Economy
Nigeria Targets 1.5 Billion Barrels from 2024 Licensing Round
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has disclosed that the 2024 oil licensing round is expected to yield as much as 1.5 billion barrels in oil output for Nigeria within the next 10 years.
The Executive Commissioner, Exploration and Acreage Management (E&M) of the commission, Mr Bashir Indabawa, stated this in a special edition of the NUPRC’s magazine to mark the 4th anniversary since its establishment.
Mr Indabawa stated that the E&AM department in the last four years has recorded several significant milestones in assessing the hydrocarbon potential of Nigeria’s sedimentary basins, building on the regulatory foundation for the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
He said the commission expanded geoscience data coverage by facilitating the acquisition, processing and reprocessing of large volumes of 2D and 3D seismic data across both the onshore and offshore basins and advancing Nigeria’s multi-client projects.
This, he said, was done in partnership with local and international geophysical companies, to de-risk exploration and attract investments.
The NUPRC in 2024 opened an ambitious upstream licensing round aimed at revitalising Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. At launch the regulator invited bids for 12 new blocks onshore, continental shelf and deep offshore, alongside seven deep-offshore blocks carried over from the 2022/23 mini-bid round, bringing the initial package to 19 blocks.
However, following acquisition of additional subsurface data and a review of acreage, the NUPRC added 17 more deep offshore blocks while withdrawing five blocks under litigation (PPL 3008, 3009, PML 51, PPL 267, PPL 268), resulting in a revised total of 24 to 31 blocks on offer depending on counting method.
While implementing the Drill or Drop provisions of the PIA to reduce the number of inactive or underperforming licenses through monitoring and enforcement, Indabawa stated that about 400 fields were identified as fallow or inactive.
“Four companies from the 2020 Marginal Field Licensing Rounds have applied for conversion to Petroleum Mining Licence (PML) and added about 80MMbbl of oil reserve. In total, we are expecting the recently concluded 2024 Licensing Rounds to add between 500 million to 1.5 billion barrels of oil within the next five to 10 years,” the executive commissioner stated.
He acknowledged that while big players remain cautious due to geological risk, security, and energy transition dynamics, this encouraged indigenous operators to take the lead, adding that this set the stage for broader participation once more discoveries and infrastructure are established.
“Exploration activity has picked up since the 2023 decline. The NUPRC achieved this by enforcing acreage work obligations, fast-tracking Field Development Plans (FDPs), launching bid rounds, improving data access and deploying the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF).
“The result is a number of seismic surveys, exploration wells and approved projects, which are expected to stabilise and grow Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves in the medium term. The 2023 regulations have brought structure, funding and transparency to frontier exploration.
“Early wins include stronger data coverage, improved industry participation (especially indigenous) and proof-of-concept developments like Kolmani. However, sustained success will depend on addressing security, infrastructure and energy transition dynamics to fully unlock Nigeria’s frontier hydrocarbon potential.
“The passage of the regulation has brought about a resurgence of exploration activities by the NNPC- Enserv to acquire geological, geochemical and geophysical data in the frontier basins.
“This is a key element of de-risking these basins to enable hydrocarbon discovery and exploitation. Kolmani exploration phase has been concluded and is now in the FDP phase.
“Re-entering the Chad basin through Wadi wells drilling campaign and the ongoing drilling effort in the lower Benue trough via the drilling of Ebenyi-01 well in Obi LGA of Nasarawa State are testimonies of renewed exploration activities brought about by the passage of the regulation,” he stated.
According to him, the recent bid rounds have helped unlock reserves from dormant marginal fields and open blocks by reallocating them to new operators with technical and financial capacity.
Economy
BudgIT Urges Transparency as FG Defers 70% of 2025 Capital Projects to 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
BudgIT, a leading civic-tech organisation promoting transparency and accountability in Nigeria’s public finance, has called on the federal government to be transparent after it deferred the implementation of 70 per cent of capital projects initially appropriated in the 2025 fiscal year to 2026.
“From our analysis, while this development is not entirely surprising, we hold cautious reservations about the implications of this decision,” it said in a statement.
The group said the deferment suggests the federal government intends to limit the number of capital projects under implementation, to use available funds more efficiently, prioritise critical projects, and reduce the long-standing problem of abandoned projects.
“In this sense, the move appears to be an attempt to retain the 2025 capital projects—many of which are based on existing economic plans and strategies—rather than introduce an entirely new set of projects in the next fiscal year.
“We view this as an effort by the federal government to restructure the sequencing of capital project implementation. Rather than rolling out a fresh budget filled with new capital projects, the government appears to be attempting a reset by carrying forward existing projects and improving implementation discipline,” it said.
BudgIT said this approach, if properly managed, could help salvage a challenging fiscal situation and strengthen budget credibility.
Recall that BudgIT has consistently raised concerns about Nigeria’s budgeting process, particularly the government’s failure to adhere to the approved budget calendar and its practice of running multiple fiscal programmes concurrently.
“We have maintained that budget timelines must be treated as sacrosanct and that unfinished but still relevant projects should be consolidated through a supplementary budget passed within the same fiscal year, rather than endlessly rolled over,” it said.
“Consequently, the continued inclusion of numerous uncoordinated and low-priority projects has bloated federal capital expenditure and increased public debt, often without clear developmental value.
