By Adedapo Adesanya

Credit rating agency, Fitch, has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, while projecting depreciation for the Naira in the near term.

The decision underscores the country’s large economy, relatively developed and liquid domestic debt market, substantial oil and gas reserves, and ongoing improvements in monetary and exchange-rate policies.

This comes as the firm expects the country’s external reserves to decline marginally to $47 billion by the end of this year, while inflation is projected to hover around an average of 16 per cent.

The rating agency in its latest report on Nigeria said the rating is constrained by weak governance indicators, high hydrocarbon dependence, high inflation, security challenges and structurally low revenue relative to peers.

Fitch while stating that expects disinflation trend to continue said the risks however remain, “Inflation has moderated since April 2025 supported by policy reforms, but remains structurally high, at 15 per cent year-on-year in February 2026,” adding that, “We expect inflation to average about 16 per cent in 2026, from 23 per cent in 2024, but to remain well above the ‘B’ median of 5.5 per cent.”

Fitch also said that recent measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), including the removal of forex restrictions on the repatriation of oil export proceeds by international oil companies, should support further forex market normalisation, improve confidence and support relative naira stability after a 40 per cent depreciation in 2024.

It also noted that it expects “modest depreciation in the near term amid rising fiscal pressures and heightened external risks, while data quality concerns continue to weigh on policy credibility.”

“The CBN began easing monetary policy in September 2025, cutting the policy rate twice by a total of 100bp to 26.5 per cent after an extended tightening cycle. However, a looser fiscal stance ahead of the general election scheduled in January 2027 or further fuel price increases could reverse disinflation and prompt renewed monetary tightening.”

Noting that external reserves are expected to remain strong, it said gross reserves rose to $49.4 billion at end-March 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024, and “we forecast a marginal decline to $47 billion at end-2026, reflecting higher spending pressures and external risks.

“However, we expect reserves to cover seven months of current external payments (CXP), well above the ‘B’ median of 4.3 months,” it said.

“Official disclosure on the composition of the CBN foreign-currency balance sheet remains limited, but the CBN has made substantial progress in unwinding foreign exchange swaps with local banks.

It estimates net reserves at $35 billion at end-2025 (5.5 months of CXP), up from about $4 billion at end-2023.

By Adedapo Adesanya

The first trading session of the week at the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended on a positive note, with a 0.22 per cent gain on Monday, April 13.

This expansion was buoyed by the gains recorded by two securities, which offset the losses posted by three other securities.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N7.83 to trade at N99.89 per share compared with the previous N92.00 per share, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc advanced by 5 Kobo to sell at 62 Kobo per unit versus last Friday’s 57 Kobo per unit.

On the flip side, 11 Plc declined yesterday by N21.30 to N201.00 per share from N222.30 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) lost 46 Kobo to trade at N63.04 per unit compared with the preceding session’s price of N63.50 per unit, and UBN Property Plc decreased by 20 Kobo to N1,98 per share from N2.18 per share.

At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the platform went up by N5.01 billion to N2.320 trillion from N2.315 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) grew by 8.38 points to 3,878.83 points from 3,870.45 points.

During the session, there was a 1,267.4 per cent jump in the volume of securities traded by investors to 2.6 million units from 188,593 units. The value of securities rose by 21.2 per cent to N31.2 million from N25.7 million, and the number of deals increased by 42.31 per cent to 37 deals from 26 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 57.6 million units exchanged for N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.6 million units traded at N1.8 billion.

GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

In March 2026, Nigeria became a net exporter of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals exporting 44,000 barrels per day (b/d) of the product.

This allowed the country to earn fresh foreign exchange (FX) to help boost the value of the Nigerian Naira in the currency market, which, in turn, will strengthen the economy.

In a statement on Monday, Dangote Refinery said it exported gasoline to East Africa for the first time, delivering a 317,000‑barrel cargo to Mozambique. The shipment reflects growing regional demand as East African buyers diversify supply sources away from the Middle East Gulf amid ongoing supply disruptions. A further gasoline cargo from the refinery is scheduled for delivery to Beira, Mozambique, in April.

Before now, Nigeria relied heavily on imported refined petroleum products from across the world, but this seems to be changing, especially at this time, the globe is experiencing supply disruptions due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

The March export milestone underscores Nigeria’s accelerating progress toward self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products and strengthens its ambition to become a competitive supplier in the global downstream energy market.

Data from market intelligence firm Kpler showed that Nigeria’s gasoline imports fell sharply to 41,000 b/d in March, the lowest level ever recorded. At the same time, crude oil supply to the Dangote facility climbed to approximately 565,000 b/d, the second-highest intake since the 650,000 b/d-capacity refinery began operations in late 2023. The figures point to strong processing rates and rising product yields across the complex.