Economy
Nigeria to Witness Economic Crisis, High Fiscal Deficits—Fitch
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s decision to take off 417,000 barrels per day from its crude oil production quota will lead to deeper economic contraction and higher fiscal deficits, says Fitch Ratings.
The rating agency also added that the decision will further compound pressures on the country’s external finances resulting from the slump in oil prices, the nation’s main source of foreign earnings.
In a statement released on Monday, the credit rating company noted that Nigeria’s adherence to oil production cuts under the agreement signed in April by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) will affect growth and external finances this year.
“We assume that Nigeria will comply fully with the production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, and have reduced our forecast oil output to 1.88 million barrels per day (mbpd, including condensates) in 2020 and 1.87 mbpd in 2021, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1 mbpd for both years,” it said.
The agency also added that it had adjusted Nigeria’s gross domestic product forecast for the year, expecting a slump of 3 percent which should recover in 2021.
“We have adjusted our GDP forecasts, and now expect Nigeria’s economy to contract by 3 percent in 2020, before a recovery to 3 percent growth in 2021,” it stated.
Fitch said that it expects Nigeria’s increased recourse to concessional multilateral loans to ease near-term liquidity pressures, but the risk of a disruptive macroeconomic adjustment will persist.
Nigeria had requested for loans from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the African Development Bank amounting to $5.4 billion.
It said that despite the OPEC+ deal, its oil price forecasts remain unchanged, at $35 per barrel for Brent on average in 2020 and projected a $45 per barrel increase in 2021.
Fitch said that Nigeria’s foreign-currency reserves had dropped by $5 billion over the first four months of the year despite only limited depreciation in the Naira’s key exchange rates.
It said, “This reflects moves by the CBN to tighten foreign-currency access. This has contained capital outflows temporarily, although the build-up of pent-up foreign-currency demand may increase the risk of a disruptive future exchange-rate adjustment.
“We expect outflows to materialise later in the year, which, alongside a significant current-account deficit and continued CBN resistance to overhauling the exchange-rate framework, will drive a fall in international reserves from $38.6 billion at end-2019 to $23.3 billion at end-2020.”
It further said the contraction in exports and remittance inflows means the current account will remain in deficit, despite a sharp drop in imports.
“We project the current account, which had been in surplus for much of the last 20 years, to record a deficit equivalent to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021.
“External liquidity pressures will be aggravated by outflows of foreign portfolio investment.” It stated.
Fitch highlighted an intensification of external liquidity pressures as a negative rating sensitivity when it downgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating in April, to ‘B’ with a Negative Outlook from ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.
Nevertheless, greater recourse to multilateral borrowing will help to ease the strain Nigeria faces on this front which according to Fitch, if secured, would cover around 21 percent of the general government deficit in 2020.
Economy
Strong Competitive Position Earns Fidson Healthcare Rating Upgrade
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The national scale long-term issuer rating of Fidson Healthcare Plc has been upgraded to A+(NG) from A(NG), with its short-term issuer ratings of A1(NG) affirmed.
This action was taken by GCR Ratings, which also accorded the leading healthcare organisation in Nigeria with a stable outlook in a statement obtained by Business Post.
It was explained that the company achieved this latest development amid its strong competitive position and improved financial profile.
GCR said Fidson Healthcare’s debt metrics remain moderate, bolstered by a successful N21 billion rights issue expected in Q2 2026 and robust cash flows that support strong liquidity, though large expansionary investments and heightened working capital requirements slightly constrain the rating.
Fidson is a prominent pharmaceutical manufacturer in Nigeria, with over 350 products registered with the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC). Its product portfolio encompasses a wide range of therapeutic categories, including antibiotics, infusion products, over-the-counter products, and lifestyle healthcare solutions.
The company is enhancing its market position through ongoing investments in manufacturing capacity, product innovation, automation, and operational efficiency.
The firm operates through an extensive network of over 120 distributors across Nigeria, ensuring strong retail visibility and market penetration.
To further strengthen its competitive position, the company is investing in a greenfield automated manufacturing facility, additional infusion lines, and expanded tablet lines, all expected to become operational in the near term. This capital expenditure will significantly increase productive capacity, improve operational efficiency, and enhance export competitiveness in the medium term.
