Economy
Official FX Rate to Hit N800/$1 Soon—EIU
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will revert to heavier management of the exchange rate in late 2023 to tame rapid price rises, as evidence shows that the rates are widening across several windows after a float of the currency in June.
Business Post reported that the Naira closed at N775.76/$1 at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window last Friday, while it sold at an average of N867 to a Dollar at the parallel market.
The EIU, which is an arm of London-based The Economist Magazine, stated in its Country Report on Nigeria, released over the weekend, that the wide gap between the I&E window and the parallel market before the FX unification is making a return due to illiquidity.
According to the EIU, “The new exchange rate is classed by the CBN as a ‘managed float’, but there are inconsistencies in application to a more liberal currency regime as foreign-exchange access restrictions still apply to an array of imports. This will unnerve foreign investors, and a backlog of FX orders the CBN failed to clear before opening up the market, and deeply negative real interest rates will keep liquidity tight.
“Along with high and rising inflation, the naira will be under significant pressure in the near term. The CBN lacks experience in conducting monetary policy under a float, and the need to control rapidly increasing inflation will become more acute over time.
“Our forecast is finely balanced, but we expect a return to heavier exchange-rate management from the second half of 2023 as the naira slides beyond N800:US$1, from N770:US$1 in early July.
“The CBN (according to official data) has the wherewithal to increase market intervention; 98 per cent of foreign reserves are liquid, and import cover is projected at 6 to 8 months in 2023. Based on this, we expect the currency to depreciate at a slower rate than fundamentals would imply over the medium to long run, given structurally high inflation.
“The average rate is forecast at N815:US$1 in 2024, sliding to N1,018:US$1 by end-2027, with a spread of 10-15 per cent against the black-market over the period.”
It also noted that rapid increases in inflation were expected from June 2023 as the price effects of market reforms transmit immediately into the system, even as it anticipated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would ramp up a monetary tightening cycle that began in early 2022, starting with the next meeting in late July.
“Interest-rate rises totalling 500 basis points are expected before end-2023, meaning 1,300 basis points will have been added since the cycle began and a peak rate of 23.5% – the highest level since 1993. However, this forecast is caveated with risks; the MPC attaches a large weight to economic growth in its decision-making formula, Mr Tinubu is opposed to high-interest rates, and the CBN’s independence is questionable.
“The small size of the financial sector (the private-sector credit/GDP ratio is just 22%) blunts the effectiveness of interest rates in countering inflation. We forecast that the CBN will maintain a tight stance until 2025, by which point disinflation and sustained monetary easing in advanced markets will justify aggressive interest-rate cuts to 14 per cent by 2026.
“Inflation will at all times be above the nine per cent target ceiling, but the CBN is expected to prioritise stimulus over its price stability mandate,” it added.
The EIU also forecast that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will slow to 2.3 per cent in 2023 and 2.5 per cent in 2024, dragged down by rapidly rising inflation and a newly intensified phase of monetary tightening.
“Consumers and businesses will fail to adapt, causing domestic demand to contract for a second and third year running in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In a country with 2.5 per cent population growth, this marks an unusually long stretch of decline.
“Headline growth will be kept positive by net exports. Oil export volumes are expected to increase as security in the Niger Delta improves, complemented by the replacement of fuel and chemical imports in 2024 as a new refinery ramp up production,” it added.
In terms of the external sector, it noted that devaluation of the naira would support a widening of the current-account surplus in 2023 to 2.6 per cent of GDP, as import demand was compressed.
It added that without adequate FX supply and the Naira depreciating, petrol prices without subsidy could only go higher, adding that the impending protest and strike by organised labour may further worsen an already dire situation.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.69 per cent appreciation on Monday, January 13, as investors showed renewed interests in unlisted securities.
During the trading session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 21.07 points to wrap the session at 3,095.00 points compared with the 3,073.93 points recorded in the previous session.
