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Economy

Oil Prices Bullish Monday Despite COVID-19 Pressures

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oil prices cancel iran deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil futures came out stronger on Monday, September 28 even as rising cases of the coronavirus continued to plague energy demand.

The international benchmark futures, Brent crude, gained by 1.22 per cent or 51 cents to trade at $42.43 per barrel while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.78 per cent or 33 cents to $40.62 per barrel.

The global tally for confirmed cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 climbed to 33.5 million on Monday while the death toll crossed the one-million mark.

According to analysts, oil prices resumed their uptrend as investors turned more optimistic about global growth prospects, which seem most likely to hinge on COVID-19 control in various countries and the outlook for vaccine approval and distribution.

Despite this, the global health crisis, which has slashed global fuel consumption, kept oil prices from moving much higher.

Contributing support to oil prices on Monday was a possible disruption to oil output in Norway. The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association said oil firms in Norway plan to close down 22 per cent of the country’s oil-and-gas output or 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day if oil workers go on strike this week.

Also boosting oil prices was one of the heaviest clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which started in 2016. A fight broke out over the weekend, reigniting concern about stability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas to world markets.

Azerbaijan is the 24th largest crude oil producer in the world and a significant producer of natural gas, which both account for more than 90 per cent of the country’s exports. Its pipelines make it a strategic gateway to oil and gas in the Caspian and a growing source of energy security for Europe.

Demand worry has continued to grip the market as Russian Energy Minister, Mr Alexander Novak said the global oil market had been stable for the past few months, but warned of the risks of a second wave of COVID-19 cases.

Despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ to limit output, more crude is being exported from OPEC producers Iran and Libya.

The North African country has opened several export terminals and production could rise significantly before the end of the year.

OPEC Secretary-General, Mr Mohammad Barkindo, also warned that commercial oil inventories in some countries are expected to stand only slightly above the five-year average in the first quarter of 2021, before falling below that level for the rest of the year.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Oil Prices Mixed as US Proposes Plan to End Iran War

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Oil Prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday after reports ‌that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East.

Brent futures ‌went down by $0.83 ⁠or 0.9 per cent to $99.11 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate climbed $4.22 or 4.79 per cent to $92.35 per barrel.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and Iran were “in negotiations right now” and suggested Tehran was eager to make a peace deal, even as the Islamic Republic denied it’s in direct talks with America.

President Trump, speaking in the Oval Office, said he decided to back off from his recent threat to order strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure

According to reports, ​the plan includes a one-month ceasefire to be announced, according to a mechanism that US Middle ​East envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared ​Kushner are working on.

The Strait of Hormuz was handling about 20 per cent of global seaborne oil supplies until the war broke out, before Iran virtually stopped flows via the critical waterway. With around a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply cut off by the Middle East war, prices are still ​more than 40 per cent higher than they were when the conflict erupted in late February.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has seen its liquified natural gas (LNG) and most oil supply choked at the vital chokepoint, said Iran’s weaponisation of the energy and trade flows amounts to economic terrorism against every nation in the world.

Since the US-Israel strikes on Iran began on February 28, the daily traffic of over 100 vessels, including tankers, through the Strait of Hormuz, has slowed to a trickle of a handful of passages per week, all cargoes apparently approved for transit by Iran.

Iranian state media said that Iran would permit safe transit through the strait, except for ships associated with its “enemies.”

Amid the messaging clash between the US and Iran on negotiations, multiple outlets have reported that regional leaders are engaged in behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts to help broker an end to the war.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ending March 20. Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

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Economy

Airtel Africa, Others Lift Nigerian Exchange by 0.85%

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Airtel Africa strong revenue growth

By Dipo Olowookere

The bulls rescued the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited from the bears on Tuesday amid cherry-picking of shares with sound fundamentals.

Data showed that the bourse closed higher by 0.85 per cent during the trading day, influenced by bargain-hunting activities by investors.

