By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has disclosed that Nigeria’s annual inflation as at October 2016 was now 18.3 percent.
In the report posted on the agency’s website on Monday, it was disclosed that the figure rose from 17.1 percent it was in September 2016.
The reason for this, Business Post gathered, was because of the higher prices for electricity, clothing and food in the country.
The 18.3 percent inflation rate is Nigeria’s highest in more than 11 years and the ninth straight monthly rise.
The agency explained that, “During the month, the highest increases were seen in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels.”
A business analyst in Lagos, Mr Olalekan Adesanya, told Business Post that the latest report shows another sign of the crisis in Africa’s biggest economy.
Nigeria has been struggling with her economy since the inception of the present administration in 2015.
Prices of commodities in the country have skyrocketed, and in some cases, by over 200 percent.
Last week, Minister of Budget and National Planning, Mr Udoma Udo Udoma, revealed that President Muhammadu Buhari would unveil the government’s economic recovery plan next month.
NASD Exchange Closes Last Day of the Week 0.42% Higher
By Adedapo Adesanya
The last trading session of the week on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed on a positive note on Friday by 0.42 per cent.
This was influenced by the gains recorded by Niger Delta Exploration and Production (NDEP) Plc and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc.
NDEP grew during the day by N18 or 10 per cent to close at N198.00 per unit compared to the previous day’s N180.00 per unit, while CSCS Plc rose by 20 kobo or 1.37 per cent to close at N14.80 per unit as against the N14.60 per unit it was previously sold.
At the end of the day’s trading, the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) gained 3.24 points to settle at 768.27 points compared with the earlier day’s 765.03 points.
In the same trend, the bourse’s market capitalisation closed at N1.011 trillion as investors expanded the total value of securities on the platform by N4.27 billion. On Thursday, the market capitalisation stood at N1.007 billion.
At the market, the total volume of shares bought and sold by investors increased by 251.7 per cent to 323,519 units from 91,997 units, the total value of transactions appreciated by 53.1 per cent to N8.9 million from N5.8 million, while the total number of trades went down by 15.4 per cent to 11 deals from 13 deals.
AG Mortgage Bank Plc finished the trading week as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 2.3 billion units worth N1.2 billion, CSCS Plc also retained the second spot with the sale of 674.2 million units valued at N14.1 billion, while Food Concepts Plc was in third place for trading 146.0 million units valued at N126.7 million.
In the same vein, CSCS Plc maintained its position as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 674.2 million units valued at N14.1 billion, VFD Group Plc was in second place with 10.9 million units worth N3.2 billion, while FrieslandCampina WAMCO Nigeria Plc retained the third place with the sale of 9.6 million units valued at N1.2 billion.
Oil Market Jumps 3% on Tighter Supply
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market improved by about 3 per cent on Friday, supported by tighter supply, with the Brent crude futures growing by $3.07 or 2.8 per cent to $113.12 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures expanding by $3.35 or 3.2 per cent to $107.62.
Despite the bullish news on Friday, the black gold notched its second weekly decline on concerns that rising interest rates could push the world economy into recession.
The already tight market was further impacted as crude production dropped 45 per cent in less than a decade, currently averaging 275,000 barrels per day as protests of indigenous nationalities of Ecuador demanding fuel subsidies saw them invade and vandalize at least a dozen of oil fields and risk pipeline supply to the country’s ports.
Indigenous leaders have presented the government of President Guillermo Lasso with a list of 10 demands, including a freeze on national gas prices, greater investments in education and healthcare, and more jobs.
In an unprecedented turn of events, the world’s most-watched oil data report on inventories from the US was not released this week due to a power problem.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) hopes to shed more light on the reasons for the delay next Monday.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s unconditional focus on taming inflation continues to squeeze speculators out of the Brent and WTI futures contracts.
The US Federal Reserve Chair, Mr Jerome Powell, said the central bank’s focus on curbing inflation was “unconditional”, adding to fears about more interest rate hikes.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated tight supplies this year just as demand has been recovering from the COVID pandemic.
Crude has also gained support from the almost total shutdown of output in OPEC member Libya due to unrest.
On Thursday, the Libyan oil minister said the National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman was withholding production data from him, raising doubts over figures issued last week.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, meet on June 30 and are expected to stick to a plan to only slightly accelerate hikes in oil production in July and August.
US energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row in a record 23-month streak of increases, as high crude prices and prodding by the government prompted drillers to return to the wellpad.
Dollar Shortages Strike Again…Nigeria Indexes in Crosshairs
By Lukman Otunuga
Despite oil prices surging to multi-year highs, Nigeria has failed to cash in.
The destructive combination of sub-optimal oil production, poor infrastructure, and fuel subsidies have drained oil revenues that account for roughly 90% of foreign exchange earnings.
Lower oil revenues and falling foreign exchange reserves are forcing Nigeria to ration dollars. The negative impacts continue to be reflected across the economy and local currency. But now the dollar shortages have attracted the attention of MSCI Inc. which is considering downgrading the MSCI Nigeria indexes to the status of a standalone market from frontier markets.
It is worth keeping in mind that a developed market is the highest ranking, followed by emerging markets, frontier markets, and then finally standalone markets at the bottom.
Given the difficulty in repatriating funds from Nigeria, this has placed the MSCI Nigeria Indexes in the crosshairs. Such a negative development may hit sentiment toward the county’s assets at a crucial period where economic growth remains fragile.
To add insult to injury, the NGX All Share Index has gained roughly 20% this year in local currency terms. A blockbuster performance when compared to the MSCI Emerging market Index which is down roughly -19%.
In other news, the Naira was trading around N419 versus the dollar on the official spot rate and has weakened only 1.3% year-to-date. However, on the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) segment of the FX, the Naira ended Thursday at N620 versus the dollar and N602 on the black market. Nigeria still faces the issue of multiple exchanges but this will be a discussion for another time.
Lukman Otunuga is a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
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