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Economy

Oil Shrinks on Jittery Demand, Strong US Dollar

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil futures fell for a third day on Wednesday as ongoing concerns about demand, the strengthening Dollar and expectations for more interest rate hikes by major central banks weighed on the market.

As a result, the Brent crude futures shrank by $1.84 or 2 per cent to $92.45 per barrel, while the United States West Texas Intermediate crude futures contracted by $2.08 or 2.3 per cent to $87.27 per barrel.

Prices depreciated yesterday as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the United States Energy Department slashed their demand outlooks.

OPEC cut its 2022 forecast for growth in world oil demand for a fourth time since April and trimmed next year’s projection, citing slowing economies, the resurgence of China’s COVID-19 containment measures and high inflation as the reasons.

“The world economy has entered into a time of heightened uncertainty and rising challenges, amid ongoing high inflation levels, monetary tightening by major central banks, high sovereign debt levels in many regions as well as ongoing supply issues,” OPEC said in the report.

“The slowing economic growth and a possible resurgence of COVID restrictions in China and elsewhere are expected to impact oil demand in 2022 and 2023,” OPEC added.

Oil demand will increase by 2.64 million barrels per day or 2.7 per cent in 2022, the cartel said in a monthly report, down 460,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast.

The lower demand outlook gives additional context for last week’s move by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, to make their largest cut in output since 2020 to support the market.

Together with allies, including Russia, OPEC sent prices rising when it agreed to cut supply by 2 million barrels per day.

Amid this, OPEC is pumping far less than called for by the OPEC+ agreement due to under-investment in oilfields by some members, including Nigeria.

The United States criticised the decision. However, on Wednesday, the US Energy Department also lowered its expectations for global output and consumption in 2023.

The market is under pressure as well from the American Dollar, which continued its rally against other low-yielding currencies.

The US Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep raising interest rates to tackle high inflation has boosted yields, making the US currency more attractive to foreign investors.

Earlier in the week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for 2023 and warned of increasing risk of a global recession.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Guinness Delights Investors With N7 Interim Dividend as H1’26 Profit Soars 53%

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the nation’s top brewers, Guinness Nigeria Plc, is paying an interim dividend of N7 per share to its shareholders for the period ended June 30, 2026.

The funds should, on August 10, 2026, hit the bank accounts of investors whose names appear in the Register of Members as of the close of business on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, a regulatory note from the organisation disclosed.

The firm has informed shareholders who have yet to complete the e-dividend registration to download the Registrar’s E-Dividend Mandate Activation Form, which is also available on its website, so as not to be left out of the cash reward for the first half of this year.

In the first six months of 2026, Guinness Nigeria grew its net profit by 53.33 per cent to N25.3 billion from N16.5 billion in the same period of 2025, amid improved top line and better management of administrative, marketing and distribution costs.

The revenue for the period under consideration rose to N265.0 billion from N237.0 billion, boosted by domestic sales of its products, which accounted for N260.9 billion compared with N237.0 billion a year earlier. The balance was from its export sales. This showed that over 98 per cent of the company’s earnings are from sales in Nigeria.

In the first half of the year, Guinness Nigeria improved its gross profit to N97.5 billion from N89.4 billion in the same period of 2025, as its finance income, arising from financial assets and others, stood at N1.2 billion compared with N110.7 million in H1 of 2026.

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Economy

FG Seeks Stronger Domestic Capital to Drive Nigeria’s Economic Growth

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to mobilising domestic capital to finance Nigeria’s long-term development, saying stronger local investment will be critical to accelerating economic transformation and attracting private sector participation.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, stated this while speaking at the 6th Annual General Assembly of the Association of Nigerian Development Finance Institutions (ANDFI) in Abuja on Thursday.

The Minister’s remarks were contained in a statement on Friday, July 24, by his Senior Special Assistant on Communications and Press Secretary, Mrs Maryann Duke.

Addressing the conference with the theme, Unlocking Domestic Capital for Development Financing, Mr Oyedele said Nigeria must harness its domestic financial resources and strengthen institutions that can channel capital into productive sectors of the economy.

He noted that despite increasingly difficult global financing conditions, the country possesses substantial domestic savings, institutional assets and private capital that can be leveraged to fund infrastructure, industrialisation, agriculture, housing, innovation and other critical sectors.

According to the minister, domestic capital should not be viewed as an alternative to foreign investment but as the foundation for attracting sustainable international investment.

“Our focus is to build an economy where confidence leads capital. By strengthening macroeconomic stability, deepening our financial markets and empowering development finance institutions to catalyse private investment, we are unlocking Nigeria’s enormous domestic potential to finance inclusive and sustainable growth,” Mr Oyedele said.

He said the federal government’s ongoing economic reforms under the Renewed Hope Agenda are beginning to deliver positive outcomes, including improved investor confidence, stronger external reserves, enhanced revenue generation and renewed international confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

The Minister identified five priority areas for unlocking domestic capital, including expanding investment opportunities for households, deepening institutional capital through pension and insurance assets, strengthening credit enhancement mechanisms, broadening local currency financing through the capital market, and building stronger development finance institutions capable of attracting larger volumes of private investment.

