Economy
Oil Sinks Lower to $66 on Dampening Demand Expectations
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil dropped to $66 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest since May, pressured by concerns about weaker demand as COVID-19 cases rise coupled with a stronger US Dollar.
The circulation of the Delta variant in areas of low vaccination is driving transmission of COVID-19, the World Health Organization said, as coronavirus-related deaths have spiked in the United States over the past month.
China has had to restrict movement to curb the spread, further presenting an unfavourable outlook after it partially closed one of its biggest ports and major oil hub earlier this month, signalling that weaker oil imports are on the cards.
Both Brent and the American crude have declined for six days in a row, the longest losing streak since a six-day drop for both contracts that ended on February 28, 2020.
It was worse for both futures yesterday as the Brent crude went down by 36 cents or 0.6 per cent to $66.87 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 42 cents or 0.63 per cent to $64.04 per barrel.
Market analysts pointed out that prices only reacted to the potential withdrawal of monetary support, the chaotic Taliban takeover of Afghanistan that threatens another migrant crisis and worries about the continuous spread of the virus keep the dollar in demand, which, in turn, acts as a brake on any attempted oil-price rally.
On the Dollar front, it hit a nine-month high, weighing on dollar-priced commodities. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive to other currency holders and tends to weigh on prices.
This is coming after it was suggested the US Federal Reserve is about to start winding down its bond-buying program that kept the world’s biggest economy going through the worst of the pandemic crisis.
Crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to August 13 to 435.5 million barrels, exceeding estimates for a 1.1 million-barrel drop, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In the bad news category, US fuel stocks rose by 696,000 barrels in the week to 228.2 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) last week trimmed its oil demand outlook due to the spread of the Delta variant. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), however, left its demand forecasts unchanged.
Traders may start to wonder when OPEC will lower its demand forecasts. Furthermore, some traders believe that OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, may leave current production levels unchanged in September or may even lower them to make up for any lost demand.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.
The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.
She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.
According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.
“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.
Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.
She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.
The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.
She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.
Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.
“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and Afriland Properties Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.61 per cent on Tuesday, July 14.
CSCS Plc saw its stock value drop N9.08 to close at N82.40 per share compared with the preceding session’s N91.48 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 17 Kobo to sell at N15.00 per unit versus N15.70 per unit.
The losses recorded by the two securities pulled back the market capitalisation by N41.64 billion to N2.546 trillion from N2.587 trillion, and cracked the NASD Security Index (NSI) by 69.36 points to 4,242.31 points from 4,311.67 points.
It was observed that the exchange witnessed two price advancers during the session, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which gained N1.37 to end at N151.37 per share compared with the previous day’s N150.00 per share, and Food Concepts Plc chalked up 5 Kobo to settle at N2.50 per unit versus N2.45 per unit.
The volume of securities traded by market participants surged by 50.7 per cent to 13.7 million units from the previous 9.1 million units, while the value of securities went down by 79.7 per cent to N65.2 million from N320.4 million, and the number of deals crashed by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from the previous session’s 28 deals.
At the close of transactions, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc, which exchanged 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units transacted for N5.2 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira weakened against the US Dollar by N3.43 or 0.25 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, July 14, to close at N1,383.08/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,379.65/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N6.80 to settle at N1,848.18/£1 versus Monday’s closing price of N1,854.98/£1, and lost N7.37 on the Euro to sell at N1,583.76/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,576.39/€1.
At the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira slumped against the Dollar yesterday by N5 to quote at N1,405/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,400/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,388/$1.
The squeeze at the market came as demand rose. Total dollar volume hovered around $1 billion with NFEM interbank FX turnover surging to $243.095 million, up 182 per cent from $86.136 million the previous day.
The interbank deals among financial institutions or market makers also increased to 140 from 85 previously reported at the official window on Monday. This indicates a heightened rush of large-scale currency trading in the wholesale forex market.
Shifts in FX supply and demand triggered fluctuations in the NFEM window. Still, FX analysts maintained a positive outlook on the naira as gross external reserves continue to approach $52 billion.
Strong foreign reserves have supported market confidence, as foreign portfolio investors continue to flock to the fixed-income market.
There are also indications of pressure to come as after Dangote Petroleum Refinery scrapped its Naira-denominated pricing model for petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, replacing it with a Dollar-based framework that ties domestic fuel prices directly to exchange rate movements.
Meanwhile, in the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped about 3.5 per cent to $64,723.42, while Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.5 per cent to trade at $1,873.15, after US inflation cooled more than expected, sharply reducing market odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
June headline inflation slowed to 3.5 per cent and core inflation eased to 2.6 per cent, lifting cryptocurrencies.
Solana (SOL) rose by 3.8 per cent to $77.90, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.6 per cent to $1.10, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 3.4 per cent to $0.1640, Dogecoin (DOGE) soared by 3.0 per cent to $0.0744, Binance Coin (BNB) added 1.9 per cent to sell for $579.51, and TRON (TRX) improved by 0.7 per cent to $0.3270, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