In terms of its liquidity assessment, its 12-month sources versus uses coverage at 1.6x and 24-month coverage at 1.4x, supported by access to diverse funding sources.
Estimated liquidity sources include forecasted operating cash flow of N15.1 billion, cash holdings of N4.7 billion, inventory valued at approximately N17.5 billion, and cash of N21 billion from the equity raise. These resources are sufficient to cover anticipated near-maturing debt obligations of N23.4 billion and forecast medium-term capital spending of around N20 billion, as well as a dividend payout of N3.7 billion in 2026.
Economy
Esiet Promises Open-door Policy at Customs Eastern Marine Command
By Bon Peters
The new acting Comptroller of the Eastern Marine Command of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Mr Esien Etim Esiet, a Deputy Comptroller of Customs, has promised to maintain an open-door policy with stakeholders, including licensed agents and partners.
He gave this assurance when he officially assumed leadership of the command on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, according to a statement issued by the command’s spokesman, Mr Joshua Iliya, a Deputy Superintendent of Customs (DSC), in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
In a proactive move to strengthen maritime security and trade facilitation, he immediately initiated an extensive tour of operational facilities and high-level engagements across the region, including Rivers (Abonnema and Onne Outstations), Akwa Ibom (Oron Outstation), and Cross River (Calabar Outstation) States.
During the visitations, Mr Esiet conducted rigorous inspections of equipment and personnel readiness, emphasising that the success of the command relied on a united front, adding that a “sustained synergy is our greatest weapon in combating smuggling and maritime crimes,” insisting that a united front was non-negotiable for national security.
On the inter-agency level to foster a one-service approach, DC Esiet held strategic meetings with the Customs Area Controllers of Port Harcourt II (Onne), the Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone, and the Cross River/Calabar Free Trade Zone/Akwa Ibom Area Command.
To further reinforce maritime safety, he equally paid courtesy visits to top maritime security brass, including the Commander, NNS Pathfinder, Port Harcourt, the Commanding Officer, Navy Forward Operation Base (FOB), Ibaka, the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC), Eastern Naval Command, and the Cross River State Commissioner of Police.
On community and private sector partnership and in recognition of the vital role of grassroots support, DC Esiet visited monarchs in the region, underscoring commitment to maintaining deep-rooted ties with host communities, among others.
On fiscal policy compliance, he reiterated his administration’s resolve to strictly align with the policy direction of the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, emphasising that his leadership would focus on streamlining maritime enforcement protocols, ensuring officers were motivated and equipped while maintaining an open-door policy with licensed agents and partners.
The Eastern Marine Command, which is a specialised wing of customs, is dedicated to patrolling the nation’s Eastern Waterways, preventing smuggling, and ensuring the security of maritime trade.
Economy
OTC Securities Exchange Slips 0.02% Amid Surge in Trading Activity
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a marginal loss of 0.02 per cent on Tuesday, May 26, due to selling pressure, as investors cut down their exposure to unlisted stocks.
During the session, the volume of securities traded by investors jumped by 45.6 per cent to 2.2 million units from the previous day’s 1.5 million units, the value of securities increased by 119.5 per cent to N129.9 million from the N59.2 million recorded a day earlier, and the number of deals soared by 92.6 per cent to 52 deals from the preceding day’s 27 deals.
At the close of business, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with 61.2 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc followed with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
Five securities recorded various movements yesterday at the OTC securities exchange, with three price gainers and two price losers.
For the advancers, they were led by 11 Plc, which added N22.11 to its share price to close at N243.11 per unit versus N221.10 per unit, CSCS Plc grew by N2.95 to N77.80 per share from N74.85 per share, and IPWA Plc expanded by 80 Kobo to N8.83 per unit from N8.03 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc shrank by N12.11 to N167.89 per share from N180.00 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc lost 2 Kobo to sell at N2.98 per unit versus Monday’s N3.00 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation dropped N600 million to close at N2.571 trillion compared with the previous day’s N2.571 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) fell by 1.00 points to 4,297.17 points from 4,298.17 points.
The market will be closed on Wednesday (May 27) and Thursday (May 28) for the Eid al-Kabir holidays.
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