Economy
Nigeria to Witness Economic Crisis, High Fiscal Deficits—Fitch
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s decision to take off 417,000 barrels per day from its crude oil production quota will lead to deeper economic contraction and higher fiscal deficits, says Fitch Ratings.
The rating agency also added that the decision will further compound pressures on the country’s external finances resulting from the slump in oil prices, the nation’s main source of foreign earnings.
In a statement released on Monday, the credit rating company noted that Nigeria’s adherence to oil production cuts under the agreement signed in April by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) will affect growth and external finances this year.
“We assume that Nigeria will comply fully with the production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, and have reduced our forecast oil output to 1.88 million barrels per day (mbpd, including condensates) in 2020 and 1.87 mbpd in 2021, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1 mbpd for both years,” it said.
The agency also added that it had adjusted Nigeria’s gross domestic product forecast for the year, expecting a slump of 3 percent which should recover in 2021.
“We have adjusted our GDP forecasts, and now expect Nigeria’s economy to contract by 3 percent in 2020, before a recovery to 3 percent growth in 2021,” it stated.
Fitch said that it expects Nigeria’s increased recourse to concessional multilateral loans to ease near-term liquidity pressures, but the risk of a disruptive macroeconomic adjustment will persist.
Nigeria had requested for loans from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the African Development Bank amounting to $5.4 billion.
It said that despite the OPEC+ deal, its oil price forecasts remain unchanged, at $35 per barrel for Brent on average in 2020 and projected a $45 per barrel increase in 2021.
Fitch said that Nigeria’s foreign-currency reserves had dropped by $5 billion over the first four months of the year despite only limited depreciation in the Naira’s key exchange rates.
It said, “This reflects moves by the CBN to tighten foreign-currency access. This has contained capital outflows temporarily, although the build-up of pent-up foreign-currency demand may increase the risk of a disruptive future exchange-rate adjustment.
“We expect outflows to materialise later in the year, which, alongside a significant current-account deficit and continued CBN resistance to overhauling the exchange-rate framework, will drive a fall in international reserves from $38.6 billion at end-2019 to $23.3 billion at end-2020.”
It further said the contraction in exports and remittance inflows means the current account will remain in deficit, despite a sharp drop in imports.
“We project the current account, which had been in surplus for much of the last 20 years, to record a deficit equivalent to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021.
“External liquidity pressures will be aggravated by outflows of foreign portfolio investment.” It stated.
Fitch highlighted an intensification of external liquidity pressures as a negative rating sensitivity when it downgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating in April, to ‘B’ with a Negative Outlook from ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.
Nevertheless, greater recourse to multilateral borrowing will help to ease the strain Nigeria faces on this front which according to Fitch, if secured, would cover around 21 percent of the general government deficit in 2020.
Economy
Nigeria Loses N1.493trn Potential Revenue to Gas Flaring in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria lost $1.1 billion (N1.493 trillion) to gas flaring in 2025, as oil and gas companies operating in the country burnt 323 billion Standard Cubic Feet (SCF) of gas between January and December 2025.
This is according to the latest data released by the National Oil Spill Detection and Remediation Agency (NOSDRA).
The agency, in its gas flare report for 2025, released recently, disclosed that the volume of gas flared in 2025 was 7.2 per cent higher than the 301.3 billion SCF (BSCF) of gas flared in 2024, which was also valued at $1.1 billion, about N1.493 billion.
The environmental impact regulator further stated that the volume of gas flared in the 12-month period of 2025 contributed 17.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere; had the potential to generate 32,300 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity; while the offending companies were liable for penalties payment of $646.1 million, about N876.622 billion.
NOSDRA maintained that in the 12-month period of 2024, the 301.3 billion SCF of gas flared by oil and gas firms was valued at $1.1 billion, about N1.493 trillion, with penalties payable at $602.7 million, about N818.271 billion, while it contributed 16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, and had power generation potential of 30,100 GWh.
Providing a breakdown of gas flared data across segments of the oil-producing space in 2025, the agency reported that 206.3 billion SCF of gas was flared by oil and gas firms operating in the country’s onshore oil space, accounting for 63.8 per cent of total gas flared in the period under review, and was 18.36 per cent higher than the volume lost to gas flaring in this same segment in 2024.
NOSDRA added that the volume of gas flared onshore caused the country a loss of 20,600 GWh of electricity, and the emission of 11 million tonnes of greenhouse gases; this was valued at $722 million, about N979.754 billion; while the companies were liable to pay penalties of $412.6 million, about N560.441 billion.
In comparison, the 174.3 billion SCF of gas flared in 2024 by companies operating onshore was valued at $610 million, about N827.77 billion; with penalties payable at $348.6 million, about N473.593 billion; caused the loss of power generation potential of 17,400 GWh; and contributed 9.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
On the other hand, companies operating offshore accounted for 36.2 per cent of total gas flared between January and December 2025, with 116.8 billion SCF of gas, valued at $408.7 million (N555.013 billion); penalties payable at $233.5 million (N317.538 billion); contributed 6.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emission; and eroded 11,700 GWh of electricity generation potential.
Similarly, in the same 12-month period in 2024, offshore operations emitted 6.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, causing the loss of power generation capacity of 12,700 GWh, with 127.1 billion SCF of gas flared, valued at $444.7 million (N603.865 billion), and penalties payable at $254.1 million (N344.678 billion).
NOSDRA noted that the offending companies flared gas from Oil Mining Leases (OML) 04, 05, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 22, 28, 23, 24, 38, 40, 42, 43, 72, 49, 54, 86, 90, 95, 67, 70, 104, 59, 99, 100, 101, 102, 110 and Oil Prospecting Licences (OPL) 090, 209, 212, 216, 222, 246, 316 and 306, among others.
