Economy
Nigeria’s Asset Under Management Grows 25% to N3.5trn—Agusto
By Adedapo Adesanya
Research and ratings agency, Agusto & Co., has estimated that Nigeria’s assets under management (AuM), as of the end of 2022, grew by 25 per cent to N3.5 trillion ($7.8 billion).
This makes Nigeria the third largest investment management zone in sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa and Morocco.
In a note shared with Business Post, it was stated that this growth was driven in part by increased investor confidence following the gradual rise in the yields offered on naira-denominated investments during the latter half of the year and growth in dollar-denominated portfolios as discerning Nigerians hedge against the persistent devaluation of the naira.
Nonetheless, despite Nigeria’s population estimate of 220 million people and the high foreign exchange remittance inflows from Nigerians living in the diaspora ($20.9 billion or N9.3 trillion in 2022), the asset management industry continues to underachieve.
The firm noted that the industry’s growth remains constrained by a large informal sector (estimated at 65 per cent of GDP), a high poverty rate of 40 per cent and limited investment opportunities offered by the Nigerian capital market.
It warned that the challenging operating environment in Nigeria has led to an erosion of real incomes and purchasing power, prompting a surge in investors’ inclination towards dollar-denominated assets.
“The escalation of the year-over-year inflation rate from 15.6 per cent in January 2022 to 21.37 per cent in December 2022 is indicative of an unfavourable macroeconomic climate. In addition, the parallel market exchange rate stood at N750/$ as of December 31, 2022, indicating a 63 per cent arbitrage from the official market rate and a 32 per cent depreciation from N570/$ recorded in the corresponding period of the prior year.”
According to Agusto, Naira-denominated investments have lost their lustre in light of current market conditions, and investors are instead looking to high-yield alternatives and FCY-denominated investments.
“In 2022, segregated portfolios accounted for more than half of total managed assets (52 per cent), which amounted to N1.76 trillion as of December 31, 2022, – 40.2 per cent higher than in 2021 – marking a noteworthy shift in the Industry as segregated portfolios overtook collective investment schemes (CISs) in terms of AuM share for the first time in three years.”
Segregated portfolios include privately managed discretionary and non-discretionary client funds, as well as other private collective investment schemes, which provide investment options that are tailored to the unique risk profiles and investment objectives of individual clients. Unlike collective investment schemes, segregated portfolios provide more flexibility and autonomy as they are not directly subject to the scrutiny and monitoring of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Agusto estimated that CISs accounted for 42 per cent (N1.37 trillion) of AuM in 2022, while alternative assets – comprising publicly-listed private equity and infrastructure funds – accounted for the remaining 6 per cent (N345 billion) of the asset management industry’s managed assets as at the same date.
“Investors have shown a growing inclination towards privately managed portfolios rather than the often more restrictive and conservative collective investment schemes, as they seek to gain relatively higher yields from investments.
“In addition, many asset managers have focused more on fostering the growth of segregated portfolios through their investment advisory services while also improving product distribution and enhancing customer experience.
“Furthermore, segregated portfolios have continued to account for a large portion of the Industry’s AuM due to the large volume of funds invested by high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and corporations seeking exposure to specific investment vehicles (in many cases regional Eurobond issuances).”
These specific investment options typically offer relatively higher returns and provide a currency hedge, which may not be widely accessible with collective investment schemes,” it noted.
Giving an outlook, Agusto & Co. anticipates a moderate increase in the size of the asset management industry, with an estimated average growth rate of 15.9 per cent over the next three years.
This will result in total AuM reaching the N4 trillion mark by 2024, it said.
“Growth is expected to be driven by various factors, including increased investments from pension fund administrators and institutional clients.
“The unification of exchange rates is anticipated to result in the repatriation of funds formerly invested in international money markets and reignite foreign interest in naira-denominated assets.
“Furthermore, the anticipated growth trajectory is likely to be fuelled by an increase in the size of segregated portfolios, infrastructure funds and REITs, amongst others.
“The prolonged deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals, which might severely reduce discretionary income and the marginal inclination to save, remains a risk to the growth forecast.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.
The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.
The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.
On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.
In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.
In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.
These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.
Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.
They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.
This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).
Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.
Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.
As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).
The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.
In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.
The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.
“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.
“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.
“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.
“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.
As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.
But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.
The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.
During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.
However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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