Mr Oyedele also called on development finance institutions to move beyond conventional lending by helping to structure bankable projects, reduce investment risks, support policy reforms and create financing ecosystems that encourage greater private sector participation.

He reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to working with development finance institutions, financial regulators, investors and development partners to develop a financing framework that will support businesses, create jobs, accelerate industrialisation and promote inclusive economic growth across the country.

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Economy

Organized Private Sector Raises Concerns Over Proposed Hike in Pension Contributions

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The plan by the National Pension Commission (PenCom) to increase mandatory pension contributions and introduce an additional 3 per cent mandatory annual contribution equivalent to 3 per cent of the total wage bill is not going down well with the Organised Private Sector in Nigeria.

This group comprises the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the National Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), the Nigerian Association of Small Scale Industrialists (NASSI), and 25 sectoral employer associations.

In a statement made available to Business Post, the group described the proposal as a “Greek gift” to Nigerian workers because of the prevailing economic conditions in the country.

OPS argued that under the Pension Reform Act 2014, Nigeria’s minimum pension contribution already stands at 18 per cent of an employee’s monthly emoluments, comprising 10 per cent from the employer and 8 per cent from the employee.

“This is broadly comparable with the OECD average effective mandatory pension contribution rate of 18.8 per cent at the average-wage level in 2024.

“Nigeria’s existing contribution rate therefore cannot reasonably be regarded as inadequate, based on contribution percentages alone.

“Any proposal for an increase must be supported by Nigeria – specific actuarial evidence demonstrating that the current rate is insufficient and that a higher rate would not undermine employment, wages, compliance and enterprise sustainability,” it noted.

OPSN said the government’s attention should be directed toward reining in inflation, preserving workers’ immediate cash flow, and promoting business sustainability to create decent jobs and improve welfare.

It also asked for a detailed assessment to determine the likely effects of the proposal on employment costs, wage growth, recruitment, job security, investment, production costs, inflation, business formalisation and MSME sustainability.

The group stated that while the private sector is not entirely opposed to future adjustments, any increase must be the product of constructive, transparent social dialogue among all critical stakeholders and delayed until broader economic stability is achieved.

It stressed that no adjustment should be introduced without adequate consideration of its impact on existing jobs, future recruitment, inflation rate and the capacity of businesses to remain competitive and sustainable.

Also commenting on the matter in Lagos, the Director-General of NECA, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, described the proposed hike as both premature and counterproductive, noting that, “The OPSN supports efforts aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s pension system and improving retirement outcomes for workers.

“However, announcing that contribution rates will increase while consultations are still ongoing risks prejudging the outcome of the process and reducing subsequent stakeholder engagements to a mere formality.”

He stressed that previous adjustments to pension contribution rates were preceded by extensive engagement among government, employers, organised labour and other relevant stakeholders.

“Any proposed adjustment must be supported by credible actuarial, economic and employment-impact assessments. It must also emerge from genuine and transparent social dialogue. Retirement security should not be pursued in a manner that threatens the businesses and jobs upon which the pension system itself depends,” he submitted.

On his part, the DG of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said, “Businesses are already contending with high energy costs, elevated interest rates, exchange-rate volatility, multiple regulatory obligations, weak consumer demand and rising production expenses. Imposing an additional statutory payroll cost without a comprehensive impact assessment will place further pressure on already struggling enterprises.”

He explained that higher employment costs could compel businesses to slow recruitment, postpone wage reviews, reduce staff strength, increase outsourcing, suspend expansion plans or pass additional costs to consumers through higher prices.

“The proposed increase may directly raise the existing employee contribution, but its wider consequences could still be borne by workers through weaker wage growth, reduced employment opportunities, job losses and higher prices of goods and services,” he added

The DG of NACCIMA, Mr Sola Obadimu, in his submission, warned against imposing additional financial levies on a struggling business environment, saying, “At a time when businesses are struggling to recover from prolonged economic pressures and the Federal Government is implementing reforms intended to improve competitiveness, imposing another statutory financial obligation on employers could undermine the benefits of those reforms.”

He maintained that government policies must be properly coordinated and evaluated based on their cumulative impact on businesses.

“A reform cannot be considered successful merely because it promises improved retirement benefits. Its impact on employment, investment, wage growth, prices, compliance and business survival must also be carefully considered,” he stated.

The DG of NASSI, Mr Ifeanyi Oputa, while speaking on the issue, stressed that micro, small and medium-sized enterprises would be disproportionately affected by any increase in mandatory employer pension contributions.

“MSMEs operate with narrow margins and limited access to affordable finance. Many are still struggling with rising energy costs, declining purchasing power, multiple levies and increasing operating expenses. An additional statutory burden could threaten their survival and discourage them from employing workers formally,” he said.

Mr Oputa warned that the proposal could also deepen non-compliance and push more businesses and workers into informal employment arrangements outside the pension system.

“A policy intended to strengthen the pension system must not produce the opposite result by shrinking the number of formal employers and contributors,” he added.

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