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Economy

Nigerian Equities Grow 31.87% in 9 Months

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Nigerian Equities

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

In the first nine months of 2017, the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) appreciated by 31.87 percent.

According to the latest report released by FSDH Research, this was attributed to improvements in the country’s economy since the beginning of this year.

FSDH Research’s historical analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between the movement in crude oil price and the Nigerian equity market.

The consensus on the short-term outlook for crude oil (Bonny Light) price is that it will remain above $50 per barrel.

The sustained high crude oil price coupled with improved oil production has led to a sustained accretion to the external reserves, which stood at $32.74 billion as at October 3, 2017.

The firm said it expects a continued boost to the external reserves in the short-to-medium term as oil price and production continue to strengthen because it is positive for the equity market.

Additionally, the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange (FX) Window (I&E Window) has increased the supply of foreign exchange into the Nigerian economy and led to relative stability in the FX market. The I&E Window has also attracted more foreign investments into Nigeria. FSDH Research’s analysis of the capital importation data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) between January and July 2017 shows that there was a growth in capital importation in 2017, compared with 2016.

The total capital importation between January and July 2017 stood at $3.76 billion, representing a growth of 85.32 percent over $2.03 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2016.

Other Investments (OI) – Loans attracted the highest capital of $1.69 billion between January and July 2017, closely followed by Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) – Equity of $1.15 billion, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) – Equity of $513.23 million.

FSDH Research said it expects continued foreign inflow into the equity market as the FX market remains stable.

It pointed out that this improved liquidity will boost the expected rally in the equity market. The drop in the yields on the fixed income securities should lead to portfolio realignments in favour of the equity market to take advantage of higher returns.

At the last auction on October 4, 2017, the yield on the 364-Day NTB stood at 18.65 percent, lower than the average yield of 22.71 percent recorded between January and September 2017.

Similarly, the yield on the 16.39 percent FGN January 2022 Bond stood at 15.83 percent as at the close of trading on October 4, 2017, lower than the average yield of 16.08 percent recorded between January and September 2017.

FSDH Research notes increased economic activities in most of the sectors of the Nigerian economy in September 2017.

A review of the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report that the CBN published for the month of September 2017 shows that economic activities in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors continue to strengthen.

The Composite Manufacturing Index (CMI) expanded for the sixth consecutive month in 2017 to stand at 55.3 points in September 2017, from 53.6 points in August 2017.

The Composite Non-Manufacturing Index (CNMI) also expanded for the fifth consecutive month to 54.9 points in September 2017 from 54.1 points in August 2017.

The report is an indication that the Q3 2017 earnings of quoted companies will be an improvement over previous quarters.

According to FSDH Research, its forecasts for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3 and Q4 2017 show that the GDP should grow in excess of 2 percent.

The firm says it expects the equity market to respond positively to the strong Q3 2017 GDP figures that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release on 22 November 2017.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Oil Market Rallies 6% Over US-Iran Peace Talks Uncertainty

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market soared around 6 per cent in Monday trading ​on uncertainty over peace talks between the United States and Iran after violence flared around the Strait ‌of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures went up by $5.10 or 5.64 per cent to $95.48 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced by $5.76 or 6.87 per cent to $89.61 per barrel.

The latest round of escalations in the Middle East pushed prices up, renewing fears of a drastic global energy shock, following a weekend of tensions, where shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has once again ground to a halt after a brief opening on Friday.

More than ⁠20 ships ​passed through the strait on Saturday, carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, ​metals and fertilisers, which was the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.

However, the new regime in Iran has warned that the latest closure will remain in place until the US blockade is lifted.

Over the weekend, the US seized an ​Iranian cargo ship that tried to break through its blockade while Iran said it would ⁠retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption in hostilities.

Iran has warned that it cannot guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if its oil exports continue to be restricted, saying that security for shipping in the waterway cannot be separated from pressure on its own crude flows.

Prior to that, Iran said that passage for all commercial vessels through the ​Strait of Hormuz was open for the remainder of a ceasefire announced earlier. Shipping ​traffic through the Strait of ​Hormuz typically handles roughly ⁠one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas supply.

The renewed pressure also comes as Iran-aligned Houthis have threatened to target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about additional risks to alternative export routes for Middle East crude.

