By Adedapo Adesanya

The major crude oil grades soared by over 3 per cent on Tuesday as ​differences between the United States and Iran over a proposal to end the war in the Middle East raised fresh concerns.

Brent crude futures gained $3.56 or 3.42 per cent to trade at $107.77 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by $4.11 or 4.19 per cent to $102.18 a barrel.

The fact that the US and Iran cannot come to unifying terms over a proposal to end the war have spurred concerns that supply disruptions could upend the ‌global oil market are likely to be prolonged.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that ceasefire talks with Iran were on “life support,” pointing to disagreements over Iran’s demands of a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, the removal ​of a US naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales, and compensation for war damage.

Iran also emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait of ​Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday said it now assumes the strait will ​be effectively closed through late May, leading to much larger losses of Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies than its prior forecasts.

The agency had earlier expected the waterway would ​be shut through late April, since it was closed in early March.

It said even after flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, it will take at least until late 2026 or early 2027 for oil output and trade patterns to return to pre-conflict levels.

The EIA estimates 10.5 million barrels per day of output were lost during April across the Middle East due to the Strait ​closure, limiting exports.

Prolonged loss of Middle Eastern supply is forcing countries around the world to burn through their oil and gas stockpiles. The ​EIA now expects global oil inventories to ​fall about 2.6 million barrels per day this ⁠year, much more than its previous forecast of a 300,000 barrels per day decline.

Already, oil output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in April fell ​to its lowest level in more than two decades.

The US President is bound to meet his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, days after the US imposed sanctions on three individuals and nine ​companies for facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian economic think-tank, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), has raised concerns about the country’s debt burden, with the outlook for 2026 indicating new borrowings of about N29 trillion.

In the May 2026 edition of its Debt Burden Monitor, the group said Nigeria’s debt pressure is persisting beneath surface stability, adding that the Debt Burden Index (DBI) is signalling elevated fiscal strain.

It stated: “Nigeria’s debt profile presents a nuanced but concerning picture as the economy transitions from 2024 into 2025. Headline indicators suggest a degree of stabilisation, yet underlying fiscal pressures remain elevated when assessed through a more comprehensive lens”.

Explaining the situation further in a historical perspective, NESG stated: “In 2024, the Debt Burden Index (DBI) declined to 70.9 points from a peak of 83.6points in 2023. At face value, this suggests an easing of debt stress. “However, this improvement was largely driven by a partial moderation in debt service pressures, rather than a fundamental strengthening of fiscal capacity.

“At the same time, public debt-to-GDP rose sharply to 40.6 per cent, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing to finance fiscal deficits and structural revenue weaknesses.

“This divergence highlights a central issue that the underlying fiscal vulnerability remained significant.

“The 2025 DBI trajectory reinforces concerns. Quarterly estimates show that the DBI remains elevated and volatile, rising to 78.4 points in Q1’25 and peaking at 79.6 points in Q2’25 before moderating to 76.2 points in Q3’25 and closing the year at an estimated 79.2 points in Q4’25.

‘’This pattern indicates that debt pressure has not structurally eased but instead fluctuates within a high-stress band.

“Overall, the 2024–2025 transition does not yet reflect a decisive shift toward debt sustainability. Rather, it signals a system making only marginal adjustments, with improvements in headline ratios masking persistent structural imbalances.

“The DBI captures this reality more effectively, signalling that Nigeria remains in a high-risk fiscal environment despite apparent stabilisation in conventional indicators”, NESG concluded.

As of early 2026, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N159.28 trillion, with $51.86 billion as external debt, as of December 31, 2025.

The 2026 fiscal plan features a budget of N68.32 trillion, with a deficit of over N20 trillion set to be funded by new borrowing.

Actual new borrowing is approximately N17.8 trillion to N29.2 trillion, reflecting increased fiscal requirements.

Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal outlook came under sharp scrutiny after the Federal Government raised its borrowing plan to N29.2 trillion, far above the earlier projection of N17.89 trillion.

With total expenditure now estimated at N68.32 trillion and projected revenue at N36.87 trillion, the widening deficit is renewing concerns about debt sustainability, rising debt service obligations, inflation risks, exchange rate pressures, and the possible squeeze on private-sector credit.

Also, the country’s debt service for this year is estimated at N15.5 trillion to N15.9 trillion.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Refinery is targeting a $50 billion valuation ahead of the planned Initial Public Offering (IPO) in Nigeria later this year.

A report by Bloomberg, quoting sources, noted that the company wants to sell up to a 10 per cent stake, potentially raising around $5 billion in one of Nigeria’s biggest capital market deals.

The 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery has transformed Nigeria’s fuel supply chain by reducing dependence on imported petroleum products.

A senior executive at the Dangote Group confirmed to Bloomberg that the projected valuation reflects the company’s internal expectations but declined to comment further on the timing or structure of the transaction.

The planned listing comes as rising global crude oil prices and stronger domestic fuel consumption improve the refinery’s commercial outlook.

The Dangote Group has also appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital, operating under the Standard Bank umbrella, will handle the international book-building process and lead engagement with foreign portfolio investors.

Vetiva Capital Management, which has advised on previous Dangote listings, will manage retail investor distribution within Nigeria, while FirstCap will focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds, according to the report

Located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, the facility has a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it Africa’s largest single-train refinery.

Since beginning large-scale production of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, the refinery has reshaped Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, reducing reliance on imported petroleum products and increasing local refining capacity in Africa’s biggest oil producer.

Last year, Mr Aliko Dangote, the majority stakeholder at the refinery, indicated that Nigerian investors would soon have an opportunity to buy shares directly in the refinery business, signalling a broader push to attract domestic participation in the energy sector.

The IPO is anchored by an unprecedented dividend structure that allows investors to purchase shares in Nigerian naira but receive returns in US Dollars, backed by an estimated $6.4 billion in annual petrochemical export revenues.

The prospectus has already been submitted for regulatory review, and a subscription window is expected to open by August 2026.

It will also be the first time that the Refinery will become available for public ownership. The refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone near Lagos, was commissioned in May 2023 after nearly a decade of construction and an investment of approximately $20 billion.

By February 2026, the facility had reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it the world’s largest single-train refinery and Africa’s biggest refining complex.