Economy
Nigerian Private Sector Posts Fastest Output Growth After 53.7 PMI in February
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
In February 2025, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Nigerian private sector went up to 53.7 points from the 52.0 points recorded in January.
This information was revealed by Stanbic IBTC Bank in its PMI report made available to Business Post on Monday. The sector also posted its fastest output growth in just over a year.
Rates of expansion in output, new orders and purchasing activity all quickened as demand picked up and inflationary pressures showed signs of moderating. That said, with costs continuing to rise sharply, some companies were reluctant to hire additional staff and employment increased only marginally.
“Activity in Nigeria’s private sector improved for the third consecutive month with the latest PMI reading of 53.7 points in February at its highest level since January 2024 at 54.5 points.
“A relatively stable exchange rate and moderation in fuel prices are supporting the ease in inflationary pressures, which in turn helped strengthen consumer demand in the month. Thus, new orders increased for the fourth consecutive month, with survey participants noting a greater desire on the part of customers to commit to new projects.
“In line with the increase in new orders, output also increased sharply in February as the output index settled at 56.9 points from 53.7 points in January.
“That said, input price inflation eased further in February to its weakest level since April 2024. However, about 39.0% of respondents increased their output prices in the month, with less than 1.0% lowering their charges,” the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, commented.
“Nigeria’s real GDP growth improved further in Q4:24, rising by 3.84% y/y, from 3.46% y/y in Q3:24. Growth in Q4:24 was the highest since Q4:21 when this economy grew by 3.98% y/y in real terms. Q4:24 GDP now brings 2024 full-year growth to 3.40%, from 2.74% in 2023, supported by both the oil and the non-oil sectors.
“In terms of contributions to the overall GDP growth in Q4:24, Services continue to dominate with a 79.0% contribution to the country’s GDP growth (same as Q3:24), followed by Agriculture with an 11.9% contribution while Industries contributed the remaining 9.0% of the real GDP growth in the review quarter.
“The non-oil sector of the Nigerian economy is now poised to improve further in 2025 as the lingering FX stability and improved FX liquidity bodes well for the real sector activities, including manufacturing, trade and real estate.
“This, in addition to the anticipated reduction in borrowing costs, should further support the growth of the non-oil sector in 2025.
“Accordingly, we project the non-oil sector to grow by 3.4% y/y in 2025. Therefore, we still expect the Nigerian economy to grow by 3.5% y/y in real terms in 2025 with the Q1:25 growth print forecasted to settle at 3.55% y/y,” he added.
The health of the private sector has now strengthened in three consecutive months. Output increased for the third month running in February. Moreover, the latest expansion was sharp and the fastest since January 2024.
Economy
Oil Prices Rise 2% as Middle East Hostilities Escalate
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose around 2 per cent on Wednesday as hostilities in the Middle East erupted anew and talks between Iran and the United States showed little progress.
Brent futures grew by $1.81 or 1.89 per cent to $97.81 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $2.26 or 2.41 per cent to $96.02 a barrel.
According to reports, Iran launched ballistic missiles toward regional neighbours Kuwait and Bahrain, killing one person and injuring dozens, while the US forces conducted strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.
Iranian drones and missiles struck Kuwait International Airport overnight, causing the country to immediately suspend air traffic, activate emergency procedures, and divert flights to alternative airports.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the operation was retaliation for recent US military actions and warned that regional states supporting American operations could face further consequences. Kuwait hosts major US military facilities and serves as a key logistics hub for American operations across the Middle East, but until then had largely avoided becoming a direct target.
Following the overnight attack, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) called for a united Gulf stance.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed not to have a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei was involved in negotiations. He has insisted this week that discussions remain active and said a broader agreement could emerge within days, while Iranian officials have delivered contradictory messages.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said contacts with American representatives have not been cut off, but no progress has been made in the negotiations.
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to bottleneck global energy supplies, driving sustained upward pressure on oil markets.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of peak summer demand if stock draws continue at their current pace.
Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 8.0 million barrels during the week ending May 29, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 6.75 million barrels in the period.
Economy
CSCS Boss Shantali Says T+1 Settlement Targets Long-Term Capital Market Growth
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, Mr Shehu Yahaya Shantali, says Nigeria’s shift to a T+1 settlement cycle goes beyond faster transactions and is intended to deepen long-term growth in the capital market.
