Economy
Official FX Rate to Hit N800/$1 Soon—EIU
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will revert to heavier management of the exchange rate in late 2023 to tame rapid price rises, as evidence shows that the rates are widening across several windows after a float of the currency in June.
Business Post reported that the Naira closed at N775.76/$1 at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window last Friday, while it sold at an average of N867 to a Dollar at the parallel market.
The EIU, which is an arm of London-based The Economist Magazine, stated in its Country Report on Nigeria, released over the weekend, that the wide gap between the I&E window and the parallel market before the FX unification is making a return due to illiquidity.
According to the EIU, “The new exchange rate is classed by the CBN as a ‘managed float’, but there are inconsistencies in application to a more liberal currency regime as foreign-exchange access restrictions still apply to an array of imports. This will unnerve foreign investors, and a backlog of FX orders the CBN failed to clear before opening up the market, and deeply negative real interest rates will keep liquidity tight.
“Along with high and rising inflation, the naira will be under significant pressure in the near term. The CBN lacks experience in conducting monetary policy under a float, and the need to control rapidly increasing inflation will become more acute over time.
“Our forecast is finely balanced, but we expect a return to heavier exchange-rate management from the second half of 2023 as the naira slides beyond N800:US$1, from N770:US$1 in early July.
“The CBN (according to official data) has the wherewithal to increase market intervention; 98 per cent of foreign reserves are liquid, and import cover is projected at 6 to 8 months in 2023. Based on this, we expect the currency to depreciate at a slower rate than fundamentals would imply over the medium to long run, given structurally high inflation.
“The average rate is forecast at N815:US$1 in 2024, sliding to N1,018:US$1 by end-2027, with a spread of 10-15 per cent against the black-market over the period.”
It also noted that rapid increases in inflation were expected from June 2023 as the price effects of market reforms transmit immediately into the system, even as it anticipated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would ramp up a monetary tightening cycle that began in early 2022, starting with the next meeting in late July.
“Interest-rate rises totalling 500 basis points are expected before end-2023, meaning 1,300 basis points will have been added since the cycle began and a peak rate of 23.5% – the highest level since 1993. However, this forecast is caveated with risks; the MPC attaches a large weight to economic growth in its decision-making formula, Mr Tinubu is opposed to high-interest rates, and the CBN’s independence is questionable.
“The small size of the financial sector (the private-sector credit/GDP ratio is just 22%) blunts the effectiveness of interest rates in countering inflation. We forecast that the CBN will maintain a tight stance until 2025, by which point disinflation and sustained monetary easing in advanced markets will justify aggressive interest-rate cuts to 14 per cent by 2026.
“Inflation will at all times be above the nine per cent target ceiling, but the CBN is expected to prioritise stimulus over its price stability mandate,” it added.
The EIU also forecast that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will slow to 2.3 per cent in 2023 and 2.5 per cent in 2024, dragged down by rapidly rising inflation and a newly intensified phase of monetary tightening.
“Consumers and businesses will fail to adapt, causing domestic demand to contract for a second and third year running in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In a country with 2.5 per cent population growth, this marks an unusually long stretch of decline.
“Headline growth will be kept positive by net exports. Oil export volumes are expected to increase as security in the Niger Delta improves, complemented by the replacement of fuel and chemical imports in 2024 as a new refinery ramp up production,” it added.
In terms of the external sector, it noted that devaluation of the naira would support a widening of the current-account surplus in 2023 to 2.6 per cent of GDP, as import demand was compressed.
It added that without adequate FX supply and the Naira depreciating, petrol prices without subsidy could only go higher, adding that the impending protest and strike by organised labour may further worsen an already dire situation.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The domestic supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, from the Dangote Refinery increased by 64.4 percent in December 2025, contributing to an enhancement in Nigeria’s overall petrol availability.
This is according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in its December 2025 Factsheet Report released on Thursday.
The downstream regulatory agency revealed that the private refinery raised its domestic petrol supply from 19.47 million litres per day in November 2025 to an average of 32.012 million litres per day in December, as it quelled any probable fuel scarcity associated with the festive month.
The report attributed the improvement to more substantial capacity utilisation at the Lagos-based oil facility, which reached a peak of 71 per cent in December.
The increased output from Dangote Refinery contributed to a rise in Nigeria’s total daily domestic PMS supply to 74.2 million litres in December, up from 71.5 million litres per day recorded in November.
The authority also reported a sharp increase in petrol consumption, rising to 63.7 million litres per day in December 2025, up from 52.9 million litres per day in the previous month.
In contrast, the domestic supply of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) known as diesel declined to 17.9 million litres per day in December from 20.4 million litres per day in November, even as daily diesel consumption increased to 16.4 million litres per day from 15.4 million litres per day.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply recorded modest growth during the period, rising to 5.2 metric tonnes per day in December from 5.0 metric tonnes per day in November.
