Economy
Nigeria’s Imports Jump 80.7% to $56bn in Six Years—WTO
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s import levels increased by 80.7 per cent in six years, rising from $31 billion in 2017 to $56 billion in 2023, according to the latest World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Policy Review.
This rise, according to the report, was primarily fueled by refined petroleum, which made up 38.3 per cent of the total imports.
The WTO noted that the Nigerian government’s trade and economic policies lacked consistency in the past, affecting the achievement of ambitious government goals.
The report added that some of Nigeria’s restrictive and interventionist policies seemed to counteract broader government strategies to support economic diversification and the integration of more productive manufacturing enterprises into global value chains.
The sixth Trade Policy Review of Nigeria, based on reports by the WTO Secretariat and the Government of Nigeria, emphasises the critical role of trade in Nigeria’s economic development strategy.
According to the WTO, Nigeria, with a nominal GDP of $363 billion, remains one of Africa’s largest economies, largely due to its oil and gas exports, which continue to dominate its portfolio.
“Crude oil alone accounted for 80.6 per cent of goods exports, while gas made up 10.5 per cent. Exports have risen by nearly 50 per cent over the last six years, reaching $65 billion.
“Exports of goods continue to be dominated by crude oil (80.6 per cent) as well as gas (10.5 per cent).
“Between 2017 and 2023, they increased by nearly 50 per cent to $65 billion. Services exports, about 6 per cent of all exports, are dominated by transport and travel (58.2 per cent), as well as increasingly financial services (22.9 per cent, predominantly traded digitally).
“The share of non-oil exports in total exports doubled between 2017 and 2023, consisting primarily of agricultural products, fertilizer, and metals.
“Imports also grew strongly from $31 billion to $56 billion, with refined petroleum accounting for the largest share (38.3 per cent).
“Services imports, which accounted for more than 20 per cent of total imports, are also dominated by transport and travel services (63.7 per cent of services imports), followed by other business services (20.1 per cent, predominantly traded digitally),” the report said.
The review highlights the Nigerian government’s ambitious Agenda 2050, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil by promoting manufacturing, linking domestic raw materials with industries, and expanding the domestic market.
The WTO said that despite these efforts, some restrictive policies seem to counter the goal of economic diversification.
“For example, the share of intermediate goods in non-oil imports fell from 44 per cent to 32 per cent between 2017 and 2023, indicating limited progress in expanding manufacturing’s contribution to the economy.
“Government strategies and policies at times seem to lack consistency and, in the past, did not fully achieve their ambitious objectives.
“Some restrictive and interventionist policies seem to counteract broader government strategies to support economic diversification and the integration of more productive manufacturing enterprises into global value chains.
“Nigeria’s trade in intermediary goods developed little between 2010 and 2021 and the share of intermediate goods in total non-oil imports declined from 44 per cent to 32 per cent between 2017 and 2023.
“FDI has continued its downward trend and virtually ceased in 2022, with few disaggregated figures available,” the report said.
The WTO explains that economic reforms have been underway in Nigeria, including the removal of fuel subsidies and a restructuring of the foreign exchange rate system.
According to the report, in 2023, Nigeria eliminated its complex multi-tiered exchange rate system, which had resulted in significant foreign exchange shortages.
“In 2023, the Government initiated important reforms regarding the foreign exchange rate, fuel subsidies, and fiscal discipline. In June, it eliminated a complex exchange rate system using multiple windows and rates which had led to significant foreign exchange (FX) shortages.
“The largely inaccessible official rate of the naira rapidly aligned with the parallel rate at which most FX transactions had effectively taken place and by March 2024, the official exchange rate had lost around 70 per cent of its value in USD terms.
“In 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also removed restrictions on the use of FX for the import of 43 groups of commodities, affecting more than 900 tariff lines that had been in place since 2015.
“A price verification system for imports and exports to avoid under- or over-invoicing was in place between August 2023 and June 2024. However, some FX restrictions remain in place, including repatriation requirements,” it said.
The report added that following an earlier failed attempt in 2020, the government also removed costly and inefficient fuel subsidies in mid-2023 but established retail price caps for fuels at the end of 2023, effectively reintroducing some form of support.
“These subsidies accounted for about 15 per cent of government expenditure in 2022.
The Nigerian government also decided to end the practice of financing a significant share of its spending via overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which had contributed to increasing debt as a share of GDP to 30 per cent.
“At below 9 per cent, the revenue-to-GDP ratio in Nigeria remains very low and the Government aims to increase it significantly by 2025.
The official exchange rate, which aligned with the parallel rate by March 2024, saw a rapid devaluation of the naira. In June 2023, Nigeria also removed longstanding foreign exchange restrictions on 43 groups of imports to ease access to foreign currency.
“These reforms were intended to create a more stable economic environment, though some foreign exchange restrictions remain, including repatriation requirements for companies.”
