Economy
Oil Slides As IEA Warns Vaccine Won’t Help Demand Yet
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices cut their bullish run on Thursday, November 12 as the International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned that the vaccine breakthrough won’t quickly revive markets.
The agency further stated that it has lowered its forecasts for global oil demand as a result of the new lockdown measures put in place in Europe, which it said could affect demand for the commodity.
This affected the prices of crude oil yesterday and led to the 47 cents or 1.07 per cent decline suffered by the Brent crude, which traded at $43.33 per barrel. Also, the price of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude went down by 33 cents or 0.8 per cent to $41.12 per barrel.
Prices of crude had hit their best in more than two months this week following news about progress on coronavirus vaccine, but IEA said yesterday that the use of fuel won’t experience any significant boost from vaccines until the second half of next year.
The Paris-based organisation, which advises most major economies, reduced oil-demand projections for this quarter sharply, by 1.2 million barrels a day.
Global oil consumption is now on track to slump by 8.8 million barrels per day this year, averaging 91.3 million a day, according to the IEA. It also reduced estimates for 2021, lowering its first-quarter projection by 700,000 barrels a day, though demand is still set to stage a rebound of 5.8 million barrels on average next year.
Earlier, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had said it expects world oil demand to contract by around 9.8 million barrels per day in 2020, reflecting a downward revision of 300,000 barrels from October’s forecast.
The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia had initially aimed to restore some of the supply they’re keeping offline at the start of next year, but is increasingly focused on delaying the move as the outlook for consumption, combined with rising supply in places like Libya puts pressure on the cartel and its allies as they prepare to meet in a few weeks.
The IEA in its report also noted that if OPEC+ proceeds with its scheduled supply increase of almost 2 million barrels a day in January, the producers will fail to cut global oil inventories during the first quarter.
The agency noted that world output could be 1 million barrels a day higher this month as the US recovers from hurricane disruptions and as Libya resumes exports.
Libya, one of the three OPEC nations exempt from the agreement to cut output, tripled production and is now pumping more than 1 million barrels a day, and could average just below this level in November.
Also adding to the bearish outcome was news that American’s crude inventories increased by 4.28 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated further against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N1.50 or 0.09 per cent to close at N1,533.00/$1 on Friday, December 13 versus the N1,534.50/$1 it was transacted on Thursday.
The local currency has continued to benefit from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this month.
The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN.
Market analysts say the publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira in the official market and tackled speculation.
In the official market yesterday, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N12.58 to wrap the session at N1,942.19/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,954.77/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N2.44 to close at N1,612.85/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,610.41/€1.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the greenback on Friday by N30 to sell for N1,650/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,680/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely positive as investors banked on recent signals, including fresh support from US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, as well as interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Ripple (XRP) added 7.3 per cent to sell at $2.49, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 3.5 per cent to $728.28, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 2.4 per cent to trade at $1.11, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.3 per cent to $122.56, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.9 per cent to settle at $101,766.17, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 1.2 per cent to $0.4064, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.7 per cent to $226.15 and Ethereum (ETH) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $3,925.35, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
For the fourth consecutive trading session, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited closed higher on Friday by 0.63 per cent on sustained renewed buying pressure.
Apart from the energy and industrial goods sectors which closed flat, every other sector ended in the green territory, according to data obtained from the bourse.
Business Post reports that the insurance index appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the banking space improved by 0.63 per cent, and the consumer goods counter expanded by 0.46 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 617.47 points to settle at 99,378.06 points compared with the preceding day’s 98,760.59 points and the market capitalisation went up by 375 billion to close at N60.242 trillion, in contrast to Thursday’s closing value of N59.867 trillion.
The volume of transactions on Customs Street yesterday grew by 11.13 per cent to 544.2 million shares from the 489.7 million shares transacted a day earlier.
The value of transactions increased during the session by 49.30 per cent to N10.6 billion from N7.1 billion and the number of deals went up by 1.93 per cent to 8,464 deals from the 8,304 deals posted in the previous trading session.
The busiest equity for the trading day was Japaul with the sale of 71.7 million units valued at N158.0 million, eTranzact exchanged 70.7 million units worth N477.5 million, Tantalizers sold 57.3 million units for N101.2 million, FCMB traded 33.0 million units worth N297.3 million, and Universal Insurance transacted 27.1 million units valued at N9.6 million.
A total of 36 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart, while 15 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The trio of Aradel Holdings, Ikeja Hotel and Caverton gained 10.00 per cent each to trade at N550.00, N8.80, and N1.98, respectively, as Africa Prudential rose by 9.87 per cent to N17.25 and Golden Guinea Breweries soared by 9.64 per cent to N8.64.
On the flip side, Austin Laz lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1.62, ABC Transport crashed by 8.00 per cent to N1.15, Royal Exchange slumped by 7.69 per cent to 60 Kobo, Secure Electronic Technology plunged by 5.26 per cent to 54 Kobo, and The Initiates crumbled by 4.26 per cent to N2.25.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil climbed by about 2 per cent on Friday on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the US could boost fuel demand.
Brent futures went up by $1.08 or 1.5 per cent to settle at $74.49 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by $1.27 or 1.8 per cent to close at $71.29 per barrel.
European Union ambassadors agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet.
The sanctions would target vessels from third countries supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and add more individuals and entities to the sanctions list.
The sanctions package is likely to be formally adopted at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday and will target close to 30 entities, over 50 individuals and 45 tankers.
Also, the US is considering similar moves that might target some Russian oil exports, before Donald Trump returns to the White House.
Britain, France and Germany told the United Nations Security Council they were ready if necessary to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The move comes as Iran has suffered a series of strategic setbacks, including Israel’s assault on Tehran’s proxy militias Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the ouster of Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Meanwhile, data from China this week showed that crude imports in the world’s top importer grew annually in November for the first time in seven months.
There are expectations that China’s crude imports will remain elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day from 990,000 barrels per day last month, citing China’s stimulus measures.
The Paris-based energy watchdog forecast an oil surplus for next year, when nations not in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, OPEC+ group, are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day, driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the US.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), an OPEC member, plans to reduce oil shipments early next year as OPEC+ seeks tighter discipline.
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