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Economy

Oil Market Bullish as Supply Risks Outweigh Demand Worries

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global oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was in the positive territory on Friday as a planned European Union (EU) ban on Russian energy imports and easing of COVID-19 lockdowns in China countered concerns that slowing economic growth will hurt demand.

Yesterday, the price of the Brent crude rose by 87 cents or 0.78 per cent to $112.90 per barrel while the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) grew by $1.02 or 91 cents to $113.20 per barrel.

On a week-to-date basis, Brent was up about one per cent after falling about one per cent last week while WTI was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain for the first time since mid-February.

Analysts noted that the Chinese reopening and continued efforts towards a Russian oil embargo by the EU swayed the market to the positive zone.

In China, Shanghai did not signal any change to its planned end of a prolonged city-wide lockdown on June 1 even though the city announced its first new COVID-19 cases outside quarantined areas in five days.

Authorities have granted approval to 864 of the city’s financial institutions to resume work on Wednesday as it gradually eases a city-wide lockdown that began seven weeks ago.

The move is part of the financial hub’s plan to reopen broadly and allow normal life to resume after the lockdown was enacted to curb China’s worst outbreak since the coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan in late 2019 and halted the most economic activity.

The EU is hoping to clinch a deal on a proposed ban on Russian crude imports which includes carve-outs for member states most dependent on Russia such as Hungary.

In Europe’s largest economy, Germany, businesses are drafting a plan to use an auction system to help ration available supplies in the event Russia cuts off its gas.

However, China added some downward pressure to oil prices this week when it clearly signalled its intent to buy more discounted Russian oil.

China and India have become the destination for Russia as it races to pivot toward Asia as the EU attempts to ditch its oil.

In the US, energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a ninth week in a row, according to the Baker Hughes rig count, as most small producers respond to high prices and prodding by the government to ramp up output.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NUPRC Seals Exploration Licence Agreement to Boost Oil Search

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SeaSeis NUPRC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has signed a Petroleum Exploration Licence (PEL) No. 5 agreement with SeaSeisGeophysical Limited, paving the way for a major offshore data acquisition project aimed at boosting oil and gas exploration.

The agreement, executed in Abuja, authorises SeaSeis, in partnership with global data firm TGS, to undertake the acquisition and processing of new 3D seismic and gravity data.

The PEL 5 project spans approximately 11,700 square kilometres offshore the Eastern Niger Delta, covering water depths ranging from 400 to 2,800 metres.

The initiative is expected to enhance subsurface understanding, improve prospectivity, and support more efficient development of Nigeria’s hydrocarbon resources, in line with provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, the chief executive of NUPRC, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the licence underscores the commission’s commitment to data-driven exploration, transparency, and long-term value creation for the country’s oil and gas industry.

She noted that the project would provide critical geological data needed to attract investment and unlock new opportunities in Nigeria’s upstream sector.

In his remarks, the Managing Director of SeaSeisGeophysical Limited, Mr Goke Adeniyi, described the PEL 5 project as the company’s largest in Africa, highlighting the vast potential within Nigeria’s offshore energy landscape.

The partnership is expected to strengthen collaboration between regulators and industry players while advancing efforts to optimise resource development and sustain growth in the sector.

Recall that the upstream oil sector regulator is slashing the time it takes to approve applications to revive idle oil wells from weeks to hours as Nigeria, which is Africa’s top crude producer, seeks to take advantage of high energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

The country is also fast-tracking approvals for evacuations and barges at production facilities and export terminals to let barrels get to buyers quickly, as buyers turn to suppliers such as Nigeria and Angola on the African continent.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Only Gets 40% Local Crude Feedstock

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Dangote Refinery Crude Supply to Local Refineries

By Adedapo Adesanya

There are indications of a possible fuel shortage in Nigeria as the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals, which is responsible for over 60 per cent of domestic supply, is now getting only about 40 per cent of local feedstock.

According to the chief executive of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals, Mr David Bird, the refinery currently gets only about five cargoes of crude monthly, against an expected 13 to 15 cargoes.

He explained that this was below its agreed crude oil supply under the Federal Government’s crude-for-Naira arrangement.

According to him, the shortfall has affected the refinery’s ability to optimise local crude supply despite existing agreements being fully met.

“What we see under that agreement, we should be getting about 13 to 15 cargoes a month. And that’s what we could process to meet the domestic fuel requirements of Nigeria.

“Currently, we’re only getting five. So, that’s an underperformance against that pre-agreed volume contract.”

Mr Bird stated that the crude-for-Naira policy was designed to stabilise Nigeria’s foreign exchange market rather than provide financial advantages to the refinery, adding that the company still purchases crude at international benchmark prices.

He explained that the shortfall had caused the refinery to source preferred Nigerian crude grades from the international market at higher costs.

“And that value between the purchase price and the premium that we’re now seeing is money that Nigeria is leaking to the international trading community,” he said.

Last year alone, Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion worth of crude oil to make up for shortfalls

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, has been plagued by challenges that restrict optimal crude supply, so the Lagos-based company has to get feedstock from alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

While Nigeria has so far been insulated from shortages that have plagued countries in South Asia and some parts of Europe, disruptions to trade triggered by the Middle East war may constrain flows, leading to higher prices, even for countries not directly affected.

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Economy

OTC Securities Exchange Gains 1.41%

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Nigerian OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 1.41 per cent on Wednesday, March 25, with the market capitalisation adding N35.04 billion to close at N2.512 trillion versus the previous session’s N2.477 trillion, and the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) expanding by 58.55 points to 4,198.85 points from 4,140.30 points.

The growth came amid a weak investor sentiment, as the OTC securities exchange recorded two price gainers and three price losers.

The advancers were led by Okitipupa Plc, which chalked up N25 to sell at N275.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N250.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc grew by N7.43 to N86.37 per unit from N78.94 per unit.

On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N7.04 to sell at N101.13 per share versus Tuesday’s closing price of N108.73 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc went down by 9 Kobo to N2.89 per unit from N2.98 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc dipped 3 Kobo to 50 Kobo per share from 53 Kobo per share.

Yesterday, the volume of securities rose by 135.6 per cent to 2.2 million units from 933,125 units, the value of securities increased by 2.4 per cent to N46.7 million from N45.6 million, and the number of deals grew by 27.6 per cent to 37 deals from 29 deals.

The most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis was CSCS Plc with 39.1 million units exchanged for N2.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units valued at N1.2 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 6.5 million units traded for N1.2 billion.

The most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, followed by Infrastructure Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 132.9 million units transacted for N510.7 million.

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