Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Cools to 15.43% in July 2026

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate cooled to 15.43 per cent in July from 15.91 per cent in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report.

“In July 2026, the headline inflation rate stood at 15.43 per cent, down from 15.91 per cent in June 2026 and [lower than the] 24.94 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (July 2025),” the stats office said in the report.

This beat the projection from Coronation Asset Management, which predicted that the July 2026 inflation rate should come at 15.80 per cent, lower than the 15.91 per cent recorded in June 2026.

Coronation explained that it projected a pullback in the rate because of “three primary forces: a fresh energy price shock stemming from renewed Strait of Hormuz hostilities and a domestic refinery pricing disruption, seasonal harvest-related relief on food prices, and continued relative exchange rate stability.”

The organisation noted that the disinflation trend in the first half of the year remained last month, with the fuel price shock denting the pace of improvement rather than reversing it.

Also, the headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.48 per cent compared to the June 2026 headline inflation rate.

On a month-on-month basis, the inflation in July 2026 was 1.57 per cent, which is 0.09 per cent lower than the rate recorded in June 2026 (1.66 per cent). This means that in July 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in June 2026.

The food inflation rate in July 2026 was 20.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis and stood at 26.20 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (July 2025). On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in July 2026 was 5.56 per cent, up by 1.82 per cent from June 2026 (3.75 per cent).

The ease in headline inflation raises expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may resume cutting interest rates from as early as next month.