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Economy

Official FX Rate to Hit N800/$1 Soon—EIU

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Nigeria's FX earnings

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will revert to heavier management of the exchange rate in late 2023 to tame rapid price rises, as evidence shows that the rates are widening across several windows after a float of the currency in June.

Business Post reported that the Naira closed at N775.76/$1 at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window last Friday, while it sold at an average of N867 to a Dollar at the parallel market.

The EIU, which is an arm of London-based The Economist Magazine, stated in its Country Report on Nigeria, released over the weekend, that the wide gap between the I&E window and the parallel market before the FX unification is making a return due to illiquidity.

According to the EIU, “The new exchange rate is classed by the CBN as a ‘managed float’, but there are inconsistencies in application to a more liberal currency regime as foreign-exchange access restrictions still apply to an array of imports. This will unnerve foreign investors, and a backlog of FX orders the CBN failed to clear before opening up the market, and deeply negative real interest rates will keep liquidity tight.

“Along with high and rising inflation, the naira will be under significant pressure in the near term. The CBN lacks experience in conducting monetary policy under a float, and the need to control rapidly increasing inflation will become more acute over time.

“Our forecast is finely balanced, but we expect a return to heavier exchange-rate management from the second half of 2023 as the naira slides beyond N800:US$1, from N770:US$1 in early July.

“The CBN (according to official data) has the wherewithal to increase market intervention; 98 per cent of foreign reserves are liquid, and import cover is projected at 6 to 8 months in 2023. Based on this, we expect the currency to depreciate at a slower rate than fundamentals would imply over the medium to long run, given structurally high inflation.

“The average rate is forecast at N815:US$1 in 2024, sliding to N1,018:US$1 by end-2027, with a spread of 10-15 per cent against the black-market over the period.”

It also noted that rapid increases in inflation were expected from June 2023 as the price effects of market reforms transmit immediately into the system, even as it anticipated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would ramp up a monetary tightening cycle that began in early 2022, starting with the next meeting in late July.

“Interest-rate rises totalling 500 basis points are expected before end-2023, meaning 1,300 basis points will have been added since the cycle began and a peak rate of 23.5% – the highest level since 1993. However, this forecast is caveated with risks; the MPC attaches a large weight to economic growth in its decision-making formula, Mr Tinubu is opposed to high-interest rates, and the CBN’s independence is questionable.

“The small size of the financial sector (the private-sector credit/GDP ratio is just 22%) blunts the effectiveness of interest rates in countering inflation. We forecast that the CBN will maintain a tight stance until 2025, by which point disinflation and sustained monetary easing in advanced markets will justify aggressive interest-rate cuts to 14 per cent by 2026.

“Inflation will at all times be above the nine per cent target ceiling, but the CBN is expected to prioritise stimulus over its price stability mandate,” it added.

The EIU also forecast that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will slow to 2.3 per cent in 2023 and 2.5 per cent in 2024, dragged down by rapidly rising inflation and a newly intensified phase of monetary tightening.

“Consumers and businesses will fail to adapt, causing domestic demand to contract for a second and third year running in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In a country with 2.5 per cent population growth, this marks an unusually long stretch of decline.

“Headline growth will be kept positive by net exports. Oil export volumes are expected to increase as security in the Niger Delta improves, complemented by the replacement of fuel and chemical imports in 2024 as a new refinery ramp up production,” it added.

In terms of the external sector, it noted that devaluation of the naira would support a widening of the current-account surplus in 2023 to 2.6 per cent of GDP, as import demand was compressed.

It added that without adequate FX supply and the Naira depreciating, petrol prices without subsidy could only go higher, adding that the impending protest and strike by organised labour may further worsen an already dire situation.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

4.964 billion Shares Worth N207.5bn Exchange Hands in 235,966 deals in Four Days

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nigerian shares

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited opened its doors to market participants in four days last week as a result of a public holiday observed on Friday, June 12, for 2026 Democracy Day in the country.

In the week, investors bought and sold 4.964 billion shares worth N207.521 billion in 235,966 deals, as against the 3.966 billion shares valued at N175.659 billion that exchanged hands in 343,587 deals a week earlier.

Analysis showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.116 billion shares valued at N84.607 billion in 96,165 deals, contributing 82.92 per cent and 40.77 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The services sector transacted 232.479 million shares worth N4.955 billion in 17,614 deals, while the industrial goods segment exchanged 144.988 million shares worth N39.077 billion in 24,775 deals.

Sterling Holdings, FCMB, and Access Holdings were the most traded stocks with 2.883 billion units sold for N36.188 billion in 15,533 deals, accounting for 58.09 per cent and 17.44 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively.

A total of 40 equities appreciated in the week versus 23 equities in the previous week, 53 equities depreciated versus 65 equities a week earlier, and 53 equities remained unchanged versus 58 equities in the preceding week.

ABC Transport was the best-performing equity for the week after it gained 25.60 per cent to trade at N7.80, Consolidated Hallmark appreciated by 23.13 per cent to N8.25, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 21.93 per cent to N11.40, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank grew by 20.32 per cent to N11.25, and Austin Laz soared by 15.16 per cent to N4.33.

