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Nigeria’s GDP Maintains Positive Growth With 1.92% Rise in Q4, 0.83% FY 2017

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By Dipo Olowookere

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, February 27, 2018 revealed that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in the fourth quarter of 2017 by 1.92 percent (year-on-year) in real terms, maintaining its positive growth since the emergence of the economy from recession in the second quarter of 2017.

According to the stats office, this growth is compared to a contraction of –1.73 percent recorded in Q4 2016 and a growth of 1.40 percent recorded in 2017.

It said further that quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth was 4.29 percent.

The NBS disclosed also that the year 2017 recorded a real annual growth rate of 0.83 percent higher by 2.42 percent than –1.58 percent recorded in 2016.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N31,209,137.74 million in nominal terms higher when compared to N29,169,058.99 million in Q4 2016, resulting in a Nominal GDP growth of 6.99 percent.

This growth, the stats office said, is lower relative to growth recorded in Q4 2016 at 12.49 percent, while nominally, 2017 recorded an annual growth rate of 12.05 percent higher by 4.25 percent compared to 2016 annual growth of 7.80 percent.

The broad classification into the oil and non-oil sectors will give a clearer depiction of the Nigerian economy.

NBS noted that in the period under review, oil production averaged at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd), -0.12 million barrels lower than the daily average production recorded in the third quarter of 2017.

It said oil production during the quarter was higher by 0.15 million barrels per day relative to the corresponding quarter in 2016, which recorded an output of 1.76mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was 8.38 percent (year-on-year) in Q4 2017. This represents an incline of 26.08 percent relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Growth reduced by -17.50 percent when compared to Q3 2017 which was 25.89 percent.

Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector dropped by -25.52 percent in Q4 2017.

The annual growth of the oil sector stood at 4.79 percent higher than the previous year’s growth of -14.45 percent.

The Oil sector contributed 7.17 percent of total real GDP in Q4 2017, up from figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 6.75 percent and 10.04 percent respectively.

The sector’s annual contribution was 8.68 percent in 2017 and 8.35 percent in 2016.

The non-oil sector grew by 1.45 percent in real terms during the reference quarter. This is higher by 1.78 percent point compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and 2.21 percent point higher than in the third quarter of 2017.

The non-oil sector recorded an annual growth of 0.47 percent compared to -0.22 percent in 2016. This sector was driven this quarter mainly by Agriculture (Crop), Trade and Transportation and storage.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.83% to the nation’s GDP, lower from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016 (93.25 percent) but higher than in the third quarter of 2017 (89.96 percent). Annual contribution was 91.32 percent and 91.65 percent in 2016.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Again, OPEC Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Forecasts

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.

The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.

The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.

For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.

On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.

The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.

OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.

Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.

In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.

In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.

These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.

Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.

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Economy

Aradel Holdings Acquires Equity Stake in Chappal Energies

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Aradel Holdings

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.

This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).

Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.

Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.

As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).

The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.

In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.

The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.

“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.

“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.

“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.

“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.

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Economy

Afriland Properties Lifts NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.04%

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Afriland Properties

By Adedapo Adesanya

Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.

As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.

But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.

The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.

During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.

However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.

Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.

Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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