“This pattern weakens the impact of capital investment, as spending decisions increasingly appear driven by project insertions rather than sound planning, prioritisation, and fiscal discipline. This is compounded by the fact that the federal government does not publish disaggregated reports on capital expenditure implementation. So, citizens are at a loss in knowing precisely what has or has not been implemented,” the statement added.
This challenge, it said, is further illustrated by developments during the 2024 fiscal year, in which the federal government extended the implementation of capital expenditure components of both the 2024 Appropriation Act and the 2024 supplementary Appropriation Act into mid-2025, and subsequently to December 2025.
“As a result, although the 2025 Appropriation Act was duly passed and assented to, it appears that only its recurrent components—such as personnel and overhead costs—were implemented in 2025. This is further evidenced by the absence of federal budget implementation reports for the 2025 period and official statements indicating that revenues from the 2025 fiscal year were used to fund the implementation of the 2024 budget.”
It revealed that it remains unclear whether the 2024 fiscal year has been formally closed.
“The recently published Q4 2024 federal budget implementation report is explicitly described as “provisional,” raising concerns about proper fiscal closure. Formal closure of fiscal accounts is essential, as failure to do so undermines financial reporting, fiscal transparency, and consolidation standards.”
In light of these, BudgIT stressed that this decision to defer capital project implementation must be robustly defended during the upcoming budget defence sessions at the National Assembly.
“The Executive arm of government must clearly demonstrate to the Legislature that this action is necessary to restore order to Nigeria’s fiscal framework and to end the damaging practice of implementing multiple budgets concurrently. By the time the annual Appropriation Act is passed by the National Assembly and transmitted for presidential assent, it is often heavily bloated with additional projects. While the National Assembly’s power to increase or decrease the budget is constitutionally recognised, BudgIT has long argued that this power has been widely abused, often disregarding fiscal planning and national development priorities.”
Commenting, BudgIT’s Deputy Country Director, Mr Vahyala Kwaga, underscored the need for discipline and clarity in implementing the deferment.
“Deferring 70 per cent of capital projects is neither a solution nor a setback on its own. What matters is whether this decision marks a clear break from the cycle of bloated budgets, overlapping fiscal years, and weak project implementation. Without strict adherence to budget timelines, proper fiscal closure, and transparent payment processes, the risk is that we simply postpone inefficiencies rather than resolve them,” Mr Kwaga said.
In addition, BudgIT urged the federal government to fully adhere to its “Bottom-Up Cash Plan” as outlined by the Federal Ministry of Finance.
“This approach—where payments are made directly to verified contractors rather than routed through MDAs—has the potential to improve efficiency and accountability in capital project implementation. The government must ensure strict compliance with payment protocols, contractor verification processes, and timely disbursement of funds.
“To this end, we call on the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, the Budget Office of the Federation, the Bureau of Public Procurement, relevant MDAs, and the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to uphold the principles of transparency, legal compliance, and accountability in the management of public funds and public projects.
“We also encourage citizens, civil society, the private sector, and the media to actively support and scrutinise capital expenditure implementation, as the benefits of effective public spending ultimately accrue to all Nigerians.”
Economy
SEC Authorises Extension of The Initiates N1.3bn Rights Issue
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The N1.3 billion rights issue of The Initiates, which commenced on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, has been extended.
The exercise, which is on the basis of one new ordinary share for every existing five ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Friday, August 1, 2025, was scheduled to close on Friday, December 12, 2025.
However, the period of the rights issue has been stretched by an addition month, leaving the new closing date at Monday, January 12, 2026.
This extension was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the highest regulatory agency for the Nigerian capital market.
The Initiates, which operates as an environmental and waste management organisation, is offering in the rights issue a total of 177,996,310 units of its stocks to existing shareholders at a unit price of N7.00.
Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases for Eighth Straight Month to 14.45% in November
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased for the eighth consecutive month in November as it printed 14.45 per cent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.22 per cent, which was 0.29 per cent higher than the 0.93 per cent recorded in October 2025.
Consumer inflation peaked at 34 per cent last December before dropping after the stats office revised its base year from 2009 to 2024 and adjusted the weight of items in its price basket.
On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.13 per cent, up by 1.5 per cent from the -0.37 per cent achieved in the preceding month. The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of tomatoes (dried), cassava tuber, periwinkle (shelled), grounded pepper, eggs, crayfish, melon (egusi) unshelled, oxtail, and onions (fresh), among others.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending November 2025 over the previous 12 months’ average was 19.68 per cent, which was 18.99 per cent points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2024 at 38.67 per cent.
For the urban inflation rate, it stood at 13.61 per cent versus 23.49 per cent in the previous month and compared with the 37.10 per cent recorded in November 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 0.95 per cent in the review month, down by 0.18 per cent from the 1.14 per cent in October 2025. The corresponding 12-month average for the urban inflation rate was 20.80 per cent in November 2025, which was 14.27 per cent lower than the 35.07 per cent reported in November 2024.
The rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 15.15 per cent on a year-on-year basis, standing 17.12 per cent lower than the 32.27 per cent recorded in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.88 per cent, up by 1.43 per cent when compared with the 0.45 per cent achieved in October 2025. The corresponding 12-month average for the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 19.46 per cent. This was 11.24 per cent lower than the 30.71 per cent recorded in November 2024.
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