Connect with us

Economy

Oil Plunges 5% as IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts

Published

on

oil demand worries

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices plunged more than 5 per cent on Tuesday on demand concerns after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its economic growth forecasts and warned of higher inflation.

Brent crude fell 5.07 per cent or $5.74 to sell at $107.40 per barrel, while the price of the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) went down by $5.70 or 5.27 per cent to $102.50 a barrel.

The Bretton Wood institution cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia’s invasion could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said prospects had worsened “significantly” in the past three months as it reduced its growth estimate for 2022 from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent.

While this affected the market, the oil space was also hit as it sounded a special warning about China’s economy, the largest oil importer in the world.

China’s GDP growth estimate for 2022 was revised downward to 4.4 per cent from its 4.8 per cent estimate in January. Citing what it called a “worsening” economic slowdown, the IMF said it expected a longer downturn in China, despite preparations for the reopening of factories in Shanghai, which could lead to a rise in fuel demand.

“In addition, the combination of more transmissible variants and the strict zero-Covid policy could continue to hamper economic activity and increase uncertainty.

“Larger disruptions could impact key commercial activities, including through port lockdowns,” it wrote.

China’s COVID lockdown due to an Omicron outbreak helped pressure oil prices down last week, with Shanghai factories closed, resulting in lower demand.

Prices also fell despite lower output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which produced 1.45 million barrels per day below its targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West.

According to an OPEC+ report, last month, members’ combined crude oil production lagged behind the quota by 1.45 million barrels per day, with the compliance rate shooting up to a record 157 per cent since the start of the 10 million barrels per day production cut agreed upon in April 2020.

Russia’s crude oil production, in particular, averaged 300,000 barrels per day below target at 10.018 million barrels per day.

The OPEC+ crude production in March fell further behind the target levels after February output was more than 1 million barrels per day below the collective quota and the compliance rate was 136 per cent.

Meanwhile, disruptions from Libya remain as the country’s National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on some output and exports as forces in the east expanded their blockade of the sector over a political standoff.

NOC on Tuesday declared force majeure at the Brega oil port over more closures.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Dangote Plans Seaport in Ogun to Ease Export of Petrol, Fertiliser, Others

Published

on

Dangote host media

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian billionaire businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, plans to build a seaport in Ogun State to ease the movement of goods from his factories bound for export.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the proposed Atlantic seaport in Olokola, Ogun state, lies about 100 kilometres (62 miles) by road from the Dangote fertiliser plant and petrochemicals refinery in Lagos.

He will be constructing the port at the same site he had previously planned to build his refinery until infractions with the government led him to change his mind despite fulfilling some financial arrangements.

Speaking to the publication, the businessman said he has sent the paperwork to the government for permission in late June.

“It’s not that we want to do everything by ourselves, but I think doing this will encourage other entrepreneurs to come into it,” he noted.

The establishment of a seaport will make it easier for him to export goods, including petrol, liquefied natural gas, urea, fertiliser, among others, which are limited by constraints and bottlenecks on Nigerian road networks and congested seaports.

Dangote currently exports urea and fertilizer through an on-site jetty he built, that also receives heavy equipment for the refinery.

It was reported that the port will link his logistics and export operations and other competitors facilities in Lagos,  including the Lekki Deep Sea Port in Lagos.

According to the Vice-President of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Devakumar Edwin, the firm also plans to export liquefied gas from Lagos, a project that will involve constructing pipelines from Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta.

“We want to do a major project to bring more gas than what NLNG is doing today,” he said, adding that, “We know where there is a lot of gas, so run a pipeline all through and then bring it to the shore.”

These developments mark the next step in plans by the further expand his empire both home and abroad. Already, the company plans to start distributing fuel to retailers in Nigeria from August, using a fleet of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks.

Business Post reported last week that he has also started plans to construct storage tanks in Namibia to hold at least 1.6 million barrels of petrol and diesel to supply refined fuel to the southern Africa market.

Continue Reading

Economy

Nigeria May See 4.4% GDP Growth, 17.1% Inflation in H2 2025—FSDH

Published

on

0.51% GDP Growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria may achieve an economic growth of 4.4 per cent and a moderate inflation of 17.1 per cent if crude oil production improves, analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank have projected.

In a report released last week, the firm in its Nigeria Macroeconomic Report for the First Half of 2025, offered critical insights into the global and domestic economic environment.

The report titled Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World dissected the complex interplay of global disruptions and Nigeria’s economic performance, while providing a forward-looking projection for the second half of 2025.

It said despite global trade tensions, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, and fragile capital flows, Nigeria showed signs of resilience, underpinned by expanding non-oil exports, moderating inflation, and improving investor sentiment.

