Economy
Oil Prices Plunge on Recession Fears, Weak Demand
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices plummeted by more than 3 per cent on Friday as global recession fears and weak oil demand, with the Brent crude futures dropping $2.94 or 3.1 per cent to settle at $91.63 a barrel, and the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures falling by $3.50 or 3.9 per cent to $85.61 a barrel.
US core inflation recorded its biggest annual increase in 40 years, reinforcing views that interest rates would stay higher for longer with the risk of a global recession.
The next US interest rate decision is due between November 1 and 2.
Regardless, US consumer sentiment continued to improve steadily in October, but households’ inflation expectations deteriorated a bit, a survey showed.
Analysts note that the improvement in consumer sentiment is being viewed as a negative because it means the Fed needs to break the spirit of the consumers and slow the economy down more, and that’s caused an increase in the Dollar and downward pressure on the oil market.
Weak oil demand, especially in China, outweighed support from a large cut to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) supply target.
China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, has been fighting COVID-19 flare-ups after a week-long holiday. The country’s infection tally is small by global standards, but it adheres to a zero-COVID policy that is weighing heavily on economic activity and, thus oil demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday cut its oil demand forecast for this and next year, warning of a potential global recession.
The IEA cut its oil-demand growth forecasts by 470,000 barrels daily for 2023 to 1.7 million barrels a day. It also lowered its 2022 oil-demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels daily, to 1.9 million barrels a day.
Oil demand growth has steadily fallen throughout the year and is forecast to contract in the fourth quarter by 340,000 barrels a day, the IEA said.
The market is still digesting a 2 million barrels per day cut to oil production targets by OPEC+ as underproduction among the group means this will probably translate to a 1 million barrels per day cut, the IEA estimates.
The reduction in the group’s output targets will tighten the oil market further at a moment of extreme vulnerability with few additional sources of supply available to compensate.
Also pressuring prices, the US Dollar index rose around 0.8 per cent. A stronger greenback reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Meanwhile, the number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 7 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.
The total rig count rose to 769 this week—226 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Thursday, December 12 after it ended the trading session with no single price gainer or loser.
As a result, the market capitalisation remained unchanged at N1.055 trillion as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) followed the same route, remaining at 3,012.50 points like the previous trading session.
However, the activity chart witnessed changes as the volume of securities traded at the bourse went down by 92.5 per cent to 447,905 units from the 5.9 million units transacted a day earlier.
In the same vein, the value of securities bought and sold by investors declined by 86.6 per cent to N3.02 million from the N22.5 million recorded in the preceding trading day.
But the number of deals carried out during the session remained unchanged at 21 deals, according to data obtained by Business Post.
When trading activities ended for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc came next with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third place with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N14.79 or 0.9 per cent to trade at N1,534.50/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,549.29/$1 on Thursday, December 12.
The strengthening of the domestic currency during the trading session was influenced by the introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN; publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira at the official market.
Equally, the local currency improved its value against the British Pound Sterling by N3.91 to wrap the session at N1,954.77/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,958.65/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency gained N2.25 to sell for N1,610.41/€1 versus N1,612.66/€1.
However, in the black market, the Naira crashed further against the US Dollar on Thursday by N10 to quote at N1,680/$1 compared with Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,670/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market majorly corrected after earlier gains as US President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his ambition to embrace crypto assets, but a bond market rout dragged risk assets lower.
Mr Trump said, “We’re going to do something great with crypto” while ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, reiterating his ambition to embrace digital assets in the world’s largest economy and create a strategic bitcoin reserve.
Alongside, the European Central Bank trimmed its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points and in its dovish policy statement hinted that more rate cuts were likely to happen.
The biggest loss was made by Cardano (ADA), which fell by 4.9 per cent to trade at $1.10, followed by Ripple (XRP), which slid by 4.1 per cent to $2.33 and Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded a value depreciation of 2.9 per cent to sell at $0.4064.
Further, Solana (SOL) slumped by 1.8 per cent to $225.89, Binance Coin (BNB) slipped by 1.3 per cent to $746.92, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.6 per cent to $99,998.18, Ethereum (ETH) crumbled by 0.5 per cent to $3,909.43, and Litecoin (LTC) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $121.52, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market slumped on Thursday, pressured by an expected increase in supply, supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
The International Energy Agency (EIA) made a slight upward revision to its demand outlook for next year but still expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied, with Brent crude futures losing 11 cents or 0.15 per cent to trade at $73.41 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declining by 27 cents or 0.38 per cent to finish at $70.02 per barrel.
The IEA in its monthly oil market report increased its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day from 990,000 barrels per day last month, largely in Asian countries due to the impact of China’s recent stimulus measures.
At the same time, the IEA expects nations not in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) group to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day next year, driven by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina – more than the rate of demand growth.
On Wednesday, OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month.
The IEA said that, even excluding the return to higher output quotas, its current outlook is to a 950,000 barrels per day supply overhang next year, which is almost 1 per cent of the world’s supply.
The Paris-based agency said this would rise to 1.4 million barrels per day if OPEC+ goes ahead with its plan to start unwinding cuts from the end of next March.
Next year’s surplus could make it harder for OPEC+ to bring back production. The hike was earlier due to start in October 2024, but OPEC+ has delayed it amid falling prices.
Meanwhile, inflation rose slightly in November increasing the possibility of a US Federal Reserve rates cut again as the data fed optimism about economic growth and energy demand.
Support also came as crude imports in China grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14 per cent from a year earlier.
-
Feature/OPED5 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism8 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz2 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking6 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy2 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking2 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports2 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn
-
Technology4 years agoHow To Link Your MTN, Airtel, Glo, 9mobile Lines to NIN