In the same vein, the value of the local alternative stock exchange went up by N7.22 billion to close at N1.061 trillion compared with last Friday’s N1.051 trillion.
Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc recorded a growth of N3.78 to close at N42.00 per share versus N38.22 per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc improved by 20 Kobo to end at N2.35 per unit versus the preceding closing rate of N2.15 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to finish at 25 Kobo per share compared with the previous session’s 24 Kobo per share.
Conversely, Geo-Fluids Plc lost 29 Kobo to quote at N4.56 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N4.85 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 75 kobo to end the session at N15.50 per share versus the preceding closing rate of N16.25 per share.
During the session, the volume of securities traded decreased by 27.2 per cent to 3.1 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of securities slumped by 81.5 per cent to N3.2 million from N17.2 million, and the number of deals expanded by 57.9 per cent to 30 deals from 19 deals.
At the close of trades, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and IGI Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.
Also, IGI Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a 0.38 per cent or N5.86 depreciation on the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Monday, January 13 to close at N1,548.89/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,543.03/$1.
The local currency weakened further in the official market yesterday as the deadline to cut off Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) built to enhance transparency in the FX system looms.
Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December opened a 42-day window to allow BDCs to buy FX worth $25,000 per week from the spot market.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market on Monday by N11.87 to trade at N1,877.43/£1 compared with last Friday’s N1,889.29/£1 and against the Euro, it improved its value by N4.94 to close at N1,578.87/€1, in contrast to the previous trading day’s N1,583.81/€1.
A look at the parallel market indicated that the Nigerian Naira slumped against the greenback yesterday by N5 to sell at N1,655/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,650/$1.
In the cryptocurrency market, large positive outcomes came even as risk assets weighed the possibility of US Federal Reserve rate cuts in the wake of Friday’s hotter-than-expected US jobs report.
The biggest gainer was recorded by Dogecoin (DOGE) as it rose by 3.9 per cent to sell at $0.3422, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 0.9 per cent to trade at $94,843.98, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 0.8 per cent to sell for $687.84, and Solana (SOL) recorded a 0.8 per cent growth to quote at $185.24.
Further, Ripple (XRP) increased its value by 0.7 per cent to close at $2.53, and Cardano jumped by 0.3 per cent to settle at $0.9469.
On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.9 per cent to finish at $3,159.52, and Litecoin (LTC) went down by 0.9 per cent to close at $98.68, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose on Monday as Chinese and Indian buyers sought new suppliers after the administration of President Joe Biden of the United States imposed toughest sanctions yet on Russian energy.
Last Friday, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that traded oil as part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers. The move is expected to cost Russia billions of Dollars per month.
This pushed the price of Brent higher by $1.25 or 1.6 per cent yesterday to $81.01 per barrel and raised the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by $2.25 or 2.9 per cent to $78.82 a barrel.
As a result, Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking alternative fuel supplies as they adapt to the severe sanctions on Russian producers and tankers that are designed to curb the revenues of the world’s second-largest oil exporter.
The large sanction gives Ukraine and the US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, leverage to reach a deal for peace in the almost three years war.
Market analysts note that these sanctions have the potential to take as much as 700,000 barrels per day of supply off the market, which would erase the surplus that we are expecting for this year.
On its part, Goldman Sachs estimated that vessels targeted by the new sanctions transported 1.7 million barrels per day of oil in 2024, or 25 per cent of Russia’s exports. The bank is increasingly expecting its projection for a Brent range of $70-$85 to trade.
The Vladimir Putin-led government said the sanctions risked destabilising global markets, and Russia would seek to counter them.
Many of the tankers named have been used to ship oil to India and China after previous Western sanctions. A price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some of the ships have also moved oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.
Also, six European Union countries called on the European Commission to lower the price cap put on Russian oil by G7 countries, arguing it would reduce Russia’s revenue to continue the war while not causing a market shock.
However, weaker demand from major oil buyers, China, could have an impact on the tighter supply as data showed that China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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