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Economy

Oil Futures Tumble Over Fresh Lockdowns, US-China Spat

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crude oil futures

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices reversed by 1 per cent on Monday on the back of surging coronavirus cases and heightened tensions between the United States and China.

During the session, the price of the Brent crude reduced by 1.24 per cent or 62 cents to sell at $48.63 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude tumbled by 1.38 per cent or 64 cents to trade at $45.60 per barrel.

A surge in coronavirus cases in some key economies has forced a series of renewed lockdowns, including strict new measures in the US state of California, Germany and South Korea.

Most parts of California are under a new strict lockdown as the virus continues to surge across the country.

The stay-at-home order affects around 85 per cent of the state’s 40 million people. It will be in place for at least three weeks and cover the Christmas holiday.

The country has seen a sharp rise in cases and COVID-19-related deaths in recent weeks, a surge that could be partly due to last month’s Thanksgiving holiday where millions of Americans travelled around the US.

Also in Germany, its Bavaria region announced tougher coronavirus rules, including local curfews and partial closure of schools on Sunday as case numbers remained high across the country despite five weeks of national restrictions while in South Korea, the Asian country raised its COVID-19 alert as there are concerns about rising numbers in hospitals.

These, coupled with a fresh spat between the US and China, also contributed to the bearish mood at the market on Monday.

Fresh reports indicated that the US was preparing to impose sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong.

In recent months, the US-China relations have been out of the headlines, allowing investors to focus on other factors like the US presidential election and coronavirus.

If the American government imposes additional sanctions on Chinese officials before Mr Joe Biden, the president-elect, takes office, his options on stabilizing relations with the world’s second economy will be even more limited.

Analysts noted that the negative impact from new sanctions may be limited as vaccine optimism continues to support markets.

Last Wednesday, the UK became the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine and will be available from this week.

Other optimism included OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, agreeing to increase output slightly from January but continue the bulk of existing supply curbs.

Business Post had reported last week that the 23 country alliance agreed to taper the cuts by 500,000 barrels per day in January and then decide the future trajectory on a monthly basis.

Countries that overproduced in previous months were given until the end of March to make compensatory cuts, which equates to an extension of three months.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Investors Eye Investment Opportunities in Dangote Refinery

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South African investors dangote refinery

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is already attracting interest from South African investors and others.

The leadership of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF), alongside the Public Investment Corporation and Alterra Capital Partners, were recently at the Lagos-based facility.

The chairperson of GEPF, Mr Frans Baleni, said that the refinery stands as evidence that Africa can execute transformational infrastructure projects when backed by visionary leadership, long-term investment and strong technical expertise.

According to him, the significance of the project extends well beyond Nigeria’s borders, noting that it should reshape how Africa thinks about itself.

“The Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals Complex is a powerful demonstration that, with visionary leadership and long-term capital, that perception no longer holds. This is the kind of African-led industrial scale that institutional investors on this continent should be backing,” he said.

Also speaking, the chief executive of PIC, Mr Patrick Dlamini, described the refinery as one of the most transformative industrial projects undertaken on the continent, saying it is reshaping global perceptions about Africa’s industrial capabilities and economic potential.

He said PIC, which manages about $230 billion in assets largely on behalf of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund, is actively seeking long-term partnerships aligned with infrastructure development, industrialisation and economic transformation across Africa.

“There is real strategic alignment between Dangote’s industrial agenda and how we are positioning our portfolio, and we look forward to exploring meaningful avenues for collaboration,” he stated.

While receiving his visitors, the chief executive of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, said the proposed listing is designed to democratise wealth creation and give Africans direct access to participate in the continent’s industrial transformation.

“We are opening the doors for investors to participate directly in Africa’s industrial future and the prosperity it will create,” Mr Dangote said, adding that the refinery project reflects the scale of untapped opportunities within Africa’s energy market, particularly as most countries on the continent remain dependent on imported refined petroleum products despite growing industrial demand and rising consumption.

The billionaire industrialist noted that demand for products such as polypropylene, aviation fuel and refined petroleum products has exceeded earlier projections, reinforcing the commercial viability of the refinery and shaping future expansion plans.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Oil Exploration Declines 41.7% as Rig Counts Falls to 12 in April

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rig count

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s oil exploration and drilling activities declined by 41.7 per cent in April 2026, following reduced upstream operations and investment activities.

According to the May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s rig count, a major indicator of upstream oil and gas activities, dropped to 12 in April 2026 from 17 recorded in March 2026.

The decline came amid persistent upstream investment and operational challenges, according to the latest monthly report released by OPEC.

Earlier data contained in the May 2026 edition of the MOMR also showed that Nigeria’s average rig count declined to 13 in 2025 from 15 recorded in 2024, indicating reduced exploration and drilling activities in the upstream petroleum sector.

The report showed that Nigeria’s rig count fell by five rigs month-on-month, from 17 rigs in March 2026 to 12 rigs in April 2026.

Rig count is widely regarded in the petroleum industry as a key indicator of exploration, field development and investment activities.

The decline comes despite ongoing efforts by the Nigerian government and industry operators to raise crude oil production, boost reserves and attract fresh upstream investments under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)

Nigeria’s performance contrasted with the broader African trend, where total rig count increased marginally from 42 in March 2026 to 48 in April 2026.

However, Nigeria accounted for a significant share of the continent’s decline in operational rigs during the period.

Within OPEC, Nigeria remained behind major producers such as Saudi Arabia, which recorded 265 rigs in April 2026, the United Arab Emirates with 66 rigs, and Iraq with 19 rigs.

The development also comes at a time when Nigeria is struggling to meet its crude oil production quota allocated by OPEC consistently.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Central Bank Holds Rate at 26.50% Despite Heightened Disruptions

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CBN MPC meeting May 20

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the headline interest rate, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), at 26.50 per cent.

This was disclosed by the Governor of Nigeria’s central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, on Wednesday, after the conclusion of the MPC meeting. He noted that the decision was hinged on Nigeria being largely insulated from external shocks relating to developments in the Middle East.

He also acknowledged that inflation and exchange rate stability were put into consideration during the two-day meeting.

The committee reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th MPC gathering in February.

Nigeria’s inflation rose to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, affected by the fallout from the Iran war, which continued to impact the global economy. Noting that year-on-year, the figures show a moderation rather than worry.

The headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Mr Cardoso noted that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was also retained at 45 per cent for commercial Banks, 16 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.

He added that the Standing Facilities Corridor was also held flat at +50 / -450 basis points around the MPR.

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