Despite the gains recorded by Dangote Refinery and modular refineries, the NMDPRA disclosed that Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries recorded zero production in December.
It said the Port Harcourt Refinery remained shut down, though evacuation of diesel produced before May 24, 2025, averaged 0.247 million litres per day. The Warri and Kaduna refineries also remained shut down throughout the period.
On modular refineries, the report said Waltersmith Refinery (Train 2 with 5,000 barrels per day) completed pre-commissioning in December, with hydrocarbon introduction expected in January 2026. The refinery recorded an average capacity utilisation of 63.24 per cent and an average AGO supply of 0.051 million litres per day
Edo Refinery posted an average capacity utilisation of 85.43 per cent with AGO supply of 0.052 million litres per day, while Aradel recorded 53.89 per cent utilisation and supplied an average of 0.289 million litres per day of AGO.
Total AGO supply from the three modular refineries averaged 0.392 million litres per day, with other products including naphtha, heavy hydrocarbon kerosene (HHK), fuel oil, and marine diesel oil (MDO).
The report listed Nigeria’s 2025 daily consumption benchmarks as 50 million litres per day for petrol, 14 million litres per day for diesel, 3 million litres per day for aviation fuel (ATK), and 3,900 metric tonnes per day for cooking gas.
Actual daily truck-out consumption in December stood at 63.7 million litres per day for petrol, 16.4 million litres per day for diesel, 2.7 million litres per day for ATK and 4,380 metric tonnes per day for cooking gas.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has introduced a comprehensive revision of minimum capital requirements for nearly all capital market operators, marking the most significant overhaul since 2015.
The changes, outlined in a circular issued on January 16, 2026, obtained from its website on Friday, replace the previous regime. Operators have been given until June 30, 2027, to comply.
The SEC stated that the reforms aim to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, discourage undercapitalised operators, and align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities.
According to the circular, “The revised framework applies to brokers, dealers, fund managers, issuing houses, fintech firms, digital asset operators, and market infrastructure providers.”
Some of the key highlights of the new reforms include increment of minimum capital for brokers from N200 million to N600 million while for dealers, it was raised to N1 billion from N100 million.
For broker-dealers, they are to get N2 billion instead of the previous N300 million, reflecting multi-role exposure across trading, execution, and margin lending.
The agency said fund and portfolio managers with assets above N20 billion must hold N5 billion, while mid-tier managers must maintain N2 billion with private equity and venture capital firms to have N500 million and N200 million, respectively.
There was also dynamic rule as firms managing assets above N100 billion must hold at least 10 per cent of assets under management as capital.
“Digital asset firms, previously in a regulatory grey area, are now fully covered: digital exchanges and custodians must maintain N2 billion each, while tokenisation platforms and intermediaries face thresholds of N500 million to N1 billion. Robo-advisers must hold N100 million.
“Other segments are also affected: issuing houses offering full underwriting services must hold N7 billion, advisory-only firms N2 billion, registrars N2.5 billion, trustees N2 billion, underwriters N5 billion, and individual investment advisers N10 million. Market infrastructure providers carry some of the highest obligations, with composite exchanges and central counterparties required to maintain N10 billion each, and clearinghouses N5 billion,” the SEC added.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The founder and chief executive of Austin Laz and Company Plc, Mr Asimonye Austin Lazarus Azubuike, has sold off about 52.24 million shares of the organisation.
The stocks were offloaded in 11 tranches at an average price of N4.36 per unit, amounting to about N227.8 million.
The transactions occurred between December 2025 and January 2026, according to a notice filed by the company to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday.
Business Post reports that Austin Laz is known for producing ice block machines, aluminium roofing, thermoplastics coolers, PVC windows and doors, ice cream machines, and disposable plates.
The firm evolved from refrigeration sales to diverse manufacturing since its incorporation in 1982 in Benin City, Edo State, though facing recent operational halts.
According to the statement signed by company secretary, Ifeanyi Offor & Associates, Mr Azubuike first sold 1.5 million units of the equities at N2.42, and then offloaded 2.4 million units at N2.65, and 2.0 million units at N2.65.
In another tranche, he sold another 2.0 million units at a unit price of N2.91, and then 5.0 million units at N3.52, as well as about 4.5 million at N3.87 per share.
It was further disclosed that the owner of the company also sold 9.0 million shares at N4.25, and offloaded another 368,411 units at N4.66, then in another transaction sold about 6.9 million units at N4.67.
In the last two transactions he carried out, Mr Azubuike first traded 10.0 million units equities at N5.13, with the last being 8.5 million stocks sold at N5.64 per unit.
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