By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell by 2 per cent on Tuesday, for the third straight session, after slow economic data from Europe weighed on the outlook for energy demand, with Brent crude futures shedding $1.76 or 2 per cent to settle at $88.07 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropping $1.75 or 2.1 per cent to close at $83.74 a barrel.
Euro zone business activity data released on Tuesday took a surprise downward turn this month, suggesting the bloc may slip into recession.
HCOB’s flash Euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide to overall economic health, fell to 46.5 in October from September’s 47.2 and its lowest since November 2020.
The purchasing managers’ survey will likely make disappointing reading for the European Central Bank (ECB) which meets on Thursday.
In the continent’s largest economy, Germany, data also suggested a recession in that country is underway.
Also, Britain’s businesses reported another monthly decline in activity, highlighting recession risks ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision next week.
While Europe was bearish, the US was positive as S&P Global on Tuesday said its flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index tracking both the manufacturing and service sectors rose to 51.0 in October – one point above the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction – from a final September reading of 50.2. It was the highest level since July.
It was the latest sign the US economy is withstanding the surge in interest rates spurred by the Federal Reserve’s campaign to beat back inflation.
However, the relative strength of the US economy helped lift the dollar, making Dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The market also got ease from the development in the Middle East as the release of hostages from Gaza and intensifying diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas have reduced worries.
Also on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects oil demand to peak by 2030 based on governments’ current policies.
Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.668 million barrels for the week ending October 20, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), after a 4.383-million-barrel dip in crude inventories in the week prior, API data showed.
Analysts were expecting a build of 1.550 million barrels for the week. API data shows a net draw in crude oil inventories in the world’s largest oil producer of 2.679 million barrels so far this year.
The official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
Dipo Olowookere