Adedapo Adesanya
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Nations (UN) has revealed the recent cash crunch in Nigeria, brought on by plans to replace older higher denominations with newly designed currency notes, affected the country’s informal economy.
In a recent report, the inter-governmental organisation said the development, which lasted for months, mostly affected the informal sector, which accounts for more than 57 per cent of the economy and has an estimated $1.2 trillion GDP.
In the UN report tagged Trade and Development Report Update; Global Trends and Prospects (April 2023), it was disclosed that, “In Nigeria, a shortage of cash, triggered by the replacement of the highest denominations of the country’s currency, hobbled the economy, especially the informal sector.”
“Meanwhile, the continuing decline of oil production, accompanied by large-scale oil theft, poses a main threat to strained finances in Africa’s most populous nation,” it added.
It also projected an expansion of the continent’s economy by 2.5 per cent, which is a drop from last year, in contrast to 2.8 per cent by the World Bank and 3.2 per cent by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“Like in other developing regions, weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions have made growth prospects gloomier for the region. In the case of commodity exporters, the fading of the initial effects of the 2022 price boom will add to the equation,” it said.
“Rising global interest rates have triggered significant capital outflows and have further constrained fiscal space at a time when public finances were already severely affected by costly subsidy schemes aiming at contending the adverse effects of high food and energy prices.
“Under these circumstances, the risk of stagflation is a key concern for many African economies. In approximately half of the countries, inflation remained double digits in early 2023. In many instances, these recent inflation spikes relate to the continuing depreciation of several African currencies in early 2023 – often following a loss in 2022 of 10–30 per cent of their value vis-à-vis the dollar.
“Public debt, in many cases standing at levels not seen since the early 2000s, is another worry across the continent. Out of the 38 African countries that are part of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) of the IMF and World Bank, 8 entities are already ‘in debt distress’, while 13 are considered ‘at high risk’ of distress.”
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in October 2022, announced the redesign of the N200, N500, and N1,000 as part of efforts to boost digital transactions acceptance and fight inflation, insecurity, and corruption. However, the change triggered a cash shortage, which forced businesses to close after being unable to withdraw their money.
Following violent protests by angry Nigerians and threats of strikes by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), the apex bank, after ten days of a Supreme Court verdict, announced that the three denominations will remain legal tender until December 31.
