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Oil Rises Amid Progress in US Stimulus Deal

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Oil Importers

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil futures closed higher on Tuesday on the back of news that negotiations with lawmakers in the United States on a spending bill showed progress, supporting the demand outlook.

The international benchmark futures, Brent crude rose by 1.27 per cent or 54 cents to trade at $43.16 per barrel while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped by 1.54 per cent or 63 cents to trade at $41.46 per barrel.

US House Speaker, Mrs Nancy Pelosi, on Tuesday said that a bill for a compromise stimulus package is being written, raising hopes that lawmakers and the White House may finally make progress.

She noted that uncertainties between President Donald Trump and Senate Republicans, who have opposed a package of $1.8 trillion or more, could pose a hurdle.

The market also received a boost on expectations for a weekly decline in US crude stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly figures on US oil supplies first and then the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will back up with the official data on Wednesday.

Analysts expect the EIA to report a fall of 1.9 million barrels in domestic crude supplies. That would mark a second-straight weekly inventory decline.

Oil futures had spent part of the session moving lower amid continued concerns that a surge in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. will limit energy demand.

Several European countries have imposed new restrictions on business activity and travel as COVID-19 cases have risen in recent days. Ireland and Wales imposed serious lockdowns and Italy’s financial centre was planning a curfew.

In the US, the seven-day moving average of new cases, which smooths out daily irregularities, rose to 56,007, its highest since August.

Meanwhile, a virtual committee meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) on Monday did little to calm concerns over waning demand and supply glut, as Russia and Saudi Arabia avoided giving any indication they would reconsider the planned output increase in January.

The current OPEC+ agreement calls for output cuts of 7.7 million barrels a day through December, which will then taper to 5.8 million barrels a day starting in January.

However, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated their commitment to the output-cut agreement and said it encouraged participating countries to increase efforts to rebalance the market.

Libya this month resumed operations at its largest oil field and with plans to ramp up production, it might depress prices in the next coming days.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

OPEC+ Retains Nigeria’s Output Benchmark at 1.5mbpd

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opec oil output

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s daily oil production quota will remain unchanged at 1.5 million barrels per day after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Thursday deferred the commencement of its proposed oil production cuts by a year, until the end of 2026.

The move was necessitated by weak demand and rising output by non-members of the international oil cartel.

OPEC sets a production target for its members as a way of curbing oversupply and ensuring price stability.

The alliance agreed to extend the 2 million barrels per day and the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025 respectively, according to statements issued by the group on Thursday.

However, Nigeria which has been a laggard struggled for years to meet its monthly allocation of 1.78 million barrels per day minus condensates as prescribed by the group.

The country quota was revised then downwards to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2022.

Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day until December 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.

However, eight OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — will now extend their 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter, and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026.

Nigeria, unable to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day, does not belong to this exclusive group. OPEC data puts Africa’s largest oil producer numbers at 1.3 million barrels on average.

Saudi Arabia’s quota will stand at 10.47 million barrels per day; Russia’s at 9.94 million barrels per day; Iraq’s at 4.43 million barrels per day production and Algeria’s at 1 million barrels per day output.

Despite these sets of production trims and ongoing conflict threatening the hydrocarbon-rich Middle Eastern region, global oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of this year, under pressure from a tepid demand outlook.

Brent crude, which Nigeria leverages its headline crude against, is currently trading at $72 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Nigeria has set an ambitious 2025 production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates, as outlined in the draft 2025 appropriation bill of N48.7 trillion. The bill also sets a $77 per barrel benchmark to fund the budget.

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Economy

LCCI Predicts 4% GDP Growth For 2024 Amid Economic Challenges

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LCCI CBN

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) foresees Nigeria’s economy closing the current year in positive growth up to 4 per cent.

This was disclosed by the president of the chamber, Mr Gabriel Idahosa, at the organisation’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Thursday in Lagos.

The LCCI forecast builds up on recent gross domestic product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which points out that Nigeria’s economy grew 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024.

The body said achieving faster recovery requires the fiscal and monetary sides of the economy to promote policies that would encourage private capital flows to the economy.

According to him, fiscal and monetary authorities need to develop a medium-term growth plan anchored on boosting local production, supporting ease of doing business and attracting private investment.

Mr Idahosa said the plan should also focus on developing infrastructure, business-friendly regulatory policies, economic diversification, and employment generation.

“Nigeria is presently confronted with a myriad of challenges including sustained double-digit inflation, a steadily rising debt profile, revenue mobilisation challenges and others.

“We have advocated for a well-coordinated synergy between the fiscal and monetary authorities in engagement with the private sector to navigate the uncertain economic terrain.

“We will continue to engage with government in creating an enabling business environment where the private sector is empowered to grow, create jobs and generate revenue for the government,” he said.

Addressing some economic indices, the LCCI president noted that the private sector was currently plagued with increased borrowing costs and a pressured foreign exchange market.

He said recent hikes in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) had directly translated to higher interest rates, making it more expensive for businesses to access credit for working capital, expansion, and sustainability.

He said that rate hikes alone would not curb inflation without resolving the challenges of the real sector of the economy.

Mr Idahosa added that the country needed to diversify its exports by boosting local crude refining capacity production of petrochemical products and accelerating reforms in the and gas sector.

“The chamber looks forward to the sustained implementation of naira payments for crude oil sales to the Dangote refinery and other local refineries, which started on October 1, 2024.

“We urge the government to summon the courage to be consistent with the oil and gas sector reforms and implement the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) fully.

“We see the long-term gains of these reforms if they are implemented under a conducive regulatory environment,” he said.

Speaking on the projected N47.9 trillion 2025 budget presented recently by President Bola Tinubu, Mr Idahosa said the key parameters and assumptions on which the budget was proposed were too optimistic in the face of some economic and social indicators.

On her part, Mrs Chinyere Almona, Director General, LCCI, urged government to create an enabling environment for businesses to thrive to enhance their productivity and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.

She noted that while the year was filled with very difficult reforms, businesses should stay the course on these reforms and things would improve.

Mrs Almona urged businesses to think of alternatives to improve efficiency, attract finance and be more productive, while hoping for the next year to be better.

She also called on authorities to focus on non-oil exports to attract more foreign exchange.

“When we talk of exports, we are not just talking of exporting raw materials but processing materials to command top dollar in the export market.

“At the chamber, we are looking for ways to improve our export and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) groups to improve their capacity and productivity to export more, ” she said.

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Economy

FrieslandCampina Sinks Unlisted Securities Exchange by 0.20%

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unlisted securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc pulled down the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.20 per cent fall on Thursday, December 5.

The bourse, as a result, lost N2.14 billion as the market capitalisation wrapped the session at N1.056 trillion compared with the N1.058 trillion it closed in the preceding session.

Equally, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropped 6.13 points to settle for the session at 3,013.41 points compared with 3,019.54 points recorded on Wednesday.

During the trading day, the price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc went down by N1.10 to trade at N40.36 per share versus the N41.46 per share it ended at midweek.

Yesterday, the volume of shares bought and sold by the market participants significantly decreased by 99.9 per cent to 74,381 units from the 127.5 million units traded in the preceding session.

In the same vein, the value of securities transacted by investors on Thursday shrank by 95.4 per cent to N2.7 million from N58.2 million, as the number of deals depreciated by 75 per cent to five deals from the 20 deals recorded a day earlier.

Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc came next with 752.2 million units sold for N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third place after trading 297.3 million units worth N5.3 million.

Despite its exit from the trading platform, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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