“Nigeria has demonstrated encouraging signs of macroeconomic stability in the face of global headwinds. Our PMI data suggests an expanding economy, inflation is decelerating, and exchange rate reforms are strengthening market confidence. However, sustaining this progress requires deep structural reforms, especially in energy, trade, and fiscal management,” the chief executive of FSDH Merchant Bank, Mrs Bukola Smith, was quoted as saying in the note.

For the first half of the year, the report noted that Israel-Iran conflict and a renewed tariff war under US President Donald Trump have triggered global uncertainty, with the IMF cutting global growth projections, adding that oil price volatility and trade disruptions are shaping Nigeria’s external outlook.

It also noted that Nigeria’s inflation has moderated following a revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, inflation slowed from 24.5 per cent in January to 23 per cent in May 2025.

The firm also affirmed that exchange rate reforms were working.

“The Naira showed relative stability, trading within a narrower band. FX reforms and CBN’s transparency have restored investor confidence,” it said, adding that, “Though official GDP data is pending, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed above the 50-point threshold throughout H1, reflecting economic expansion across agriculture, industry, and services.”

It revealed that despite a decline in oil’s share of exports to 62.9 per cent (from 81 per cent in Q1 2024), crude oil production remains below budget benchmarks. This shortfall may affect fiscal performance unless addressed.

Other pointers include NGX All Share Index (NGX-ASI) which returned 16.6 per cent YTD, outperforming many global peers, while foreign portfolio investments surged to $5.03 billion in Q1 as well as the passage of four major tax laws in June, aiming to harmonize tax administration, increase compliance, and improve equity.

“These are expected to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10 per cent to 18 per cent in three years,” it said.

The report then projects that if oil production improves and inflation continues its downward trend in the current half of this year, Nigeria may achieve GDP growth of 4.4 per cent, inflation at 17.1 per cent, and external reserves of $44.3 billion, provided oil output and reforms align in a best-case scenario.

However, Nigeria must leverage current momentum to deepen economic diversification, accelerate reforms in the power and petroleum sectors, and maintain coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.

“Investor sentiment has begun to turn positive. Nigeria’s bond and T-bill markets are attracting renewed interest, and equity markets are gaining momentum.

“At FSDH, we understand that in times like this, clarity and partnership matter more than ever. While we can’t control global events or predict every market move, we remain committed to helping you navigate the complexity with perspective, precision, and purpose,” the Executive Director for Global Markets and Institutional Banking at FSDH, Mr Hakeem Muhammed, said.

The report also noted cautious optimism in the bond and NT-Bills market, as yields softened in response to improved macro indicators, while oil sector stocks on the NGX continued to underperform due to global crude price pressures.

“With the MPR at 27.5 per cent, prime lending rates currently exceed 30 per cent, but projected downward trends in H2 2025 offer a more favourable outlook for debt-funded expansion and capital investments,” added Mrs Stella-Marie Omogbai, Executive Director, Corporate Banking and Branches, FSDH Merchant Bank, “Interest rates are expected to ease due to projections on MPC rates dropping to at least 27 per cent, supported by fresh capital inflows in the banking industry and reduced inflation concerns.”

“FSDH, in partnership with DFIs, will continue to provide funding at competitive rates to help businesses grow,” she further stated.

Continue Reading

Economy

Bitcoin Crosses Landmark $122,000 Milestone for First Time Ever

Published

on

The Economics of Bitcoin

By Adedapo Adesanya

Bitcoin crossed the $122,000 level for the first time on Monday.

The development marks a milestone for the world’s largest cryptocurrency as investors bet on long-sought policy wins for the industry this week.

Three major bills, the Clarity Act, the Genius Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, are set to be reviewed by the US lawmakers.

The crypto asset scaled a record high of $122,482.00 on Monday, before pulling back slightly to last trade 3.9 per cent higher at $122,462.70, as of press time.

The surge in bitcoin, which is up 29 per cent for the year so far, has sparked a broader rally across other cryptocurrencies over the past few sessions, even in the face of President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariffs.

Ether (ETH), the second-largest token, scaled a more than five-month high of $3,050.90, while Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL) gained about 3 per cent each at $2.95 and $166.23, respectively.

Other benchmarked tokens like Finance Coin (BNB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are also up at $703.61 and $0.2055, respectively.

Reuters reported that starting on Monday, the US House of Representatives will debate the series of bills to provide the digital asset industry with the nation’s regulatory framework it has long demanded.

Those demands have resonated with President Trump, who has called himself the “crypto president” and urged policymakers to revamp rules in favour of the industry.

The sector’s total market value has swelled to about $3.78 trillion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Continue Reading

Trending