By Dipo Olowookere
The value of the Nigerian currency improved against its American counterpart at the parallel market on Boxing Day of 2024, Thursday, December 26.
Business Post reports that the domestic currency appreciated against the greenback during the session by N10 to settle at N1,640/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,650/$1.
The official market was closed yesterday due to the public holiday declared by the federal government to celebrate Christmas.
However, the black market was operational, and trading activities went smoothly.
The local currency firmed up on Thursday due to a decline in customer demand for forex. The country has continued to witness FX inflows from Nigerians in the diaspora, who returned to celebrate the period with their loved ones.
A few of the FX traders on the streets of Lagos informed this reporter that the demand for forex has significantly slowed because of the inflows, but expect a sharp rise from next month when most of the people will return to base.
“Market is a bit dull and it is understandable. We expect things to pick up from next week or so when most of those who returned from abroad are returning.
“Don’t also forget that new travellers will need forex. This is when we will know if the new system of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is effective,” one of the FX traders in Lagos, who asked not to be named, told this newspaper.
Recall that early this month, the central bank launched the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) for forex trading at the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Forex Exchange Market (NAFEM).
This platform was created for transparency in the forex market, with a minimum trade value of $100,000 for interbank foreign exchange trading.
A few days ago, the CBN granted Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators temporary access to the official market as part of efforts to further strengthen the Naira in the currency market.
The CBN in a notice on Friday said BDC operators would have access to FX at the official market from December 19, 2024, to January 30, 2025, with a weekly cap of $25,000.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market closed lower on Thursday in light holiday trade as the US Dollar strengthened and offset hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
The price of Brent crude shrank by 32 cents or 0.43 per cent during the session to settle at $73.26 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude went down by 0.68 per cent or 48 cents to trade at $69.62 per barrel.
Chinese authorities this week agreed to issue 3 trillion Yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, which would be the highest on record, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
The plan for 2025 sovereign debt issuance would be a sharp increase from this year’s 1 trillion Yuan, and it will come as China moves to soften the blow from an expected rise in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports when Donald Trump takes office in January.
The proceeds will be used to boost consumption via subsidy programmes, equipment upgrades by businesses and funding investments in innovation-driven advanced sectors, among other initiatives.
Market analysts noted that injecting a stimulus into a nation’s economy creates increased demand, and increased demand pushes prices higher.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence.
The world’s second-biggest economy has struggled this year, mainly due to a property crisis and tepid domestic demand.
The World Bank sees China’s gross domestic product growth at 4.9 per cent this year, up from its June forecast of 4.8 per cent.
The US Dollar continued to edge up higher after hitting a milestone last week. A stronger Dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The latest weekly report on US inventories, from the American Petroleum Institute (API) industry group, showed crude stocks fell last week by 3.2 million barrels on Tuesday.
Traders will be waiting to see if the official inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirms the decline. The EIA data is due on Friday, later than normal because of the Christmas holiday.
By Dipo Olowookere
Christmas came early for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as it extended its positive run on Tuesday with a 0.82 per cent growth.
The last trading session before Christmas was bullish as investors embraced Santa Claus rally, mopping up shares with sound fundamentals across the key sectors of the bourse.
During the session, the insurance index appreciated by 1.49 per cent, the banking space expanded by 0.98 per cent, the consumer goods counter improved by 0.49 per cent, the industrial goods counter gained 0.15 per cent and the energy sector jumped by 0.14 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 829.88 points to 102,186.03 points from 101,356.15 points and the market capitalisation grew by N503 billion to N61.944 trillion from N61.441 trillion.
MRS Oil gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N217.80, Ikeja Hotel improved by 9.95 per cent to N11.05, Multiverse advanced by 9.90 per cent to N5.55, SAHCO rose by 9.84 per cent to N30.70, and John Holt increased by 9.69 per cent to N6.45.
Conversely, Thomas Wyatt shed 10.00 per cent to quote at N1.71, Caverton shrank by 7.35 per cent to N2.27, Coronation Insurance declined by 5.03 per cent to N1.70, Haldane McCall slipped by 5.00 per cent to N4.75, and Livestock Feeds moderated by 5.00 per cent to N3.80.
When the market ended for the session to resume on Friday, 37 stocks were on the gainers’ chart and 21 stocks were on the losers’ table, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
A total of 431.8 million shares worth N18.3 billion in 8,369 deals during the session compared with the 503.2 million shares valued at N16.3 billion in 12,490 deals, indicating a rise in the trading value by 12.27 per cent and a decline in the trading volume and number of deals by 14.19 per cent and 32.99 per cent, respectively.
The busiest equity for the session was UBA with 51.2 million units valued at N1.9 billion, Universal Insurance exchanged 49.6 million units for N25.1 million, C&I Leasing transacted 37.2 million units worth N134.0 million, Dangote Cement traded 34.3 million units worth N11.1 billion, and GTCO sold 17.4 million units valued at N1.0 billion.
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