Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 15.90% in November
**As Food Index Slows to 20.30%
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday night has revealed that in the month of November 2017, the headline inflation slightly dropped to 15.90 percent.
This was 0.01 percent points lower than the rate recorded in October, 15.91 percent, making it the 10th consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year on year inflation since January 2017.
According to the stats office, increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the headline index.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.78 percent in November 2017, 0.02 percent points higher from the rate of 0.76 percent recorded in October. This represents the first rise in month on month inflation following five consecutive months on month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12-month period ending in November 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12-month period was 16.76 percent, showing 0.21 percent point lower from 16.97 percent recorded in October 2017.
Also, the urban inflation rate rose by 16.27 percent (year-on-year) in November from 16.19 percent recorded in October, while the rural inflation rate also eased by 15.59 percent in November from 15.67 percent in October.
On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.85 percent in November, up by 0.03 from 0.82 percent recorded in October, while the rural index rose by 0.724 percent in November, up by 0.009 when compared with 0.715 percent in October.
The NBS added that the corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.26 percent in November. This is less than 17.57 percent reported in October 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in November is 16.29 percent compared to 16.41 percent recorded in October 2017.
Business Post gathered from the data that in the month of November, food index moderated to 20.30 percent (year-on-year), down marginally by 0.01 percent points from the rate recorded in October, 20.31 percent.
On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.88 percent in November, up by 0.03 percent from 0.85 percent recorded in October. This represents the first rise in months on month rise following five consecutive disinflation in month on month inflation since a 2017 high of 2.57 percent in May 2017.
The average annual rate of change of the food sub-index for the 12-month period ending in November 2017 over the previous 12-month average was 19.39 percent, 0.25 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in October, 19.14 percent.
The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereal, milk, cheese, eggs, coffee, tea, cocoa, fish and Oil and fats.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.40 per cent on Monday, July 13, buoyed by buying interest in 11 Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and UBN Property Plc, which offset the profit-taking in Food Concepts Plc, the parent company of Chicken Republic.
11 Plc gained N20.69 to end at N227.64 per share compared with last Friday’s price of N206.95 per share, CSCS Plc grew by N1.83 to N91.48 per unit from N89.65 per unit, and UBN Property Plc added 1 Kobo to sell at N1.81 per share versus N1.80 per share.
On the flip side, Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 24 Kobo to close at N2.45 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N2.69 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation increased by N9.2 billion to N2.587 trillion from N2.578 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 15.33 points to 4,311.67 points from 4,296.34 points.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors surged by 615.9 per cent to 9.1 million units from the previous 1.3 million units, and the value of securities rose by 997.1 per cent to N320.4 million from the preceding session’s N29.2 million, while the number of deals decreased by 12.5 per cent to 28 deals from last Friday’s 32 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units exchanged for N5.2 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira maintained stability against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, July 13, at N1,379.65/$1.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N2.44 to exchange at N1,848.18/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,850.62/£1, and lost 73 Kobo against the Euro to sell at N1,576.39/€1 versus last Friday’s N1,575.66/€1.
At the GTBank fore counter, the Naira declined by N2 to settle at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s rate of N1,386/$1, and at the black market, it traded flat at N1,400/$1.
Market analysts expect the Naira to trade within a relatively stable range, supported by sustained FX inflows and a continued market intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), although persistent underlying FX demand is likely to keep depreciation pressures elevated.
According to Monday’s trading data, interbank FX turnover surged by 21.14 per cent to $86.136 million from $71.044 million at the previous trading session on Friday.
However, interbank deal counts declined to 85 from 87 on Monday, reflecting the absence of pressure from US Dollar payments against local units. Last week, total foreign exchange inflows amounted to $0.97 billion, according to a Coronation Merchant Bank research report.
Analysts reported that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained the largest source of inflows, contributing 30.29% or $0.29 billion, closely followed by Exporters and Importers at 30.14 per cent.
Non-bank corporates accounted for 26.49 per cent or $0.26 billion, while the CBN contributed 6.93 per cent or $0.07 billion. Other sources made up the remaining 5.4 per cent of total inflows.
In the cryptocurrency market, major coins came under pressure following heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase as soon as July, just ahead of key US inflation data and congressional testimony from Chairman Kevin Warsh came into focus.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.2 per cent to $62,627.03, Solana (SOL) dipped by 1.5 per cent to $75.18, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3248, Ripple (XRP) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $1.06, and Cardano (ADA) lost 0.6 per cent to close at $0.1589.
On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 0.5 per cent to $1,784.26, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 0.2 per cent to $0.073, and Binance Coin (BNB) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $569.23, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent jumped to $83 per barrel on Monday after the United States announced a fresh blockade that reignited concerns over energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The international crude benchmark soared by $7.29 or 9.59 per cent to $83.30 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $6.73 or 9.42 per cent to trade at $78.14 a barrel.
US President Donald Trump announced that he would reinstate a blockade on Iran, forcing traders to once again price in the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade, due to begin on Tuesday, will cover Iran’s entire coastline, ports and oil terminals, as well as all vessels regardless of flag.
The US President also said vessels receiving protection while transiting Hormuz would reimburse the country through a 20 per cent charge on cargoes, Reuters reported.
President Trump’s idea would mean that a 20 per cent fee on a supertanker that carries about 2 million barrels of crude at $80 per barrel would be equivalent to around $32 million, or an additional cost of $16 per barrel.
“This is significantly higher than the $1/bbl toll for which Iran has been pushing,” ING’s strategists said.
The proposal was also criticised by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) because international law does not provide for mandatory transit fees through straits used for international navigation. Energy companies have also rejected similar proposals previously advanced by Tehran, arguing that freedom of navigation remains a cornerstone of global maritime trade.
Iran’s top joint military command had earlier said it would not allow the US to intervene in the management of the strait, and any attempt by the US to transit without its authorisation would be confronted.
Analysts now expect countries to work on ways to permanently bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated that expanding pipeline capacity in the Middle East could shield more than 60 per cent of pre-war Gulf oil exports from any future Hormuz disruptions by the end of 2028.
The bank’s base-case forecast assumes pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz will rise by 3.8 million barrels per day by end-2027 and 7.3 million barrels per day cumulatively by end-2028, taking total effective bypass capacity to more than 14 million barrels per day by end-2028.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third straight month, even as crude production rebounds across the Gulf and tanker traffic slowly returns to the Strait of Hormuz.
In its monthly oil market report released Monday, OPEC lowered expected oil demand growth this year to 780,000 barrels per day, down another 190,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. The producer group still expects stronger consumption than many other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, and even raised its demand growth estimate for 2027 by 210,000 barrels per day to 1.94 million barrels per day.
