Economy
Oil Prices Steady as US, China Signal Potential Trade Truce
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices held steady on Thursday as investors assessed a potential trade truce between the United States and China after President Donald Trump lowered tariffs on China following a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea.
Brent futures rose 8 cents or 0.1 per cent to settle at $65.00 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 9 cents or 0.1 per cent to $60.57 per barrel.
The American president agreed to reduce tariffs on China to 47 per cent from 57 per cent in a one-year deal in exchange for China resuming US soybean purchases, keeping rare earths exports flowing and cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade.
President Trump added he also discussed the war in Ukraine launched by Russia in February 2022, saying that he and Xi agreed to “work together.”
The meeting appears to have set the stage for a broader dialogue in the coming months, with Mr Trump saying that he plans to visit China in April and that a tentative trade deal could be signed soon.
Investors see the announced agreement between the world’s two largest economies as more of a de-escalation of tension than a structural change in the relationship.
Support also came as the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday by a further 25 basis points, in line with market expectations.
The Chairman of the US central bank Mr Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting struck a note of caution on what lies ahead, signalling that it might be the last cut of the year as the ongoing government shutdown threatens data availability.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged.
The euro zone economy grew a touch more quickly than expected in the third quarter, lifted by buoyant growth in France and Spain that more than offset faltering exports and persistent struggles in Germany’s oversized industrial sector.
There are expectations that the oil market is headed for a large surplus, with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) group raising output and US production at record levels. The 22-member OPEC alliance may make an additional 137,000 barrels per day output boost.
Economy
Nigerian Manufacturers Seek Cover from Middle East War-Induced Risks
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) is seeking protection from the federal government amid rising concerns over the impact of escalating Middle East tensions on Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, particularly risks linked to disrupted global shipping routes, volatile energy markets, and supply chain bottlenecks.
MAN noted, “Its vigilance regarding the escalating military tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. These events have significant implications for the global macroeconomic landscape, which can indirectly impact Nigeria.”
The director-general of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, expressed that this situation arises at a pivotal moment when Nigeria has seen its annual inflation rate positively ease to 15.10 per cent, and manufacturing capacity utilisation has begun to exceed the 60 per cent mark, saying, however, the current geopolitical turbulence poses challenges that require careful navigation to protect the economic progress achieved.
“Although these conflicts are occurring far from our shores, their economic consequences may directly influence the Nigerian economy.
“We are particularly attentive to issues surrounding global shipping disruptions, fluctuating energy markets, and potential supply chain bottlenecks that could challenge local production,” Ajayi-Kadir stated.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir further explained that the recent hostilities in the Middle East are reshaping the global energy and logistics environment.
“With critical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the global markets have become unsettled, reflected in rising Brent crude prices exceeding $84.50 per barrel, and increased global freight and war-risk insurance premiums as vessels seek safer routes,” he stated.
For Nigerian manufacturers, MAN DG added that the implications of these developments are immediate and significant, increasing production costs, saying that historically, disruptions in the U.S. and the Middle East have reverberated throughout the global economy, and Nigeria is no exception.
He noted that “while a rise in global oil prices could theoretically benefit Nigeria by bolstering foreign exchange reserves and contributing to the stability of the Naira, the current reality presents a complex challenge. Nigeria’s domestic crude production hovers around 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day due to ongoing structural challenges, limiting the ability to fully leverage potential gains.”
He disclosed that in terms of trade relations, the United States remains one of Nigeria’s most vital partners, stating that given the existing conflict, disruptions in this crucial trade relationship could lead to increased costs for global freight forwarding and longer lead times for imported raw materials, potentially resulting in imported inflation.
According to him, the manufacturing sector is poised to face a variety of immediate and complex challenges, including rising energy costs, which are particularly relevant given that manufacturers depend heavily on gas and diesel for effective operations.
“Additionally, increasing freight costs and longer shipping times are making it more expensive to procure raw materials. Furthermore, heightened costs for essential goods could diminish consumer purchasing power, presenting manufacturers with the challenge of rising production costs amid stagnant or declining sales.”
