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Oil Falls Amid Middle East Tensions, Disruption Concerns

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global oil demand

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil settled slightly lower on Friday but recorded a weekly gain as Middle East tensions and disruptions to crude output offset concerns about the Chinese and global economies.

Brent futures lost 54 cents during the session to sell at $78.56 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 67 cents to settle at $73.41 per barrel.

For the week, Brent gained about 0.5 per cent while the US benchmark rose over 1 per cent.

In China, slower-than-expected economic growth in the fourth quarter raised doubts about forecasts that demand there will drive global oil growth in 2024.

China’s economy in the fourth quarter expanded by 5.2 per cent year-on-year, below analysts’ expectations, and this raised questions about previous forecasts that Chinese demand will fuel global oil growth in 2024.

Tensions in the Middle East offered support as geopolitical risks boosted prices for the week.

On Friday, tensions escalated in Gaza as Israeli forces pushed south against Hamas militants, while earlier in the week, the US launched new strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles aimed at the Red Sea.

Although conflict in the Middle East has not shut down any oil production, supply outages continued in Libya over protests.

In the US, about 30 per cent of oil output in North Dakota, the country’s third largest producing state, remained shut down due to extreme cold.

This may worsen, as the state regulator said on Friday that it may take a month before crude oil production in the state returns to normal.

Extreme weather has eaten into crude oil production in North Dakota to the tune of hundreds of thousands of barrels so far, with the cold weather creating power outages and shutting down oil refineries.

It has essentially cut crude oil production in North Dakota by half, cutting out 700,000 barrels per day from its typical 1.24 million barrels per day of oil production.

The North Dakota Pipeline Authority said on Friday that production was now down from 350,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day for oil.

The tightening supply and temporary oil and gas production curtailments will come as a welcome relief for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which looks to be struggling to live up to its oil production cut promises for January.

Meanwhile, the number of oil rigs operating in the US, an early indicator of production, fell by two to 497 this week, Baker Hughes said on Friday.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Secure Electronic Technology, 15 Others Lift Nigerian Exchange by 0.15%

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Secure Electronic Technology

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited appreciated by 0.15 per cent on Tuesday, though weak investor sentiment remained as market participants watch happenings in the global economy.

During the trading session, the banking index went up by 1.89 per cent due to buying interest and the energy industry improved by 0.04 per cent.

However, the insurance sector went down by 4.07 per cent as a result of sustained selling pressure, as the consumer goods shrank by 0.16 per cent, and the industrial goods space tumbled by 0.11 per cent, with the commodity sector closing flat.

At the close of transactions, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 159.86 points to 104,376.73 points from 104,216.87 points and the market capitalisation grew by N100 billion to N65.589 trillion from N65.489 trillion.

Secure Electronic Technology ended as the best-performing equity after it gained 8.89 per cent to 49 Kobo, Abbey Mortgage Bank grew by 8.35 per cent to N5.58, Sterling Holdings rose by 6.85 per cent to N5.15, VFD Group jumped by 5.26 per cent to N66.00, and Mutual Benefits improved by 4.55 per cent to 92 Kobo.

On the flip side, UH REIT finished the session as the worst-performing equity after it shed 9.95 per cent to trade at N46.15, NAHCO lost 9.94 per cent to settle at N62.95, NEM Insurance depreciated by 9.92 per cent to quote at N11.80, Lasaco Assurance dropped 9.86 per cent to sell for N1.92, and Royal Exchange slipped by 9.78 per cent to 83 Kobo.

Business Post reports that the bourse ended the day with 16 price gainers and 42 price losers, implying a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.

Yesterday, Customs Street recorded the trading of 460.6 million shares worth N10.1 billion in 14,528 deals compared with the 444.1 million shares valued at N11.2 billion on Monday, representing a growth in the volume of transactions by 3.72 per cent, and a decline in the value of trades and the number of deals by 9.82 per cent and 7.41 per cent, respectively.

The busiest stock on Tuesday was Access Holdings, which exchanged 56.5 million units valued at N1.2 billion, GTCO traded 51.6 million units worth N3.4 billion, Fidelity Bank transacted 24.1 million units for N431.6 million, FCMB sold 23.4 million units worth N208.1 million, and United Capital traded 23.3 million units valued at N319.9 million.

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Economy

Brent Falls to $62 Per Barrel as Trade War Escalates

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The value of Brent crude shrank by 2.16 per cent or $1.39 to $62.82 per barrel on Tuesday as investors smell an increasing likelihood of a recession due to the escalating trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest economies.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures went down by 1.85 per cent or $1.12 to $59.58 per barrel as the American government plans to impose a 104 per cent tariff on China from Wednesday, a White House official said.

This is an addition of 50 per cent more to tariffs after China failed to lift its retaliatory tariffs on US goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday set by President Donald Trump.

China vowed not to bow to what it called US blackmail after President Trump threatened the additional 50 per cent tariff on Chinese goods if the country did not lift its 34 per cent retaliatory tariff.

China’s Commerce Ministry said the country would fight to the end, boosting fears about a contraction of the global economy and likely recession.

Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative said that China has not indicated it wants to work toward trade reciprocity.

The European Union, too, is readying a full spectrum of countermeasures, including potentially taxing Silicon Valley giants.

Other major American trading partners are exacting pressure in other ways as Canada matched US auto tariffs and launched an advertising campaign across the border against President Trump’s trade policy.

This has led analysts to reduce their price forecasts with Goldman Sachs forecasting that Brent and WTI crude prices would be at $62 and $58 a barrel, respectively, by December 2025, and at $55 and $51, respectively, a year after that, under different scenarios.

Meanwhile, US crude and distillate inventories fell while gasoline (petrol) stocks rose last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended April 4, gasoline inventories rose by 210,000 barrels and distillate stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels, the API said.

Official weekly oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due later on Wednesday.

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Economy

Trump’s Tariffs: US Faults Nigeria’s Import Ban on Beef, Poultry, Juice, Others

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Orange Fruit Juice

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United States has lamented Nigeria’s import ban on 25 different products, particularly in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods, as it rationalised the recent decision to slap a 14 per cent retaliatory tariff.

The United States Trade Representative, in a statement on Monday posted on its X platform, said Nigeria’s restrictions on items like beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, and spirits limit US market access and reduce export opportunities.

“These policies create significant trade barriers that lead to lost revenue for US businesses looking to expand in the Nigerian market,” it wrote.

Last week, the administration of President Donald Trump imposed various tariffs ranging between 10 per cent and 65 per cent on different countries across the world, including Nigeria which got a 14 per cent tariff on its exports to the US.

In response, the Nigerian Minister of Trade, Industry, and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would take a pragmatic approach and will boost non-oil exports to deal with the drawbacks from the US move.

She also said Nigeria will be willing to negotiate and will be speaking with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on the way forward.

On his part, the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, said that the Economic Management Team (EMT) would meet to assess the likely impact of the 14 per cent tariff on goods exported from Nigeria to the US.

He said the EMT will afterwards, make recommendations to cushion its impact on the nation’s economy.

The Minister also said the federal government will boost non-revenue as a means of cushioning the adverse effects to trade tariffs imposed on countries by President Trump.

Mr Edun also assured that while the adverse effect on Nigeria will be through an oil price plunge, the government is intensifying efforts to ramp up oil production and boost non-oil revenues.

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