Economy
Nigeria to Witness Economic Crisis, High Fiscal Deficits—Fitch
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s decision to take off 417,000 barrels per day from its crude oil production quota will lead to deeper economic contraction and higher fiscal deficits, says Fitch Ratings.
The rating agency also added that the decision will further compound pressures on the country’s external finances resulting from the slump in oil prices, the nation’s main source of foreign earnings.
In a statement released on Monday, the credit rating company noted that Nigeria’s adherence to oil production cuts under the agreement signed in April by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) will affect growth and external finances this year.
“We assume that Nigeria will comply fully with the production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, and have reduced our forecast oil output to 1.88 million barrels per day (mbpd, including condensates) in 2020 and 1.87 mbpd in 2021, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1 mbpd for both years,” it said.
The agency also added that it had adjusted Nigeria’s gross domestic product forecast for the year, expecting a slump of 3 percent which should recover in 2021.
“We have adjusted our GDP forecasts, and now expect Nigeria’s economy to contract by 3 percent in 2020, before a recovery to 3 percent growth in 2021,” it stated.
Fitch said that it expects Nigeria’s increased recourse to concessional multilateral loans to ease near-term liquidity pressures, but the risk of a disruptive macroeconomic adjustment will persist.
Nigeria had requested for loans from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the African Development Bank amounting to $5.4 billion.
It said that despite the OPEC+ deal, its oil price forecasts remain unchanged, at $35 per barrel for Brent on average in 2020 and projected a $45 per barrel increase in 2021.
Fitch said that Nigeria’s foreign-currency reserves had dropped by $5 billion over the first four months of the year despite only limited depreciation in the Naira’s key exchange rates.
It said, “This reflects moves by the CBN to tighten foreign-currency access. This has contained capital outflows temporarily, although the build-up of pent-up foreign-currency demand may increase the risk of a disruptive future exchange-rate adjustment.
“We expect outflows to materialise later in the year, which, alongside a significant current-account deficit and continued CBN resistance to overhauling the exchange-rate framework, will drive a fall in international reserves from $38.6 billion at end-2019 to $23.3 billion at end-2020.”
It further said the contraction in exports and remittance inflows means the current account will remain in deficit, despite a sharp drop in imports.
“We project the current account, which had been in surplus for much of the last 20 years, to record a deficit equivalent to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021.
“External liquidity pressures will be aggravated by outflows of foreign portfolio investment.” It stated.
Fitch highlighted an intensification of external liquidity pressures as a negative rating sensitivity when it downgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating in April, to ‘B’ with a Negative Outlook from ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.
Nevertheless, greater recourse to multilateral borrowing will help to ease the strain Nigeria faces on this front which according to Fitch, if secured, would cover around 21 percent of the general government deficit in 2020.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The embargo earlier placed in the trading of Thomas Wyatt Nigeria shares has been lifted by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Regulation Limited.
The regulatory subsidiary of NGX Group lifted the suspension on Monday, July 6, 2026, via a notice signed by Bonaventure Onwuji on behalf of the Head of the Issuer Regulation Department of NGX RegCo.
Investors were earlier prevented from buying and selling equities of the organisation after it failed to submit its relevant financial statements as required by the listing rules.
The embargo was placed on October 31, 2025, in line with the provisions of Rule 3.1: Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing, which provides that if an issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the cure period, the exchange will: a) send to the issuer a second filing deficiency notification within two business days after the end of the cure period, b) suspend trading in the issuer’s securities, and c) notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the market within 24 hours of the suspension.
After filing the results with NGX Limited, and pursuant to Rule 3.3 of the Default Filing Rules, which states that the suspension of trading in the issuer’s securities shall be lifted upon submission of the relevant accounts provided the exchange is satisfied that the accounts comply with all applicable rules of the exchange. The exchange shall thereafter also announce through the medium by which the public and the SEC was initially notified of the suspension, that the suspension has been lifted, the suspension was lifted.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian domestic oil producer Renaissance Energy has recorded its first major oil discovery since taking over Oil Mining Lease (OML) 74 last year, following the successful drilling of an exploration well offshore Nigeria in a development that could support the country’s efforts to boost crude oil production and replenish reserves.
Preliminary results showed about 1,000 feet (305 metres) of crude oil-bearing reservoirs across seven zones, with data and fluid tests confirming light oil in high-quality reservoirs, Renaissance said in a statement, without providing further details.
OML 74 is a large shallow-water block in the eastern Niger Delta off Nigeria’s coast and holds at least eight previously undeveloped discoveries.
Renaissance, which now owns Shell’s former onshore and shallow-water assets, operates Nigeria’s largest upstream joint venture with 18 oil leases, two export terminals and a FPSO vessel in the oil-rich delta.
Commenting on Tuesday, Mr Tony Attah, the managing director/chief executive of Renaissance, said the discovery reflects the company’s renewed focus on exploration and its commitment to boosting Nigeria’s long-term oil production.
“The success of JK-004, just over one year after assuming operatorship of these assets, demonstrates the strength of our exploration programme,” he said.
He lauded the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), adding that the exploration performance reflected the collaboration with the company’s joint venture partners comprising the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), TotalEnergies Limited and Agip Energy and Natural Resources.
He added that the NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Bayo Ojulari, and the Executive Vice President, Upstream, Mr Udobong Ntia, provided the needed strategic guidance with commitment for value delivery across the joint venture assets.
On his part, the Vice President of Exploration and Chief Explorer at Renaissance, Mr Johnbosco Uche, said the exploration success was due to the company’s subsurface excellence, technical rigour, and disciplined approach to reserve replacement.
“The JK-004 well provides a strong foundation for accelerated maturation with clear pathways to early development and value realisation,” the Chief Explorer said, adding that the strategic location of JK-004 near an existing field would enable rapid commercialisation.
The chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, described the feat as a perfect alignment with the commission’s vision of growing the nation’s reserves “to future-proof sustainable national growth,” and pledged to continue building the enabling regulatory environment required to support the Nigerian oil and gas industry.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The mandatory takeover bid of about 1.63 per cent shares held by minority shareholders of Premier Paints Plc by Xenergi has been launched.
Business Post learned that the exercise will open at 8 am on Monday, July 13, 2026, and close on Friday, August 7, 2026, and it concerns shareholders of Premier Paint, excluding Xenergi Plc, whose names appear in the register of members of Premier Paint on the qualification date, which was Monday, July 6, 2026.
Xenergi is looking to acquire a total of 2 million shares of Premier Paints at N38 per unit, amounting to N76 million.
The reason for this offer is to enable Xenergi comply with Section 142(4) of the ISA Act 2025 and Rules 445 – 448 of the SEC New Rules and Amendment dated August 30, 2021, following its acquisition of a 49.60 per cent majority equity stake in Premier Paint.
On June 8, 2026, Xenergi Plc acquired 61,003,350 ordinary shares in Premier Paint, representing a 49.60 per cent equity stake.
Xenergi Plc and Premier Paint Plc executed a Share Sale and Purchase Agreement detailing the terms and conditions of the acquisition. The acquisition was concluded following receipt of the required regulatory approvals from the Federal Competition & Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
In accordance with Section 142(4) of the ISA Act 2025, Xenergi is required to make a takeover bid to all the other shareholders of Premier Paint.
Consequently, on May 25, 2026, the board of Xenergi granted approval for a Takeover to be made to all qualifying shareholders, for the acquisition of the offer shares.
