of N2.95 trillion from N71.48 trillion in September 2025, and a year-on-year increase of N4.14 trillion from N70.29 trillion recorded in December 2024.
In Dollar terms, external debt rose from $48.46 billion in September 2025 to $51.86 billion in December 2025, and from $45.78 billion in December 2024.
The federal government continued to dominate external borrowing, accounting for N66.27 trillion of the total external debt, while states and the FCT accounted for N8.16 trillion.
However, the structure of Nigeria’s debt portfolio remained broadly stable despite the increase in overall debt.
While domestic debt accounted for 53.27 per cent of total debt in December 2025, compared to 53.37 per cent in September 2025 and 51.41 per cent in December 2024, external debt stood at 46.73 per cent in December 2025, compared to 46.63 per cent in September 2025 and 48.59 per cent a year earlier.
By Dipo Olowookere
The volume of premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, consumed daily in Nigeria stood at 47.3 million litres in March 2026 compared with the 56.9 million litres recorded in February 2026.
This information was revealed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in its latest factsheet.
The decline in daily petrol consumption in Nigeria coincided with a hike in the price of the product, triggered by a rise in global crude oil prices as a result of the Middle East crisis.
The United States and Israel launched airstrikes in Iran in late February, with crude oil rising above $100 per barrel and even above $110 per barrel at one point.
The price is currently below $100 per barrel on the global market after the President of the United States, Mr Donald Trump, signalled his intention to negotiate with Iran amid the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Data by NMDPRA also showed that diesel consumption eased to 14.5 million litres per day from the previous month’s 20.3 million litres per day, while aviation fuel stood at 2.1 million litres per day versus 2.9 million litres per day in February 2026.
It was also disclosed that PMS daily supply for the month under review increased to 40.1 million litres per day from the preceding month’s 39.5 million litres per day.
From this, domestic supply came down by 6.30 per cent to 34.2 million litres per day from 36.5 million litres per day, while imported petrol stood at 5.9 million litres per day versus 3.0 million litres per day a month earlier.
Business Post observed that Dangote Refinery supplied about 34.2 million litres per day of PMS into the Nigerian market from the 48.2 million litres per day it produced. The private refiner produced 16.5 million litres of diesel per day in March 2026, supplying 2.2 million litres per day into the domestic market.
In the period, the Warri and Kaduna refineries were totally shut down, while the Port Harcourt refinery, according to the report, though it was shut down, witnessed the evacuation of about 0.048 million litres of diesel per day while it was operational.
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