Speaking at a ceremony marking the commencement of T+1 settlement in Lagos, Mr Shantali described the development as a strategic milestone that goes beyond faster transaction timelines to reinforce the market’s structural strength and future readiness.
According to him, the shortened settlement cycle reflects years of investment in infrastructure, technology, and stakeholder collaboration aimed at transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive investment destination.
Nigeria recently became the first market in Africa to adopt the T+1 framework, reducing the settlement period for securities transactions from two days to one.
According to the boss of the securities depository firm, the shortened settlement cycle reflects years of investment in infrastructure, technology, and stakeholder collaboration aimed at transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive investment destination.
“These investments are not solely for T+1 settlement but to position Nigeria’s capital market for sustained growth and longterm competitiveness,” he said.
The migration from T+1 settlement is expected to enhance liquidity, improve capital efficiency, and reduce counterparty risk across the market.
Mr Shantali explained that the T+1 transition represents the culmination of a decades-long evolution from a manual, paper-based system to a fully automated, technology-driven post-trade environment.
He recalled that investors previously waited several months to complete transactions under the old system, but successive reforms, including transitions to T+5, T+3, and T+2, steadily improved efficiency and market integrity.
The latest upgrade, he said, builds on extensive preparations undertaken over the past three years, including system enhancements, process optimisation, and market-wide readiness assessments coordinated by the SEC and industry stakeholders.
On his part, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, said the reform signals Nigeria’s readiness to compete at the highest levels of global finance, noting that the country transitioned from T+2 to T+1 within six months.
“The era of T+1 has begun,” Mr Agama said, adding that shorter settlement cycles are critical to attracting global capital and strengthening investor confidence.
He noted that leading markets such as the United States, Canada, and India have already adopted T+1 settlement, while several European markets are preparing to migrate, making Nigeria’s transition a crucial step in maintaining international relevance.
Economy
Businesses Not Feeling Full Benefits of Tinubu’s Reforms—NECA
By Adedapo Adesanya
Many private sector operators have yet to experience the anticipated gains of President Bola Tinubu’s reforms as they continue to grapple with inflation, energy costs and exchange rate volatility, the Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, has said.
Mr Oyerinde acknowledged that the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market reflected the government’s commitment to market-driven economic policies and improved transparency across sectors.
He said the reforms had enhanced fuel availability, reduced recurring supply disruptions and signalled policy consistency to both local and foreign investors, but noted that while there are indications of improved investor confidence, many domestic businesses, particularly Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), continue to contend with operational challenges.
The NEC chief said the depreciation of the Naira had increased production costs, affected competitiveness and heightened operational risks for many businesses.
“Many private sector operators are yet to experience the anticipated gains of the reforms as they continue to grapple with inflation, energy costs and exchange rate volatility,” he said in a recent interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) while assessing the administration’s economic performance.
Mr Oyerinde said declining consumer purchasing power and increasing production expenses had placed pressure on businesses, with some firms adjusting investment plans and operations in response to prevailing economic conditions.
On infrastructure and refining, the NECA DG said developments in housing, industrial investments and local petroleum refining had created opportunities and contributed to improved fuel supply.
He, however, identified power supply as a major challenge facing businesses, citing persistent grid instability and reliance on alternative energy sources.
“In spite of the ongoing reforms in the power sector, insufficient electricity supply remains the number one constraint to business productivity and competitiveness across the country,” he said.
Mr Oyerinde said that although some macroeconomic indicators, including foreign reserves and government revenues, had shown improvement, the gains were yet to be broadly reflected in business operations and household welfare.
“Inflation, high energy costs, multiple taxation, logistics challenges and weak consumer spending continue to constrain productivity and limit business expansion,” he said.
He said employers remained cautious about large-scale recruitment amid high borrowing costs, foreign exchange volatility and rising operating expenses.
According to him, sustainable job creation will depend on deeper structural reforms that reduce the cost of doing business and improve access to affordable finance.
He urged the government to prioritise stable power supply, lower energy costs, tax harmonisation, policy consistency and foreign exchange stability to accelerate economic recovery and strengthen investor confidence.
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