It identified the offending companies as Shell Petroleum, Development Company (SPDC), Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Chevron Nigeria, Mobil Oil, Elf Petroleum Nigeria, Nigeria Agip Oil Company (NAOC), Addax Petroleum, Texaco Overseas (Nigeria), Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria, Allied Energy Resources, Ultramar Petroleum, Atlas Petroleum; Cromwell, Afric Oil and Marketing, Famfa Oil, Moni Pulo, and South Atlantic Petroleum, Star Deep Water, Summit Oil, among others.
Economy
NUPRC Allocates 61.9 million Barrels of Crude Oil to Dangote, Others
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
About 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries, including Dangote Petroleum Refinery, in the first quarter of 2026.
This information was revealed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in a statement by its Head of Media and Corporate Communication, Mr Eniola Akinkuotu, on Tuesday.
In the statistics on the enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) for the quarter under review, it was emphasised that producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels, but actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 per cent between January 2026 and March 2026.
A breakdown of the DCSO month by month reveals that in the month of January, following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers, the commission mandated producers to supply 22.6 million barrels to the local refiners.
Producers exceeded expectations, offering 25.3 million barrels, representing a rise of 11.9 per cent, or an additional 2.7 million barrels, in the month. However, 9.2 million barrels were ultimately supplied to local refiners.
In February, the agency, in discharging its DCSO, allocated 20.5 million barrels to local refineries, but producers offered slightly less at 19.8 million barrels, missing the target by 700,000 barrels. Actual supply was down at 9.1 million barrels.
In March, there was a modest improvement in deliveries, which rose to 10.1 million barrels, up from 9.2 million barrels in January and 9.1 million barrels in February. During the same period, DCSO allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers offered a significantly higher 23.6 million barrels, representing an excess of 4.8 million barrels or 25.5 per cent.
It was stated that the shortfall between volumes offered and actual deliveries was primarily due to pricing gaps between producers and domestic refiners.
According to NUPRC, the current framework operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which continues to shape transaction outcomes.
Despite these developments, the commission reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency.
“Leveraging the framework of the PIA, 2021, the commission aims to sustain recent gains in crude oil production while continuously refining the DCSO methodology to enhance transparency, efficiency, and ensure that local refineries are supplied as committed,” the statement said.
Economy
Nigeria Must Shift From Stabilisation to Growth Acceleration—Wale Edun
Nigeria’s economy is entering a critical phase, moving from stabilisation into what the Federal Government describes as ‘growth acceleration’, according to the former Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, during his keynote delivery at the Nigeria Business Summit convened by Stanbic IBTC.
In his keynote address, Edun said recent macroeconomic reforms had begun to stabilise the economy but cautioned that current growth levels remain inadequate to deliver broad‑based prosperity.
“For nearly a decade, our GDP averaged around two per cent,” Edun said. “We have now moved into a new phase where growth is closer to four per cent, supported by macroeconomic reforms. This is an important improvement, but it is still below the level required to move Nigerians out of poverty in their millions.”
Reforms have strengthened resilience
Edun noted that Nigeria is navigating a renewed global economic shock at a sensitive point in its reform journey. However, he argued that the effects have been softened by reforms introduced since May 2023.
“These shocks would have been far more severe without the comprehensive reforms that have been put in place,” he said, citing stronger external reserves, improved non‑oil revenue performance, and returning investor confidence across domestic and foreign markets.
According to the former Minister, Nigeria is now better positioned to absorb shocks “through price adjustments, investment reallocation, and expanded trade opportunities across Africa and globally”, creating a more predictable environment for business planning and capital deployment.
Enterprises across the value chain must drive inclusive growth
The central theme of the address was the role of enterprises across the value chain in driving inclusive growth. While Edun described small and medium‑scale enterprises (SMEs) as the backbone of the economy, accounting for over 90 per cent of businesses and the majority of employment, he also highlighted the importance of large corporates in building productive and resilient ecosystems.
“Their growth is central to inclusive development,” he said of SMEs. “If we want growth that creates jobs and reduces poverty, then SMEs must be supported deliberately.”
He stressed that this support must translate into practical outcomes, including access to appropriate financing, improved processes, and stronger integration into value chains. For large organisations, he noted, scaling productive capacity and strengthening supplier networks is equally critical.
Productivity and trade as growth enablers
Edun highlighted the National Single Window Initiative as a reform focused on execution and productivity. “Government revenue will increase, not because of higher charges, but because of increased volumes through productivity,” he said.
He emphasised that Nigeria’s long‑term growth will depend on its ability to compete beyond its borders, noting that trade will remain a key driver of diversification and foreign exchange earnings.
“Our true potential does not lie only in our large domestic market,” Edun said. “It lies in becoming a leading exporting economy.”
Partnership and shared responsibility
The former Minister was clear that the government cannot deliver transformation alone.
“Government cannot drive transformation alone,” Edun said. “Its role is to maintain stability, implement predictable policies, and remove structural and bureaucratic constraints to investment.”
Achieving Nigeria’s ambition of building a one‑trillion‑Dollar economy, he added, will require collaboration between government, large corporates, financial institutions, and SMEs.
In closing, Edun delivered a clear signal to investors and businesses.
“Nigeria is open for business. Nigeria is ready for investment, and Nigeria is committed to building an economy that works for all and delivers shared prosperity.”
As discussions continue at the summit, the message is clear. The next phase of growth will favour businesses that are well‑structured, productive, and positioned to scale. Stanbic IBTC continues to support SMEs and large corporates across key sectors, providing financing, advisory, transaction banking, and trade solutions aligned to different stages of business growth.
Businesses seeking to scale operations, strengthen value chains, or expand into regional and global markets are encouraged to engage with Stanbic IBTC to explore solutions aligned with their growth ambitions.
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