By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors focused on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and trimming in the projected 2026 oil surplus, with Brent crude trading at $61.28 a barrel after losing 93 cents or 1.49 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $57.60 a barrel, down by 86 cents or 1.47 per cent.

The prospect of a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine also appeared to be driving the market lower. Such a deal would likely increase the supply of Russian oil that is currently off the market for most of the world.

Despite attacks, market analysts noted that there seems to be some movement on a possible path to peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The leaders of Britain, France and Germany held a call on Wednesday with US President Donald Trump to discuss the US’ latest peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine, in what they said was a “critical moment” in the process.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that a recent visit to Moscow by US envoy Steve Witkoff had resolved misunderstandings between the two countries.

Ukraine’s security services (SBU) executed a long-range drone strike on the Vladimir Filanovsky offshore oil field in the Caspian Sea, a key Lukoil facility, forcing a suspension of oil and gas production.

The attack is significant as it marks the first time Kyiv has targeted hydrocarbon extraction assets in the distant Caspian region, demonstrating a growing capability to hit critical upstream assets far from the frontline.

On Wednesday, the US said it seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, as escalating tensions between the two countries raised concerns about supply disruptions.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook for 2025-2026, pointing to resilient consumption in China, India, and the Middle East while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate after 2025.

The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability, a markedly more optimistic stance than the International Energy Agency (IEA’s) earlier glut-heavy narrative.

In its latest update, the agency trimmed the projected 2026 surplus for the first time since May, cutting its glut forecast from 4.09 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day as sanctions on Russia and Venezuela curb supply and as global demand proves stronger than previously assumed. Improved macro conditions and easing tariff concerns also prompted the IEA to revise 2026 demand growth upward by 90,000 barrels per day.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Lagos remains Nigeria’s top-performing state for ease of doing business, according to a new report by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC).

PEBEC in its Subnational Ease Of Doing Business Report 2025, which analyses the business environment across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), noted that five states stood out as the strongest performers: Lagos, Kaduna, Oyo, the FCT and Ogun.

Lagos with 85.6 per cent stood out particularly for infrastructure such as roads and logistics, land administration, regulatory digital transformation, and digital literacy. It also continues to serve as the country’s tech hub and logistics gateway. Others include Kaduna (65.1 per cent), Oyo (62.7 per cent), the FCT (61.0 per cent) and Ogun (59.9 per cent).

Meanwhile, states such as Benue, Borno, and Zamfara remain at the bottom of the ranking as years of prolonged conflict and terrorism continue to make business operations challenging.

“Lagos state demonstrates strong market access, supported by efficient one-stop shops and clearly published incentives. Streamlined regulatory procedures and coordinated institutional support enable businesses to enter and expand operations with minimal delays, fostering investor confidence and enhancing the state’s attractiveness for new investment,” it said.

While Lagos ranks ahead of its peers, critical gaps include touting and loitering, investor aftercare, and digital connectivity.

PEBEC warned that “the presence of unauthorized individuals loitering around key business and logistics touchpoints creates an environmental nuisance and introduces significant security and safety concerns for commercial operators and the public.”

On digital connectivity, PEBEC said with network coverage concentrated in urban centres, limiting businesses to city clusters and restricting e-commerce adoption in inner towns and communities, and curtailing digital economic gains, adding that poor performance in investor aftercare signals gaps in post-entry support.

“The absence of a dedicated desk or poorly functioning departments results in delayed responses, inconsistent engagement, and limited guidance for investors, reducing Lagos state’s ability to retain existing investments and attract new capital.”

PEBEC noted that the Lagos State government must launch a high-capacity, dedicated Investor Aftercare Service to provide white-glove support for existing investors.

In the medium term, it advised that the state to prioritize enhanced security measures and regulatory enforcement by integrating real-time surveillance at key street corners and business corridors, coupled with deploying dedicated special task forces to physically remove loitering individuals.

“Crucially, the state should also pass an anti-loitering law to provide the legal framework necessary for sustained enforcement.”

On tackling its long term challenges, Lagos needs to upgrade digital infrastructure by extending fiber optic networks and incentivising last-mile connectivity.

“This will make high-speed internet more reliable, cut operational friction, and help businesses access markets easier,” PEBEC said.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s trade surplus, which measures the difference between export and imports, fell 10.4 per cent to N6.7 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 as import increased, the latest data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows.

The Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics (Q3 2025) Report showed that Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at N38.94 trillion in Q3 2025, representing an increase by 2.4 per cent compared to the value recorded in Q2 2025 (N38.04 trillion).

Total exports in the period under-review were valued at N22.81 trillion, reflecting a 11.1 per cent rise compared to N20.54 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and a 0.3 per cent increase when compared to N22.75 trillion in Q2 2025. The value of total imports stood at N16.12 trillion in the same period, representing a 5.5 per cent increase from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 (N15.28 trillion) and a 5.5 per cent increase compared to the value recorded in Q2, 2025 (N15.29 trillion).

This happened even after Nigeria launched a Nigeria First Policy initiative, which seeks to prioritize Nigerian companies, goods, and services in procurement with the aims to reduce import dependency.

Exports accounted for 58.59 per cent of total trade while imports accounted for 41.41 per cent of total trade in the third quarter of 2025.

Analysis shows that crude oil remained Nigeria’s major exported commodity in the third quarter of 2025 with a value of N12.81 trillion,  representing 56.1 per cent of total exports. A further breakdown reveals that the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N10.01 trillion accounting for 43.9 per cent of total exports; of which non-oil products contributed N29.96 trillion or 13.1 per cent of total exports.

In Q3 2025, Nigeria’s top five trading export partners were India, Spain, France, The Netherlands, and Italy. The most exported commodities were crude oil, natural gas, other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, Kerosene type jet fuel, and Urea, whether or not in aqueous solution.

China continued to dominate as Nigeria’s top import partner followed by the United States of America, India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Belgium. The most traded commodities imported during the quarter were Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals crude, Gas oil, Motor spirit ordinary, Durum wheat, Cane sugar meant for sugar refinery.

The value of exports to African countries stood at N4.9 trillion, while imports amounted to N595.00 billion. Nigeria’s exports to Africa were mainly to Ivory Coast with N1.44 trillion, Ghana with goods valued at N714.03 billion, South Africa with N710.33 billion, Togo followed with N531.06 billion, and Senegal with N418.64 billion altogether representing 77.8 per cent of exports to Africa.

On the other hand, Nigeria’s major import partners within Africa in Q3 2025 were South Africa with N163.44 billion, Ghana with goods valued at N110.42 billion, Egypt with N72.04 billion, Morocco with N59.99 billion, and Ivory Coast with N41.87 billion.