Business Post reports that Airtel Africa led the gainers’ chart yesterday after it rose by 10.00 per cent to N2,497.00, Consolidated Hallmark increased by 10.00 per cent to N4.95, John Holt gained 10.00 per cent to close at N14.30, Legend Internet also surged by 10.00 per cent to N6.60, and Zichis appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N10.37.

On the flip side, NPF Microfinance Bank lost 6.29 per cent to trade at N6.56, Royal Exchange depreciated by 5.32 per cent to N1.78, CWG crashed by 4.82 per cent to N20.75, Veritas Kapital went down by 4.21 per cent to N2.05, and UPDC slipped by 3.88 per cent to N4.95.

The market breadth index was positive after Customs Street finished with 32 appreciating equities and 26 depreciating equities, representing bullish investor sentiment.

It was observed that buying pressure was across the key sectors of the market, with the insurance, consumer goods, and banking indices up by 2.14 per cent, 0.53 per cent, and 0.50 per cent apiece, while the industrial goods and energy sectors closed flat.

The All-Share Index (ASI) gained 1,691.86 points on Tuesday to finish at 200,705.88 points from Monday’s 199,014.02 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N1.086 trillion to N128.836 trillion from N127.750 trillion.

At the exchange yesterday, 1.3 billion shares worth N65.3 billion were traded in 89,949 deals compared with the 848.8 million shares valued at N53.3 billion transacted in 139,458 deals a day earlier, showing a decline in the number of deals by 35.50 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 53.16 per cent and 22.51 per cent, respectively.

The activity log was topped by Access Holdings with 266.8 million stocks valued at N6.0 billion, GTCO traded 184.4 million shares for N19.4 billion, Wema Bank exchanged 182.5 million equities worth N4.8 billion, UBA sold 119.1 million stocks valued at N5.8 billion, and Zenith Bank transacted 42.7 million shares for N4.6 billion.

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Economy

Nigeria to Raise Output by 100,000 bpd to Offset Global Supply Shortfall

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Utapate crude oil blend

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, has said that Nigeria could increase oil production ​by about 100,000 barrels per day ‌over the next few months to realistically help the global shortfall.

Speaking with Reuters on the sidelines of the ongoing CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, the NNPC helmsman, when asked if Nigeria ​could help make up for the ​crude shortfall resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran, said the country was working towards it.

His comment comes as the war continued to rage on and affect crude prices as well as liquified natural gas (LNG), particularly due to the restrictions from the Strait of Hormuz.

The ​country averaged between 1.6 million barrels per day and ​1.7 million barrels per day last ⁠year and is hoping to average 1.8 ​million barrels per day this year, but has faced several challenges to production, mainly underinvestment and oil theft.

“We are ‌building ⁠that capacity,” he said, though he added, “We are not like Saudi Arabia,” referring to the top OPEC member. “But we can contribute.”

During an ​onstage interview ​at the ⁠conference, Mr Ojulari said NNPC completed a full portfolio review of ​its business last year and ​is ⁠beginning to implement changes this year.

He said a crucial focus that the state oil company is working on is to improve execution and ensure ⁠projects ​are delivered on budget ​and on time.

His comments followed the country recording a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in January and February of 2026, according to an analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

According to the data, Nigeria produced a total of 50.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, while output declined notably in February, with total production dropping to approximately 41.6 million barrels, bringing cumulative output for the two months to 92 million barrels.

Based on the government’s benchmark in the 2026 budget, the country was expected to produce about 57 million barrels in January and 51.5 million barrels in February, to reach about 108.6 million barrels for the period.

The daily production averages provided in the NUPRC report further illustrated the extent of the gap. In January, total liquids output, according to the data, averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by roughly 210,000 barrels per day.

In the same vein, in February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day.

According to the report, over the course of the two months, the daily deficits accumulated into the overall shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels, reinforcing the scale of Nigeria’s underperformance relative to its fiscal assumptions.

Crude oil production remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s output in the period under review. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day, before declining to roughly 1.31 million barrels per day in February, dragging down overall output for the month.

On the other hand, condensate production, while significantly smaller in volume, provided some support to total output. It averaged just over 116,000 barrels per day in January and about 122,000 barrels per day in February.

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