The worst-performing equity last week was Fidson Healthcare because of its 25.86 per cent loss, closing at N101.20. Neimeth declined by 19.14 per cent to N8.55, Union Homes REIT shed 17.36 per cent to close at N70.00, SUNU Assurances slipped by 11.38 per cent to N3.97, and Unilever Nigeria dropped 10.26 per cent to trade at N140.00.

As for the index movement, the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation chalked up 0.88 per cent each to settle at 244,738.74 points and N156.970 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the pension, AFR Bank Value, MERI Growth, MERI Value, consumer goods, Lotus II, industrial goods, sovereign bond and commodity indices, which fell by 0.03 per cent, 1.20 per cent, 0.21 per cent, 1.61 per cent, 0.54 per cent, 0.51 per cent, 1.00 per cent, 2.04 per cent and 0.34 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Brent Falls to $87 Per Barrel on Expected US-Iran Peace Deal

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Brent crude futures

By Adedapo Adesanya

Brent crude prices fell by $3.05 or 3.37 per cent to $87.33 per barrel on Friday, the lowest level since early March, triggered by expectations of an imminent ‌peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $84.88 a barrel after it gave up $2.83 or 3.23 per cent. It was its lowest level since April 17.

Reuters reported that a memorandum between the US and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, citing sources.

The sources indicate that the US would immediately begin releasing billions of Dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.

The proposals also include discussion of possible war reparations for Iran and dropping longstanding US demands for limits on Iran’s missile program, the sources were quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that a memorandum of understanding had not yet been signed and could still change.

He also said that management of the Strait of Hormuz would not ⁠return to the pre-war era, that sovereignty over the strait belonged to ⁠Iran and Oman, and that Iran would secure safe ⁠passage for ships through it.

US President Donald Trump called off threatened air strikes against Iran on Thursday, while it was reported that final negotiations on the memorandum would focus on nuclear and economic issues but would exclude discussions about Iran’s missile programme.

On Thursday, Iran ‌announced ⁠a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through.

Traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has been extremely limited as a result of the war.

The US military, however, said on social media that commercial ships continued to transit the waterway.

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel ⁠on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling of OECD commercial oil stocks and a security premium for disruptions.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday lowered its forecast for 2026 world oil demand growth to 970,000 barrels per day ⁠from a previous 1.17 million barrels per day, its second straight downward revision.

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Economy

Standard Bank Describes Dangote Refinery as Transformational Industrial Project

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standard bank dangote refinery

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Lagos-based Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been described by Standard Bank Group as a transformational industrial project with far-reaching implications for Nigeria and Africa.

The company, which is Africa’s largest financial institution, gave this description after a tour of the facility recently.

Standard Bank, the parent company of Stanbic IBTC Holdings, has promised to support the planned listing of the 650,000 barrels per day refinery and expressed readiness to finance future expansion projects across the continent.

The chief executive of the lender, Mr Sim Tshabalala, said, “We are here because the Dangote Group is a large and important global player and a significant force on the African continent.”

“Standard Bank is the largest financial institution in Africa, and we have partnered with Dangote on a variety of initiatives. We are here to lend support, to see this magnificent refinery and to discuss Vision 2030 and how we can continue supporting the Group’s growth ambitions,” he added.

Mr Tshabalala disclosed that Standard Bank intends to play a leading role in the refinery’s planned Initial Public Offering and future growth initiatives.

“As Dangote lists, there is an IPO coming up, and we are a leading player in that process,” he said, adding that, “As the group continues to expand in Nigeria and across Africa, there will be opportunities for financial advisory services and balance sheet support, and we stand ready to provide both.”

He further described the refinery as “a wonder of the world,” noting that its impact is already being felt through stronger foreign exchange earnings, improved balance-of-payments performance and enhanced energy security.

“This is a wonder to behold. It is massive, productive and transformative. It is already making a significant contribution to Nigeria’s economy through its impact on foreign reserves, the balance of payments and the lives of ordinary Nigerians,” he said.

The Group Vice President for Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Devakumar Edwin, said the visit represented a significant milestone in a partnership that began during the refinery’s construction phase.

“The bank visited us during construction and understood the scale of what we were building,” Mr Edwin said. “Today, the refinery is fully operational, and they can see what their support has helped to create. It is like nurturing a tree and eventually seeing it bear fruit.”

He added that both organisations are exploring opportunities to deepen collaboration as Dangote expands its industrial footprint across Africa.

Also speaking, the chief executive of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Mr David Bird, said the visit highlighted the importance of long-term partnerships in delivering large-scale industrial projects.

“Standard Bank has been one of our strongest supporters throughout the history of the refinery and the broader Dangote Group.

“This visit was an opportunity to demonstrate what that support has enabled. Seeing is believing, and it allows our partners to appreciate the scale of what has been achieved,” Mr Bird stated.

The visit also coincided with a major operational milestone for the refinery, which has now exceeded its original design capacity.

Mr Bird disclosed that the refinery recently completed performance test runs at 700,000 barrels per day, above its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

“We have always believed there was engineering flexibility built into the design,” he said. “Achieving sustained production of 700,000 barrels per day is a testament to the technical capability of our people and the strength of the systems we have built.”

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