In identifying the sectors most likely to be affected, MAN emphasised that the impact of global conflicts is not uniformly distributed, adding that “while the entire real sector is likely to feel the pressure, specific groups such as the Chemical and Pharmaceuticals Sector and the Basic Metals, Iron, and Steel Sector may encounter unique challenges.
Economy
47 Equities Gain Weight on Nigerian Exchange in One Week
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed 47 price gainers last week, marginally lower than the 48 recorded in the preceding week.
This occurred as the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation depreciated by 0.12 per cent on a week-on-week basis to 200,913.06 points and N128.969 trillion apiece due to profit-taking.
Similarly, all other indices finished lower except the main board, insurance, AFR Div Yield, energy, Lotus II, growth and commodity indices, which appreciated by 1.53 per cent, 2.22 per cent, 1.36 per cent, 1.93 per cent, 1.61 per cent, 2.31 per cent and 2.77 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.
Business Post reports that in the week, 45 equities shed weight compared with 43 equities in the previous week, while 56 stocks closed flat versus 57 stocks a week earlier.
The best-performing stock last week was Zichis, which gained 60.72 per cent to trade at N13.79. Premier Paints appreciated by 60.25 per cent to N37.50, John Holt rose by 59.92 per cent to N18.95, Legend Internet grew by 25.00 per cent to N7.50, and McNichols increased by 20.65 per cent to N7.42.
As for the worst-performing stock for the week, it was Livestock Feeds, which declined by 11.73 per cent to N7.15, Fidson depreciated by 9.97 per cent to N94.85, Cadbury Nigeria dropped 9.94 per cent to N63.00, Austin Laz stumbled by 9.89 per cent to N4.01, and Learn Africa lost 9.09 per cent to settle at N8.50.
A look at the activity chart showed that 3.950 billion shares worth N201.312 billion exchanged hands in 359,642 deals in the five-day trading week, in contrast to the 8.761 billion shares valued at N267.253 billion traded in 193,473 deals a week earlier.
Financial stocks dominated with 2.881 billion units sold for N102.259 billion traded in 139,093 deals, contributing 72.94 per cent and 50.80 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.
ICT equities transacted 230.539 million units worth N45.172 billion in 52,669 deals, and agriculture shares traded 191.927 million units valued at N6.626 billion in 16,471 deals.
Wema Bank, Access Holdings, and UBA were the busiest, with 1.448 billion units worth N43.191 billion in 28,436 deals, contributing 36.65 per cent and 21.45 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Economy
Selling Pressure Shrinks Nigerian Stocks by 0.02%
By Dipo Olowookere
Nigerian stocks shrank by 0.02 per cent as a result of renewed selling pressure, after the consumer goods index crumbled by 0.89 per cent, and the banking space contracted by 0.23 per cent.
Business Post reports that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited weakened yesterday despite the energy sector closing 1.78 per cent higher, the insurance segment increasing by 0.31 per cent, and the industrial goods counter closing flat.
The All-Share Index (ASI) eased by 44.83 points to 200,913.06 points from 200,957.89 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N29 billion to N128.969 trillion from N128.998 trillion.
eTranzact lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N20.70, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 10.00 per cent to N9.90, Cadbury Nigeria retreated by 10.00 per cent to N63.00, Eterna also fell by 10.00 per cent to N33.75, and DAAR Communications dipped by 9.50 per cent to N1.81.
Conversely, Premier Paints appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N37.50, Zichis gained 9.97 per cent to trade at N13.79, McNichols improved by 9.93 per cent to N7.42, John Holt chalked up 9.86 per cent to close at N18.95, and Trans Nationwide Express went up by 9.75 per cent to N2.59.
On the last day of the week, 595.2 million equities valued at N24.5 billion were transacted in 43,440 deals versus the 678.1 million equities worth N33.1 billion traded in 42,222 deals in the previous session.
This showed an improvement in the number of deals by 2.89 per cent, and a cut in the trading volume and value by 12.22 per cent and 25.98 per cent, respectively.
Wema Bank ended the day as the busiest stock after a turnover of 131.5 million units worth N3.5 billion, Legend Internet traded 41.6 million units valued at N339.2 million, Zichis sold 35.2 million units for N485.6 million, Access Holdings exchanged 29.4 million units worth N764.8 million, and Japaul transacted 21.5 million units valued at N74.6 million.
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