With the two-week ceasefire set to expire later this week, the renewed hostilities ​cast doubts over prospects for a second round of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he was sending a new delegation to Pakistan for peace talks, which follows a previous 21-hour stint led by Vice President JD Vance, failing to broker an agreement. Reuters reported on Monday that Iran is considering attending the peace talks.

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Economy

Unlisted Securities Market Rises 0.59% Week-on-Week

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Nigeria's unlisted securities market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange increased by 0.59 per cent in Trading Week 16 of 2026, with the market capitalisation adding N13.58 billion to settle at N2.329 trillion compared with the previous week’s N2.315 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) up by 22.70 points to 3,893.15 points from 3,870.45 points in week 15.

Over the course of five trading sessions of the week, the total volume of stocks transacted by market participants went down by 50.2 per cent to 3.87 million units from 7.77 million units, but the value increased by 20.9 per cent to N150.9 million from N124.9 million. These trades were carried out in 162 deals across 20 stocks.

The most traded stock by value for the week was Okitipupa Plc with N46.7 million, followed by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with N36.3 million. Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria Plc recorded N31.9 million, MRS Oil Plc posted N14.6 million, and 11 Plc achieved N12.6 million.

The most active stock by volume was Geo-Fluids Plc with 1.5 million units, and trailed by UBN Property Plc with 0.828 million units. CSCS Plc traded 0.609 million units, Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria Plc quoted 0.325 million units, and Okitipupa Plc sold 0.26 million units.

Last week, 11 securities recorded movements, with eight on the green side and three on the red side.

MRS Oil Plc gained N33.75 to close at N197.75 per unit versus N164.00 per unit, Nipco Plc which rose by N31 to N344.00 per share versus N313.00 per share, Okitipupa Plc appreciated by N20 to N280.00 per unit from N260.00 per unit, Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria Plc improved by N5.21 addition to N97.21 per share from N92.00 per share, NASD Plc chalked up N1.14 to sell at N38.50 per unit versus N37.36 per unit, Food Concepts Plc appreciated by 26 Kobo to N2.94 per share from N2.68 per share, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc increased by 6 Kobo to 63 Kobo per unit from 57 Kobo per unit, and Lighthouse Financial Plc expanded by 6 Kobo to 72 Kobo per share from 66 Kobo per share.

Conversely, 11 Plc lost N10.22 to quote at N212.08 per unit versus N222.30 per unit, CSCS Plc declined by N5.50 to N58.00 per share from N63.50 per share, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc shrank by 2 Kobo to N2.30 per unit from N2.32 per unit.

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Economy

World Bank Report: FG Counters Claims of Diverted Federation Earnings

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dampen growth in Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The federal government has said there is no iota of truth in reports making the rounds that a significant portion of federation earnings is being “diverted”.

The claims came from a recent World Bank report, which the government said the media misinterpreted as “hidden spending.”

In a statement signed on Sunday by the Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, the federal government emphasised that the characterisation of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) deductions as “waste” or missing funds was “incorrect,” noting that the World Bank report presented the deductions as statutory transfers, savings and investments, security-related expenditures, cost-of-collection charges, refunds to Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), and transfers and interventions benefiting subnational governments.

“It is important to emphasise that refunds and transfers to states and other tiers of government are not leakages. They represent legitimate fiscal flows, including repayments of obligations and statutorily backed allocations,” the statement said.

It was further stressed that, “The World Bank explicitly notes that reforms implemented in early 2026, including the recently signed Executive Order to safeguard remittance of petroleum revenues, are already addressing concerns around deductions, and are expected to improve transparency while increasing revenues available to all tiers of government by about 0.4 per cent of GDP annually.”

“Misinterpreting one aspect of the analysis without acknowledging the progressive reforms and measures already introduced to enhance distributable federation revenues gives a distorted picture,” it submitted.

The Nigerian authorities averred that the broader message of the World Bank report is positive and forward-looking, as economic growth is becoming more broad-based across sectors, inflation is declining due to deliberate policy actions, Nigeria’s external position has strengthened, and debt indicators have improved.

The government declared that the World Bank did not say in the report that “Nigeria’s fiscal system is collapsing or that reforms have failed. Rather, it states that reforms are working, and they must be sustained and deepened to translate macroeconomic gains into inclusive growth.”

The statement appealed to “stakeholders, media organisations, and the public to engage constructively with fiscal information and avoid twisted interpretations that may undermine reform efforts and fuel public discord.”

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